1500 Held Dr #136 · Modesto, CA 95355

$99,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 47 Days on market

Built 1989 4,566 sqft lot Est $108k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Priced to Sell! Enjoy relaxed and convenient living in The Grove Senior 55 gated community. This delightful 3 bed/2 bath Manufactured home has 1344 square feet that blends comfort with style. Tucked away in a private cul-de-sac. Bright Sunny Kitchen with breakfast nook and garden window. Separate Dining Area with French Doors to the Screened Front Porch. Coffee, Conversation and Peaceful Mornings await you. Large Primary Bedroom on opposite side of living room provides privacy. The cathedral-vaulted Livingroom creates an open airy feeling. 3 inch slat Vinyl Blinds. Hall Bath has a double walk in shower with seating. Laundry Room has ample shelving and cabinets for storage. All Bedroom Close

Key facts

• Gated community
• Bright sunny kitchen
• Screened front porch

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• PRIVATE CUL-DE-SAC
• BRIGHT SUNNY KITCHEN
• SCREENED FRONT PORCH
• DOUBLE WALK IN SHOWER
• AMPLE SHELVING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease: No (listed land lease amount present but residence is not leased)
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached parking; Guest parking available
• Utilities: Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter; 220V in laundry; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in park (double wide); Built in 1989
• Construction: Shingle/composition roof; Wood skirting; Manufactured home by Roberts HM
• Exterior features: Carport awning; Located on a cul-de-sac

Interior

• Kitchen: Free standing gas range; Free standing gas oven; Free standing refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Hood over range; Ice maker / plumbed for ice maker
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Sunken tub and shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Ceiling fans; Central cooling
• Interior features: Cathedral/vaulted living room; Covered deck, screened-in patio and porch; Dual-pane full windows; Pantry cabinet and ceramic counters in kitchen; Formal dining area; Pets allowed (cats and dogs; number limit)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Washer/dryer hookups; Laundry located inside (in kitchen / inside room); Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $96k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.9% vs local median 3.2% in Modesto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#451 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D+, health & safety D+.
• Empire Union Elementary (suburban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #398 of 517 in CA (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 222 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.3% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,030 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 52.22%
• DSCR: 3.32
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $107,520
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1500 Held Dr #7	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	11mo	$80,000	$60	91
1500 Held Dr #81	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,323 (-2%)	8mo	$50,000	$38	91
1428 Playground Way	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	3mo	$160,000	$119	90
1544 Playground Way	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	9mo	$140,000	$104	88
1500 Held Dr #119	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	1mo	$87,000	$60	87
1500 Held #99	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (0%)	6mo	$107,000	$80	86
1500 Held Dr #135	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-7%)	8mo	$100,000	$80	73
1517 Panthers Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-7%)	11mo	$111,000	$89	71
1500 Held	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,529 (+14%)	3mo	$95,000	$62	70
1500 Held Dr #124	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-14%)	11mo	$84,900	$74	67
1500 Held Dr #84	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,529 (+14%)	3mo	$95,000	$62	65
4400 Spartans Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-14%)	6mo	$111,800	$97	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 48.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.05×
• Total profit: $56,744
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 53.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.77×
• Total profit: $132,339
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95355

• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 222
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,393 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$124 /mo · $1,485/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$502
• Net cashflow: $1,206

Break-even live

Break-even rent $866

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 45%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1108 Cedar Creek Dr #1 Modesto, CA	2.0	2.0	1064	$1,999	$1.88	13d	1	0.91mi
757 Waddell Way Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1755	$2,700	$1.54	13d	1	1.31mi
1217 Kara Ln Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1559	$2,395	$1.54	23d	1	1.35mi
1500 Lakewood Ave Modesto, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	820	$1,900	$2.32	13d	7	1.43mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,000 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,000 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,000 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 29 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,000 Active 28 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 36 unhealthy d/yr today · 39 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,714
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,485
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,297
• − Management: −$2,297
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $13,714
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,291
• After-tax cash flow: $11,183/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Empire Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0612690
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $49,808
• Composite: 22.05/100
• National rank: #8193
• State rank: #398 of 517 in CA

Livability — Modesto

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #451
• US rank: #15229

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute D Cost of living F Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Modesto, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 445,786 people
• City population: 225,261
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 60,710
• Household income: $86,849
• Rent vs Own: 37.7% rent · 62.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2521.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 18% Asian 8% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -458.02%
• Current HPI: 277.8565
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.28%
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B