708 Grayson St · Nocona, TX 76255

$89,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 808 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1935 0.63 ac lot $111/sqft · 24% below area Est $118k · 24% under ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Freshly remodeled and move-in ready, this 2-bedroom, 1-bath home features modern updates throughout. Recent improvements include a 1-year-old HVAC system, upgraded electrical, and completed foundation work. The spacious backyard offers a shed on a concrete slab—perfect for storage or a workshop.

Key facts

• Move-in ready
• Remodeled
• Spacious backyard

Tags

• REMODELED
• MOVE-IN READY
• HVAC SYSTEM
• UPGRADED ELECTRICAL
• COMPLETED FOUNDATION WORK
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $327 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 3.9% in Nocona — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#555 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Nocona ISD (town): math 44% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #427 of 826 in TX (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 189 active listings in the ZIP; 23 units permitted in Montague County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $619 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montague County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 8895% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $86,815 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.67%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $118,180
• List price: $89,500
• Delta: -24.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
207 W Walnut St	0.39mi	1/1.0 (-1)	800 (-1%)	2mo	$154,999	$194	73
915 Young St	0.36mi	2/1.0	838 (+4%)	9mo	$65,000	$78	70
810 Clay St	0.17mi	2/1.0	780 (-4%)	24mo	$119,900	$154	67
609 Baylor St	0.33mi	2/1.0	870 (+8%)	12mo	$35,000	$40	62
306 Henrietta St	0.73mi	2/1.0	840 (+4%)	24mo	$140,000	$167	39
96 9th St	0.67mi	3/1.5 (+1)	862 (+7%)	23mo	$159,900	$185	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $6,364
• Equity at exit: $13,345

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.30×
• Total profit: $32,466
• Equity at exit: $7,738

Cash invested: $25,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76255

• Home prices YoY: -12.5%
• Active inventory: 189
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,201 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$469
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,380/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $327

Break-even live

Break-even rent $787

Max offer price $89,500

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,375
• Closing costs: $2,685
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-05-10
   listed $995
2. 2026-05-04
   price $89,500 302-char remark

   Show marketing remark (302 chars)

   Freshly remodeled and move-in ready, this 2-bedroom, 1-bath home features modern updates throughout. Recent improvements include a 1-year-old HVAC system, upgraded electrical, and completed foundation work. The spacious backyard offers a shed on a concrete slab—perfect for storage or a workshop.

3. 2026-04-13
   listed $99,500 Active 302-char remark

   Show marketing remark (302 chars)

   Freshly remodeled and move-in ready, this 2-bedroom, 1-bath home features modern updates throughout. Recent improvements include a 1-year-old HVAC system, upgraded electrical, and completed foundation work. The spacious backyard offers a shed on a concrete slab—perfect for storage or a workshop.

4. 2025-12-20
   historical $995
5. 2025-11-20
   listed $995
6. 2024-08-14
   historical $995
7. 2024-08-07
   listed $995
8. 2024-08-05
   price $99,500
9. 2024-07-09
   status Active
10. 2024-07-06
    historical Active Option Contract
11. 2024-06-25
    listed $109,000 Active
12. 2024-03-18
    soldstatus
13. 2012-06-11
    soldstatus
14. 2007-05-29
    soldstatus
15. 2006-06-07
    soldstatus
16. 2002-04-23
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,380 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,638 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: +$258/yr (+$21/mo · 18.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,414
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,013
• − Property taxes: −$1,380
• − Insurance: −$448
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,153
• − Management: −$1,153
• − Depreciation: −$2,604
• Taxable income: $2,664
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$639
• After-tax cash flow: $3,288/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nocona ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832790
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $37,890
• Composite: 33.79/100
• National rank: #5364
• State rank: #427 of 826 in TX

Livability — Nocona

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #555
• US rank: #10720

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nocona, TX
• Population (ZIP): 5,725

Population outlook (Montague County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,216 people
• By 2030: 17,603 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 16,451 · -9.7%
• By 2050: 15,424 · -15.3%
• By 2075: 13,365 · -26.6%
• By 2100: 10,998 · -39.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montague

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+77.7) · D 10.9% · R 88.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.2pp toward R · 2008: -58.5pp · 2024: -77.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+77.7 2020: R+76.6 2016: R+77.2 2012: R+70.1 2008: R+58.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.13%
• Current HPI: 183.6308
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-17.9% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Listed for Rent $995 BUILDIUM
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $89,500 NTREIS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $99,500 NTREIS
• 2025-12-20 Rental Removed $995 BUILDIUM
• 2025-11-20 Listed for Rent $995 BUILDIUM
• 2024-08-14 Rental Removed $995 BUILDIUM
• 2024-08-07 Listed for Rent $995 BUILDIUM
• 2024-08-05 Price Changed $99,500 NTREIS
• 2024-07-09 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2024-07-06 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2024-06-25 Listed $109,000 NTREIS
• 2024-03-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-06-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-05-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-06-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-04-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+13.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,380 · +143.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.