5309 Leawood · Pine Bluff, AR 71603

$75,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,134 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 128 Days on market

Built 1971 $66/sqft · 27% below area Est $103k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Income-producing 3-bedroom 1.5 bath property in the Watson Chapel School District with tenant in place. Roof replaced in '23. Stable rental history and consistent demand in this area. Showings granted with proof of funds or lender pre-approval only. DO NOT DISTURB TENANT.

Key facts

• Roof replaced
• Parking
• Built 1971

Tags

• WATSON CHAPEL SCHOOL DISTRICT
• ROOF REPLACED

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $75,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$102,649) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $226 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($913 rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#483 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Watson Chapel School District (urban): math 10% / reading 12% proficiency, ranked #228 of 238 in AR (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 211 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 62 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $75k implies a 355% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $66,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.91%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $102,649
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: -26.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2304 Dianne Dr	0.38mi	3/1.5	1,131 (-0%)	5mo	$147,200	$130	76
5012 Faucett	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,162 (+2%)	3mo	$114,900	$99	74
5110 Faucett Rd	0.29mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,224 (+8%)	1mo	$50,000	$41	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $2,238
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $20,479
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71603

• Home prices YoY: -26.0%
• Active inventory: 211
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $913 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $849/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$192
• Net cashflow: $226

Break-even live

Break-even rent $627

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $268	-5% $247	+0% $226	+5% $205	+10% $184
Rent	-10% $154	-5% $190	+0% $226	+5% $262	+10% $298
Rate	-1.0pp $264	-0.5pp $245	base $226	+0.5pp $207	+1.0pp $187

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4324 Union Ave Pine Bluff, AR	2.0	1.0	702	$650	$0.93	45d	1	1.18mi
3109 Daffodil St Pine Bluff, AR	3.0	1.0	980	$825	$0.84	45d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $75,000 Active 128 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $75,000 Active 126 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 125 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 124 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 123 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 122 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,000 Active 120 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $75,000 Active 119 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 116 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $75,000 Active 115 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 114 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $75,000 Active 111 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 110 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 109 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 108 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 107 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $75,000 Active 106 DOM
18. 2026-02-13
    listed $75,000 New Listing 272-char remark

    Show marketing remark (272 chars)

    Income-producing 3-bedroom 1.5 bath property in the Watson Chapel School District with tenant in place. Roof replaced in '23. Stable rental history and consistent demand in this area. Showings granted with proof of funds or lender pre-approval only. DO NOT DISTURB TENANT.

19. 2023-07-02
    historical $850
20. 2022-03-07
    price $850
21. 2015-01-29
    soldstatus $16,500
22. 2015-01-26
    soldstatus $16,500 137-char remark

    Show marketing remark (137 chars)

    Property is occupied and occupants are not to be disturbed or contacted. Being sold as is. Contact listing agent for bidding instructions

23. 2015-01-26
    listed $16,500 137-char remark

    Show marketing remark (137 chars)

    Property is occupied and occupants are not to be disturbed or contacted. Being sold as is. Contact listing agent for bidding instructions

24. 2014-12-15
    historical
25. 2014-07-20
    listed $37,200
26. 2005-05-31
    soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $849 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $849 · $71/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 21% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,956
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$849
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$876
• − Management: −$876
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $1,596
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$383
• After-tax cash flow: $2,329/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Watson Chapel School District
• NCES district ID: 0513930
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 12% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $40,521
• Composite: 9.55/100
• National rank: #9845
• State rank: #228 of 238 in AR

Livability — Pine Bluff

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #483
• US rank: #25645

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pine Bluff, AR
• County: Jefferson County · 29,578 people
• City population: 29,578
• Metro: Pine Bluff, AR
• Population (ZIP): 29,578
• Household income: $53,130
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 657.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,110 people
• By 2030: 58,519 · -7.3%
• By 2040: 49,740 · -21.2%
• By 2050: 42,331 · -32.9%
• By 2075: 29,591 · -53.1%
• By 2100: 21,047 · -66.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 62% White 33% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.1) · D 59.2% · R 39.2% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: 26.3pp · 2024: 20.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.1 2020: D+21.7 2016: D+25.3 2012: D+29.0 2008: D+26.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.43%
• Current HPI: 206.5994
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Pine Bluff, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+15.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-13 Listed $75,000 CARMLS
• 2023-07-02 Rental Removed $850 RENTLY
• 2022-03-07 Price Changed $850 RENT.
• 2015-01-29 Sold (Public Records) $16,500 Public Records
• 2015-01-26 Listed $16,500 CARMLS
• 2015-01-26 Sold (MLS) $16,500 CARMLS
• 2014-12-15 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2014-07-20 Listed $37,200 CARMLS
• 2005-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $849 · +8.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.