26427 Virginia Wild Rye Ln · Houston, TX 77493

$299,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,100 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition 6,242 sqft lot $142/sqft · 18% below area Est $365k · 18% under $183/mo HOA · 7% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 6,242 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Municipal Utility District disclosure available; Seller disclosure available
• HOA & community: Homeowners association (KRJ); Annual association fee: $2,200; Association amenities include maintained grounds, picnic area, playground, pickleball court, park, and pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (all main rooms listed on first floor); Entry level: First floor
• Construction: Built in 2025; Brick and wood siding construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot; Association pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (first floor); Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor); Bedroom (first floor); Bedroom (first floor); 4 possible bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom (first floor)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Office; Dining room; Living room; 9 total rooms; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-44 ($-523/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $291k (2.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (17.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $247k (17.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 2728 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $246,723 (17.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.62%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $365,201
• List price: $299,000
• Delta: -18.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6634 Sienna Sunrise Ln	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,013 (-4%)	0mo	$305,990	$152	76
26410 Wild Stonecrop Ln	0.12mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,231 (+6%)	1mo	$340,990	$153	74
26527 Ivory Petal Dr	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,083 (-1%)	1mo	$309,140	$148	74
6614 Sienna Sunrise Ln	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,013 (-4%)	1mo	$309,790	$154	73
6630 Sienna Sunrise Ln	0.26mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,162 (+3%)	1mo	$293,490	$136	73
6710 Sienna Sunrise Ln	0.23mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,263 (+8%)	0mo	$328,590	$145	67
6426 Green Pedal Ln	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,908 (-9%)	1mo	$294,440	$154	55
26803 Scarlet Willow Dr	0.64mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,968 (-6%)	0mo	$275,240	$140	52
6427 Green Pedal Ln	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,880 (-10%)	1mo	$308,990	$164	52
6674 Iron Clover Dr	0.30mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,400 (+14%)	1mo	$329,990	$137	51
7310 Dover View Ln	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,916 (-9%)	1mo	$296,000	$154	50
25830 Grassland Prairie Dr	0.71mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,391 (+14%)	1mo	$485,000	$203	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-58,464
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-82,458
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 2728
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,467 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$117 /mo · $1,405/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$183
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$518
• Net cashflow: $-44

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,522

Max offer price $291,304

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $126	-5% $41	+0% $-44	+5% $-128	+10% $-213
Rent	-10% $-238	-5% $-141	+0% $-44	+5% $54	+10% $151
Rate	-1.0pp $107	-0.5pp $32	base $-44	+0.5pp $-121	+1.0pp $-200

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26642 Prairie Smoke Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1949	$2,300	$1.18	44d	1	0.19mi
6758 Sunset Velvet Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1580	$2,350	$1.49	44d	1	0.29mi
26811 Prairie Smoke Ln Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1656	$2,250	$1.36	44d	1	0.36mi
26802 Cenzontle Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$1,850	$1.26	44d	1	0.64mi
7402 Clover Chase Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1840	$2,400	$1.30	44d	1	0.74mi
7410 Hillside Arbor Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2289	$2,400	$1.05	44d	1	0.75mi
6303 Marigold Blaze Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,250	$1.53	44d	1	1.02mi
6427 Seafoam Lake Dr Katy, TX	4.0	4.0	2479	$3,000	$1.21	0d	1	1.08mi
27507 Hudson Sands Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2294	$3,000	$1.31	18d	1	1.21mi
5819 Bright Keel Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2598	$2,400	$0.92	44d	1	1.35mi
27327 Blue Pool Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2100	$2,600	$1.24	44d	1	1.37mi
3084 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2085	$2,325	$1.12	13d	1	1.43mi
3081 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,275	$1.36	25d	1	1.44mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2039	$3,000	$1.47	21d	1	1.45mi
3072 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2279	$2,550	$1.12	23d	1	1.45mi
3053 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2085	$2,440	$1.17	16d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $183 · $2,196/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,000 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,000 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $299,000 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-05-01
    listed $305,000 Active 825-char remark
15. 2026-04-29
    historical $305,000 825-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,405 · $117/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,472 · $456/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,066/yr (+$339/mo · 289.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,607
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$1,405
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,369
• − Management: −$2,369
• − HOA: −$2,196
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$5,673
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,362
• After-tax cash flow: $839/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and the home's overall appearance.
• Resale Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase the home's curb appeal and attract potential buyers.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to both buyers and renters.
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Upgrading to more modern or energy-efficient appliances can increase the home's value and appeal to potential buyers.
• Rental Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can help reduce energy costs and attract renters who value energy efficiency and convenience.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and the home's overall appearance. ↑
• Resale Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase the home's curb appeal and attract potential buyers. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to both buyers and renters. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Upgrading to more modern or energy-efficient appliances can increase the home's value and appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Rental Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can help reduce energy costs and attract renters who value energy efficiency and convenience. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 913.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Price Changed $299,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $305,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Coming Soon $305,000 HARMLS