209 Old Farm Rd · Raeford, NC 28376

$230,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,538 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1974 Est $257k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wonderfully maintained three-bedroom, two-bathroom home in the City of Raeford. The interior features an inviting foyer, a great room with a beautiful fireplace, a formal dining room, a charming kitchen with granite countertops, spacious bedrooms, a hall bathroom with a jetted tub, and a master bedroom with bathroom. The exterior features beautiful landscaping, a covered front porch, a large wired storage shed, and a large back deck with an awning great for entertaining family & friends. Close to parks, schools, shopping, and dining. Don't miss out on this wonderful home and schedule a viewing today!

Key facts

• Inviting foyer
• Beautiful fireplace
• Formal dining room

Tags

• INVITING FOYER
• GREAT ROOM
• BEAUTIFUL FIREPLACE
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• CHARMING KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 covered space (1-car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Subdivision: RAEFORD; Paved road access
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Awning(s); Storage; Partial fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 6
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Has heating; Has cooling
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Granite counters; Vaulted ceilings; Gas log stone fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup in unit; Crawl space

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $97 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (18.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (18.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 5.1% in Raeford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#39 in NC, #3,562 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, commute F, employment F.
• Hoke County Schools (suburban): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #123 of 178 in NC (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: West Hoke Elementary (math 30% / reading 35%, grade F, #897 of 1,410 statewide, top 64%, 490 students, 98% FRL); West Hoke Middle (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #368 of 475 statewide, top 78%, 576 students, 100% FRL); Hoke County High (math 42% / reading 44%, grade F, #372 of 535 statewide, top 69%, 2,060 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 57% district-wide (42 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 575 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 685 units permitted in Hoke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hoke County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,565 (18.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.82%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $256,846
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
245 Apple Tree Cir	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,554 (+1%)	6mo	$255,000	$164	90
281 Apple Tree Cir	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,524 (-1%)	6mo	$260,000	$171	89
104 Will Johnson Rd	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,614 (+5%)	5mo	$270,000	$167	84
261 W Palmer St	0.33mi	3/2.5	1,533 (-0%)	2mo	$270,000	$176	80
129 Traveller Way	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,629 (+6%)	1mo	$294,900	$181	75
393 Gable Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,468 (-5%)	4mo	$259,900	$177	69
833 W Prospect Ave	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,377 (-10%)	6mo	$65,000	$47	64
555 Lemont Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,484 (-4%)	2mo	$208,800	$141	60
109 N Dickson St	0.61mi	3/1.5	1,483 (-4%)	7mo	$203,000	$137	58
125 W Palmer St	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-12%)	2mo	$175,000	$129	53
303 N Dickson St	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,721 (+12%)	2mo	$285,000	$166	52
242 Westminster Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,421 (-8%)	8mo	$255,000	$179	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-33,181
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-29,415
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28376

• Home prices YoY: -24.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 575
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,886 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,082/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $97

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,762

Max offer price $230,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $228	-5% $163	+0% $97	+5% $32	+10% $-33
Rent	-10% $-51	-5% $23	+0% $97	+5% $172	+10% $246
Rate	-1.0pp $213	-0.5pp $156	base $97	+0.5pp $38	+1.0pp $-23

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
113 N Wright St Raeford, NC	3.0	2.0	1585	$1,550	$0.98	15d	1	0.57mi
203 Williford Dr Raeford, NC	4.0	2.5	2128	$2,200	$1.03	25d	1	1.07mi
198 Peeler Raeford, NC	4.0	2.5	1886	$2,150	$1.14	25d	1	1.13mi
123 Main St Raeford, NC	4.0	2.5	1913	$2,200	$1.15	25d	1	1.13mi
110 E 7th Ave Raeford, NC	2.0	2.0	1064	$1,200	$1.13	15d	1	1.22mi
125 Burgess Ln Raeford, NC	3.0	2.5	1460	$1,600	$1.10	25d	1	1.37mi
122 Sherman Ct Unit 122 Raeford, NC	3.0	2.5	1400	$1,600	$1.14	25d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $230,000 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $230,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $230,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $230,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $230,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-05-19
   price $230,000
7. 2026-05-05
   price $232,500
8. 2026-04-21
   price $235,000
9. 2026-04-14
   listed $237,500 Active
10. 2025-12-04
    historical $1,675
11. 2025-10-09
    price $1,675
12. 2025-09-30
    historical $1,750
13. 2025-09-29
    listed $1,750
14. 2025-08-29
    listed $1,750
15. 2024-07-16
    historical $1,675
16. 2024-06-14
    listed $1,675
17. 2024-06-14
    historical $1,675
18. 2024-06-13
    listed $1,675
19. 2024-05-15
    soldstatus $211,000 Closed 613-char remark

