928 Capracotta Dr · Roman Forest, TX 77336

$180,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,451 sqft · SingleFamily · 16 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $183k · at est. $183/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks

The Kitson Floor Plan - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $180,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family property; Kitson plan
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,451

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home (Kitson plan)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $181k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $156 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $181k).
• Recommended offer: $178k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 5.0% in Roman Forest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#595 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Huffman ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #500 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 585 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($178k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $178,275 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.69%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $182,826
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
934 Capracotta Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+1%)	1mo	$244,990	$168	97
31418 Pratola Serra Cir	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,451 (0%)	1mo	$189,990	$131	95
31406 Pratola Serra Cir	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,451 (0%)	1mo	$175,840	$121	95
31408 Pratola Serra Cir	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+1%)	1mo	$183,990	$126	94
903 Coperchiata Cir	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,411 (-3%)	1mo	$253,990	$180	91
939 Pertuso Ln	0.10mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,531 (+6%)	1mo	$165,790	$108	79
933 Pertuso Ln	0.09mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,535 (+6%)	1mo	$143,340	$93	78
914 Capracotta Dr	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,655 (+14%)	1mo	$225,690	$136	68
929 Capracotta Dr	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (+14%)	1mo	$163,990	$99	68
905 Coperchiata Cir	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (+14%)	1mo	$189,990	$115	66
31504 Olivella Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-10%)	1mo	$249,990	$192	63
31418 Casacalenda Ln	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (+14%)	1mo	$169,990	$103	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-19,271
• Equity at exit: $26,986

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-3,435
• Equity at exit: $15,649

Cash invested: $50,677 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77336

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 585
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,012 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$949
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$226 /mo · $2,715/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$183
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $156

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,815

Max offer price $180,990

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,248
• Closing costs: $5,430
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
31416 Pratola Serra Cir Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,675	$1.15	2d	1	0.10mi
934 Pertuso Ln Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,800	$1.32	24d	1	0.14mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $183 · $2,196/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $180,990 Pending 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,990 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,990 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,990 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,990 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $180,990 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $180,990 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $180,990 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $180,990 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $180,990 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    remarks 599-char remark
12. 2026-06-02
    days on marketlisting id $180,990 Active 1 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,990 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    remarks 419-char remark
15. 2026-05-31
    listed $180,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,143
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,138
• − Property taxes: −$2,715
• − Insurance: −$905
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,931
• − Management: −$1,931
• − HOA: −$2,196
• − Depreciation: −$5,265
• Taxable loss: −$939
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$225
• After-tax cash flow: $2,093/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It offers a spacious open floorplan and a private owner's suite. Potential buyers would appreciate updates to the exterior and interior paint, landscaping, and kitchen appliances to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property.
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve the home's appeal to potential buyers.
• Both Adding smart home features — Enhances convenience and adds value to the property.
• Resale Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring improves the home's appeal to potential buyers.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Enhances convenience and adds value to the property. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring improves the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Huffman ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823820
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $65,848
• Composite: 30.61/100
• National rank: #6195
• State rank: #500 of 826 in TX

Livability — Roman Forest

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #595
• US rank: #11338

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,342
• Household income: $96,404
• Rent vs Own: 21.8% rent · 78.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 377.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.59%
• Current HPI: 472.03
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B