1294 W Moss St · Paint Rock, TX 76866

$128,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1980 0.32 ac lot ↓ 26% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This manufactured home is back on the market at a new price. It has been a rental for the past year but owner is ready to sell at a price that will certainly make you stop and take a look. With 3bedrooms and 2 baths you will have plenty of room and lots of storage. You will love the stone fireplace on those cold winter nights and the huge outdoor patio for entertaining on these summer evenings. The lot is perfect for gardening and the two carports can house at least 8 vehicles , boats, RVs and all farm implements. Come take a look. This house will "PUT A SONG IN YOUR HEART.

Key facts

• Two carports
• Stone fireplace
• Huge outdoor patio

Tags

• STONE FIREPLACE
• HUGE OUTDOOR PATIO
• TWO CARPORTS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Has carport; 8 carport spaces; Additional parking with attached carport and covered/RV/boat options; Circular driveway with drive-through access and oversized/RV garage capabilities; Storage available
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Water and sewer available
• Home design: Manufactured home (residential); One level; Property listed as fixer
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Outdoor grill; Storage; Deck; Workshop; RV/boat storage; Interior lot; Paved road frontage on a highway, public maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Gas cooktop
• Bedrooms: Total of 7 rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Simulated wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central electric cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Laminate counters; Ceiling fans; Window coverings; Wood-burning fireplace in the living room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside with a laundry closet on the main level; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7 ($84/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $108k (15.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $108k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,245 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Paint Rock ISD (rural): math 35% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #1,008 of 1,141 in TX (top 88%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Concho County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($891 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.1% local appreciation)).
• Concho County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,416 (15.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.23%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.14% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $3,760
• Equity at exit: $44,974

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $29,148
• Equity at exit: $60,524

Cash invested: $36,092 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76866

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,084 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$120 /mo · $1,438/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,075

Max offer price $128,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $80	-5% $43	+0% $7	+5% $-29	+10% $-66
Rent	-10% $-79	-5% $-36	+0% $7	+5% $50	+10% $93
Rate	-1.0pp $72	-0.5pp $40	base $7	+0.5pp $-26	+1.0pp $-60

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,225
• Closing costs: $3,867
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $128,900 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   remarks 580-char remark
3. 2026-06-21
   listed $128,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,438 · $120/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,359 · $197/mo
• Expected delta: +$921/yr (+$77/mo · 64.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,010
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,220
• − Property taxes: −$1,438
• − Insurance: −$644
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,041
• − Management: −$1,041
• − Depreciation: −$3,750
• Taxable loss: −$2,124
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$510
• After-tax cash flow: $594/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paint Rock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4833980
• Math proficiency: 35% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $44,480
• Composite: 28.53/100
• National rank: #12081
• State rank: #1008 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Paint Rock

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1245
• US rank: #21750

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paint Rock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 918

Population outlook (Concho County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,538 people
• By 2030: 4,681 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 4,975 · +9.6%
• By 2050: 5,329 · +17.4%
• By 2075: 5,760 · +26.9%
• By 2100: 4,903 · +8.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 21% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Italian 26% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 23%

Political lean MEDSL · Concho

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+73.9) · D 12.8% · R 86.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.8pp toward R · 2008: -51.1pp · 2024: -73.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+73.9 2020: R+67.9 2016: R+69.1 2012: R+59.8 2008: R+51.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.14%
• Current HPI: 104.2078
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-26.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-20 Listed $128,900 SAAR TX
• 2025-12-03 Rental Removed $3,000 SAARTX
• 2025-09-01 Listed for Rent $3,000 SAARTX
• 2025-09-01 Relisted — SAAR TX
• 2025-07-09 Price Changed $137,500 SAAR TX
• 2025-04-11 Price Changed $147,500 SAAR TX
• 2025-04-10 Price Changed $150,000 SAAR TX
• 2024-11-18 Relisted — SAAR TX
• 2024-08-23 Listed $175,000 SAAR TX

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,438 · -14.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.