4695 Autumn Woods Way · Tallahassee, FL 32303

$210,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 910 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 1979 9,147 sqft lot Est $180k · 17% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.1/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable home in northwest Tallahassee. Near shopping, parks and Lake Jackson.

Key facts

• Fresh paint
• Recent roof
• Ample cabinet space

Tags

• BRICK-FACED HOME
• FRESH PAINT
• NEW INSULATED VINYL WINDOWS
• RECENT ROOF
• LVP FLOORING
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: For sale

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Electric power
• Home design: Single-story; Brick, fiber cement, and wood siding exterior
• Construction: Brick construction; Fiber cement siding; Wood siding
• Exterior features: Privacy fence; Paved, public maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 2 (10x11); Bedroom 3 (10x11)
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Utility room; Ceiling fan(s)
• Laundry & utility: Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $29 ($352/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (20.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (20.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.2% in Tallahassee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#19 in FL, #429 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D.
• Leon (urban): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #33 of 73 in FL (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Springwood Elementary School (math 32% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,841 of 2,144 statewide, top 86%, 423 students, 69% FRL); Griffin Middle School (math 16% / reading 25%, grade F, #556 of 571 statewide, top 98%, 532 students, 77% FRL); Amos P. Godby High School (math 24% / reading 32%, grade F, #464 of 667 statewide, top 70%, 1,444 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 45% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Leon average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 238 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,765 units permitted in Leon County in 2024 (975 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Leon County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $210k implies a 162% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,010 (20.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.60%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $180,180
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5660 Maple Forest Dr	0.24mi	3/1.5	910 (0%)	4mo	$205,000	$225	84
5633 Maple Forest Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	900 (-1%)	14mo	$225,000	$250	78
5620 Cypress Cir	0.20mi	3/1.0	850 (-7%)	2mo	$185,000	$218	74
4501 Hickory Forest Cir	0.46mi	3/1.5	910 (0%)	2mo	$175,000	$192	74
4520 Hickory Forest Cir	0.45mi	3/1.5	910 (0%)	8mo	$180,000	$198	71
6426 Bombadil Dr	0.58mi	2/1.0 (-1)	912 (+0%)	3mo	$176,000	$193	62
6454 Bombadil Dr	0.60mi	2/1.0 (-1)	916 (+1%)	13mo	$170,000	$186	51
5798 Japonica Ct	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,032 (+13%)	5mo	$195,000	$189	51
5715 Bombadil Ct	0.54mi	2/1.0 (-1)	949 (+4%)	10mo	$170,000	$179	51
4812 Sampler Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,014 (+11%)	6mo	$229,000	$226	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-32,034
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-24,961
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32303

• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 238
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,670 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$101 /mo · $1,216/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $29

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,633

Max offer price $210,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $148	-5% $89	+0% $29	+5% $-30	+10% $-90
Rent	-10% $-103	-5% $-37	+0% $29	+5% $95	+10% $161
Rate	-1.0pp $135	-0.5pp $83	base $29	+0.5pp $-25	+1.0pp $-80

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4895 Leah Ln Tallahassee, FL	2.0	2.0	1008	$1,800	$1.79	15d	1	0.93mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $210,000 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,000 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,000 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $210,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $210,000 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $210,000 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $210,000 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $210,000 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $210,000 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $215,000 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,000 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $215,000 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,000 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 39 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $215,000 Active 38 DOM
17. 2026-04-22
    listed $215,000 Active
18. 2018-09-20
    soldstatus $80,000
19. 2018-09-13
    soldstatus $80,000 80-char remark

    Show marketing remark (80 chars)

    Affordable home in northwest Tallahassee. Near shopping, parks and Lake Jackson.

20. 2018-06-19
    listed $85,000 80-char remark

    Show marketing remark (80 chars)

    Affordable home in northwest Tallahassee. Near shopping, parks and Lake Jackson.

21. 1996-07-09
    soldstatus $60,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,216 · $101/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,743 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$527/yr (+$44/mo · 43.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,041
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$1,216
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,603
• − Management: −$1,603
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$3,303
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$793
• After-tax cash flow: $1,145/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Leon
• NCES district ID: 1201110
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,339
• Composite: 42.84/100
• National rank: #3131
• State rank: #33 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tallahassee

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #429

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C+ Employment D Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Leon County · 294,472 people
• City population: 294,472
• Metro: Tallahassee, FL
• Population (ZIP): 49,785
• Household income: $62,275
• Rent vs Own: 48.8% rent · 51.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2919.0

Population outlook (Leon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,507 people
• By 2030: 330,677 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 358,465 · +13.6%
• By 2050: 386,804 · +22.6%
• By 2075: 465,480 · +47.5%
• By 2100: 519,959 · +64.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 34% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Leon

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.8) · D 60.3% · R 38.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 24.3pp · 2024: 21.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.8 2020: D+28.3 2016: D+25.1 2012: D+23.6 2008: D+24.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -255.24%
• Current HPI: 241.3131
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Tallahassee, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+255.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $215,000 CATRS
• 2018-09-20 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2018-09-13 Sold (MLS) $80,000 CATRS
• 2018-06-19 Listed $85,000 CATRS
• 1996-07-09 Sold (Public Records) $60,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,216 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.