10019 Meadow Mill Forest Ln · Houston, TX 77044

$218,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,394 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 2015 4,739 sqft lot $156/sqft · 7% below area Est $234k · 7% under $39/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fantastic starter home, four bedrooms with two bathrooms. Large kitchen open to the family room. Master bathroom has separate shower and tub. Two car garage. Nice backyard with plenty of space for the family dog or a garden. Walk to parks and school. Home did not flood in Harvey. Refrigerator, washer and dryer included in the sale of the the home.

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Primary suite
• Separate shower

Tags

• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• PLENTY OF CABINET SPACE
• HIGH CEILINGS
• PRIMARY SUITE
• SEPARATE SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Radiant attic barrier and energy-efficient doors, HVAC, thermostat, and windows
• HOA & community: ACMI QUALITY ASSOCIATION; Annual association fee of $468 (covers common areas)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Full ownership; Slab foundation; Built in 2015; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction
• Exterior features: Fenced backyard; Subdivision lot; Concrete road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas range; Microwave; Oven
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (14 x 13); Bedroom on first floor (11 x 10); Bedroom on first floor (10 x 10); Bedroom on first floor (10 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air (electric); Heating and cooling included in energy-efficient features
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Granite counters; High ceilings; Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower; Vaulted ceilings; Window treatments; Ceiling fans; Kitchen/dining combo; Programmable thermostat; Insulated doors; Low emissivity windows; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $218k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-190 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $184k (15.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (8.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (15.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Sheldon ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #746 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Sheldon Early Childhood Academy (589 students, 87% FRL); C E King Middle (math 13% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,478 of 1,662 statewide, top 90%, 1,311 students, 90% FRL); C E King H S (math 19% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,473 students, 82% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 340 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($215k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $103k; list at $218k implies a 111% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,483 (15.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.73%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $234,198
• List price: $218,000
• Delta: -6.06%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10338 White Fir Villa Ave	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,376 (-1%)	2mo	$234,900	$171	77
12326 Garden Gale Ln	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,364 (-2%)	2mo	$169,900	$125	74
12426 Garden Gale Ln	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,364 (-2%)	5mo	$204,900	$150	71
12823 Northchase Ridge Ln	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,413 (+1%)	6mo	$110,000	$78	70
12415 Garden Gale Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,494 (+7%)	3mo	$220,000	$147	65
13170 Montane Manor Ln	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,410 (+1%)	10mo	$217,000	$154	59
13015 Italian Cypress Trl	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,545 (+11%)	7mo	$235,000	$152	55
10307 Leafy Autumn Path	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,595 (+14%)	10mo	$235,000	$147	50
12619 Fern Forest Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,313 (-6%)	1mo	$230,000	$175	50
12911 Italian Cypress Trl	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (+15%)	9mo	$238,000	$149	45
9926 Yanet Grove Ln	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,202 (-14%)	7mo	$222,900	$185	36
10022 Dawson Hill Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,226 (-12%)	8mo	$213,900	$174	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.59% appreciation · 0.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-38,110
• Equity at exit: $46,558

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-52,077
• Equity at exit: $43,891

Cash invested: $61,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77044

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 340
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,001 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,143
• Tax from tax record: −$498 /mo · $5,972/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$39
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-190

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,241

Max offer price $184,483

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-66	-5% $-128	+0% $-190	+5% $-251	+10% $-313
Rent	-10% $-348	-5% $-269	+0% $-190	+5% $-111	+10% $-32
Rate	-1.0pp $-80	-0.5pp $-134	base $-190	+0.5pp $-246	+1.0pp $-304

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,500
• Closing costs: $6,540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10007 Copper Hollow Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1773	$1,700	$0.96	46d	1	0.12mi
12319 Garden Gale Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1716	$1,766	$1.03	7d	1	0.30mi
10306 White Fir Villa Ave Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1560	$2,100	$1.35	45d	1	0.38mi
9418 Belleclaire Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,950	$1.37	26d	1	0.49mi
12315 Roy Mix Bohn Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,750	$1.22	45d	1	0.52mi
13206 Clifton Hill Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1632	$2,500	$1.53	19d	1	0.56mi
12227 Ghita Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,750	$1.22	45d	1	0.63mi
12610 Fern Forest Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1196	$1,736	$1.45	45d	1	0.77mi
12703 Enchanted Path Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,701	$1.19	14d	1	0.78mi
12539 Fern Forest Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1192	$1,750	$1.47	6d	1	0.78mi
15 Parkway Forest Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1116	$1,279	$1.15	26d	1	0.98mi
12324 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1170	$1,254	$1.07	26d	1	1.25mi
12212 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	949	$1,315	$1.39	7d	15	1.30mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $39 · $468/yr