    Show marketing remark (613 chars)

    Wonderfully maintained three-bedroom, two-bathroom home in the City of Raeford. The interior features an inviting foyer, a great room with a beautiful fireplace, a formal dining room, a charming kitchen with granite countertops, spacious bedrooms, a hall bathroom with a jetted tub, and a master bedroom with bathroom. The exterior features beautiful landscaping, a covered front porch, a large wired storage shed, and a large back deck with an awning great for entertaining family & friends. Close to parks, schools, shopping, and dining. Don't miss out on this wonderful home and schedule a viewing today!

20. 2024-05-15
    soldstatus $211,000

    Show marketing remark (613 chars)

    Wonderfully maintained three-bedroom, two-bathroom home in the City of Raeford. The interior features an inviting foyer, a great room with a beautiful fireplace, a formal dining room, a charming kitchen with granite countertops, spacious bedrooms, a hall bathroom with a jetted tub, and a master bedroom with bathroom. The exterior features beautiful landscaping, a covered front porch, a large wired storage shed, and a large back deck with an awning great for entertaining family & friends. Close to parks, schools, shopping, and dining. Don't miss out on this wonderful home and schedule a viewing today!

21. 2024-04-27
    status Pending 613-char remark

    Show marketing remark (613 chars)

    Wonderfully maintained three-bedroom, two-bathroom home in the City of Raeford. The interior features an inviting foyer, a great room with a beautiful fireplace, a formal dining room, a charming kitchen with granite countertops, spacious bedrooms, a hall bathroom with a jetted tub, and a master bedroom with bathroom. The exterior features beautiful landscaping, a covered front porch, a large wired storage shed, and a large back deck with an awning great for entertaining family & friends. Close to parks, schools, shopping, and dining. Don't miss out on this wonderful home and schedule a viewing today!

22. 2024-04-23
    listed $225,000 Active 613-char remark

    Show marketing remark (613 chars)

    Wonderfully maintained three-bedroom, two-bathroom home in the City of Raeford. The interior features an inviting foyer, a great room with a beautiful fireplace, a formal dining room, a charming kitchen with granite countertops, spacious bedrooms, a hall bathroom with a jetted tub, and a master bedroom with bathroom. The exterior features beautiful landscaping, a covered front porch, a large wired storage shed, and a large back deck with an awning great for entertaining family & friends. Close to parks, schools, shopping, and dining. Don't miss out on this wonderful home and schedule a viewing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,082 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,886 · $157/mo
• Expected delta: +$804/yr (+$67/mo · 74.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 72% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,628
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$1,082
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,810
• − Management: −$1,810
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$2,800
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$672
• After-tax cash flow: $1,842/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hoke County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702250
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,896
• Composite: 31.82/100
• National rank: #5880
• State rank: #123 of 178 in NC

Livability — Raeford

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #39
• US rank: #3562

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Raeford, NC
• County: Hoke County · 44,880 people
• City population: 44,880
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 44,880
• Household income: $66,471
• Rent vs Own: 27.7% rent · 72.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 897.0

Population outlook (Hoke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,354 people
• By 2030: 68,361 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 78,074 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 86,384 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 99,517 · +57.1%
• By 2100: 98,939 · +56.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Black 35% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hoke

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.9) · D 52.4% · R 46.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.8pp toward R · 2008: 18.8pp · 2024: 5.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.9 2020: D+10.9 2016: D+10.8 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+18.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.30%
• Current HPI: 169.1801
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.92%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+2.2% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $230,000 LPRMLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $232,500 LPRMLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $235,000 LPRMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $237,500 LPRMLS
• 2025-12-04 Rental Removed $1,675 TMLS
• 2025-10-09 Price Changed $1,675 TMLS
• 2025-09-30 Rental Removed $1,750 LPRMLS
• 2025-09-29 Listed for Rent $1,750 LPRMLS
• 2025-08-29 Listed for Rent $1,750 TMLS
• 2024-07-16 Rental Removed $1,675 TMLS
• 2024-06-14 Listed for Rent $1,675 TMLS
• 2024-06-14 Rental Removed $1,675 LPRMLS
• 2024-06-13 Listed for Rent $1,675 LPRMLS
• 2024-05-15 Sold (Public Records) $211,000 Public Records
• 2024-05-15 Sold (MLS) $211,000 LPRMLS
• 2024-04-27 Pending — LPRMLS
• 2024-04-23 Listed $225,000 LPRMLS

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,082 · +139.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.