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $218,000 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $218,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $218,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $218,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $218,000 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $218,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $218,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $218,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $218,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $218,000 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $218,000 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $218,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $218,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $218,000 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-04-29
    price $220,000 507-char remark
16. 2026-04-25
    status Active 507-char remark
17. 2026-04-17
    status Pending 507-char remark
18. 2026-04-09
    listed $225,000 Active 507-char remark
19. 2019-12-31
    soldstatus
20. 2019-12-26
    soldstatus Sold 349-char remark

    Show marketing remark (349 chars)

    Fantastic starter home, four bedrooms with two bathrooms. Large kitchen open to the family room. Master bathroom has separate shower and tub. Two car garage. Nice backyard with plenty of space for the family dog or a garden. Walk to parks and school. Home did not flood in Harvey. Refrigerator, washer and dryer included in the sale of the the home.

21. 2019-12-05
    status Active 349-char remark

    Show marketing remark (349 chars)

    Fantastic starter home, four bedrooms with two bathrooms. Large kitchen open to the family room. Master bathroom has separate shower and tub. Two car garage. Nice backyard with plenty of space for the family dog or a garden. Walk to parks and school. Home did not flood in Harvey. Refrigerator, washer and dryer included in the sale of the the home.

22. 2019-10-18
    status Pending 349-char remark

    Show marketing remark (349 chars)

    Fantastic starter home, four bedrooms with two bathrooms. Large kitchen open to the family room. Master bathroom has separate shower and tub. Two car garage. Nice backyard with plenty of space for the family dog or a garden. Walk to parks and school. Home did not flood in Harvey. Refrigerator, washer and dryer included in the sale of the the home.

23. 2019-10-09
    status Active 349-char remark

    Show marketing remark (349 chars)

    Fantastic starter home, four bedrooms with two bathrooms. Large kitchen open to the family room. Master bathroom has separate shower and tub. Two car garage. Nice backyard with plenty of space for the family dog or a garden. Walk to parks and school. Home did not flood in Harvey. Refrigerator, washer and dryer included in the sale of the the home.

24. 2019-10-03
    historical 349-char remark

    Show marketing remark (349 chars)

    Fantastic starter home, four bedrooms with two bathrooms. Large kitchen open to the family room. Master bathroom has separate shower and tub. Two car garage. Nice backyard with plenty of space for the family dog or a garden. Walk to parks and school. Home did not flood in Harvey. Refrigerator, washer and dryer included in the sale of the the home.

25. 2019-09-23
    listed $177,500 Active 349-char remark

    Show marketing remark (349 chars)

    Fantastic starter home, four bedrooms with two bathrooms. Large kitchen open to the family room. Master bathroom has separate shower and tub. Two car garage. Nice backyard with plenty of space for the family dog or a garden. Walk to parks and school. Home did not flood in Harvey. Refrigerator, washer and dryer included in the sale of the the home.

26. 2015-10-21
    soldstatus Sold
27. 2015-08-15
    historical
28. 2015-08-06
    listed $25,000 Active
29. 2009-04-13
    soldstatus $103,320

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,972 · $498/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,972 · $498/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,015
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,211
• − Property taxes: −$5,972
• − Insurance: −$1,090
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,921
• − Management: −$1,921
• − HOA: −$468
• − Depreciation: −$6,342
• Taxable loss: −$5,911
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,419
• After-tax cash flow: $-858/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sheldon ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $49,443
• Composite: 19.5/100
• National rank: #8772
• State rank: #746 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 58,347
• Household income: $95,000
• Rent vs Own: 24.1% rent · 75.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1332.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% Black 32% White 19% Two or more races 18% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 35% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.59%
• Current HPI: 215.5736
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.92%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+111.0% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $218,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $220,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-25 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2019-12-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-12-26 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2019-12-05 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2019-10-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-10-09 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2019-10-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-09-23 Listed $177,500 HARMLS
• 2015-10-21 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2015-08-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2015-08-06 Listed $25,000 HARMLS
• 2009-04-13 Sold (Public Records) $103,320 Public Records

Property tax history

+16.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,972 · -3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.