264 Dobbs Ave · Odessa, TX 79761

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,632 sqft · Manufactured public records · 321 Days on market

Built 1980 5,998 sqft lot $77/sqft · 43% above area Est $87k · 43% over ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great value on this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath starter home with additional flex rooms created from subdivided bedrooms. Enjoy a paved driveway, 1-car garage, and a spacious 600 sq ft workshop ideal for storage or projects. Call your realtor today to schedule a showing!

Key facts

• Paved driveway
• 600 sq ft workshop
• 5,998 sq ft lot

Tags

• PAVED DRIVEWAY
• 600 SQ FT WORKSHOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $821 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#132 in TX, #3,928 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities D.
• Ector County ISD (urban): math 22% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #707 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: El Magnet At Blackshear (math 21% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,515 of 4,322 statewide, top 82%, 672 students, 80% FRL); Bonham Middle (math 9% / reading 16%, grade F, #1,616 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 867 students, 65% FRL); Permian H S (math 19% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,333 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,978 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 96 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,004 units permitted in Ector County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ector County population projected at +78% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 321 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 321 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.15%
• DSCR: 2.25
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $87,401
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: 43.02%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $26,142
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $67,296
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79761

• Home prices YoY: -31.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,002 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $634/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $821

Break-even live

Break-even rent $963

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $892	-5% $857	+0% $821	+5% $786	+10% $750
Rent	-10% $663	-5% $742	+0% $821	+5% $900	+10% $979
Rate	-1.0pp $884	-0.5pp $853	base $821	+0.5pp $789	+1.0pp $756

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
701 Hillcrest Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,400	$1.04	45d	1	0.65mi
1117 Avenida de Mexico Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,900	$1.42	45d	1	0.86mi
2511 Beechwood St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	2200	$2,595	$1.18	14d	1	0.98mi
1513 E 11th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1728	$3,300	$1.91	45d	1	1.02mi
2620 Cambridge St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1595	$1,950	$1.22	22d	1	1.14mi
2705 Cambridge St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1456	$2,400	$1.65	22d	1	1.21mi
1706 Emerald Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1992	$2,500	$1.26	45d	1	1.26mi
1709 Byron Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1981	$1,975	$1.00	45d	1	1.27mi
1012 Adams Ave Unit C2BBUILDING C Odessa, TX	4.0	1.0	1066	$1,750	$1.64	45d	1	1.31mi
1012 Adams Ave Unit C1BBUILDING C Odessa, TX	4.0	1.0	1066	$1,800	$1.69	45d	1	1.31mi
2735 E 8th St Odessa, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	842	$1,844	$2.19	14d	8	1.38mi
410 Snyder St Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	1320	$1,600	$1.21	14d	1	1.40mi
1220 Adams Ave Unit 4 Odessa, TX	4.0	1.0	1063	$1,750	$1.65	45d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 321 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $125,000 Active 319 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 318 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 317 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 316 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 315 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 313 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 312 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 310 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $125,000 Active 309 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 308 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 307 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 302 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 301 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 300 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $125,000 Active 299 DOM
17. 2025-11-19
    status Active 278-char remark

    Show marketing remark (278 chars)

    Great value on this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath starter home with additional flex rooms created from subdivided bedrooms. Enjoy a paved driveway, 1-car garage, and a spacious 600 sq ft workshop ideal for storage or projects. Call your realtor today to schedule a showing!

18. 2025-11-13
    historical 278-char remark

    Show marketing remark (278 chars)

    Great value on this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath starter home with additional flex rooms created from subdivided bedrooms. Enjoy a paved driveway, 1-car garage, and a spacious 600 sq ft workshop ideal for storage or projects. Call your realtor today to schedule a showing!

19. 2025-10-08
    status Active 278-char remark

    Show marketing remark (278 chars)

    Great value on this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath starter home with additional flex rooms created from subdivided bedrooms. Enjoy a paved driveway, 1-car garage, and a spacious 600 sq ft workshop ideal for storage or projects. Call your realtor today to schedule a showing!

20. 2025-09-05
    historical 278-char remark

    Show marketing remark (278 chars)

    Great value on this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath starter home with additional flex rooms created from subdivided bedrooms. Enjoy a paved driveway, 1-car garage, and a spacious 600 sq ft workshop ideal for storage or projects. Call your realtor today to schedule a showing!

21. 2025-08-28
    price $125,000 278-char remark

    Show marketing remark (278 chars)

    Great value on this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath starter home with additional flex rooms created from subdivided bedrooms. Enjoy a paved driveway, 1-car garage, and a spacious 600 sq ft workshop ideal for storage or projects. Call your realtor today to schedule a showing!

22. 2025-06-27
    listed $130,000 Active 278-char remark

    Show marketing remark (278 chars)

    Great value on this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath starter home with additional flex rooms created from subdivided bedrooms. Enjoy a paved driveway, 1-car garage, and a spacious 600 sq ft workshop ideal for storage or projects. Call your realtor today to schedule a showing!

23. 2024-06-12
    price $120,000
24. 2024-05-22
    soldstatus
25. 2023-08-21
    price $120,000
26. 2023-07-07
    price $124,000
27. 2023-06-20
    price $129,000
28. 2023-05-09
    price $139,000
29. 2023-03-17
    soldstatus
30. 2018-12-06
    soldstatus
31. 2018-12-06
    soldstatus
32. 2017-11-08
    soldstatus
33. 2012-10-10
    soldstatus
34. 1987-10-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $634 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,288 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,653/yr (+$138/mo · 260.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,024
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$634
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,922
• − Management: −$1,922
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $8,283
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,988
• After-tax cash flow: $7,866/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ector County ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818000
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,740
• Composite: 21.89/100
• National rank: #8233
• State rank: #707 of 826 in TX

Livability — Odessa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #3928

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Odessa, TX
• County: Ector County · 131,169 people
• City population: 131,169
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,164
• Household income: $68,228
• Rent vs Own: 41.7% rent · 58.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1352.0

Population outlook (Ector County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 212,765 people
• By 2030: 241,962 · +13.7%
• By 2040: 306,582 · +44.1%
• By 2050: 379,755 · +78.5%
• By 2075: 568,991 · +167.4%
• By 2100: 709,829 · +233.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% White 23% Two or more races 20% Black 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 61%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 50% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Ector

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.9) · D 23.2% · R 76.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: -48.0pp · 2024: -52.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.9 2020: R+47.8 2016: R+40.6 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+48.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.66%
• Current HPI: 254.9159
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.66%
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.1% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-19 Relisted — ODMLS
• 2025-11-13 Delisted — ODMLS
• 2025-10-08 Relisted — ODMLS
• 2025-09-05 Delisted — ODMLS
• 2025-08-28 Price Changed $125,000 ODMLS
• 2025-06-27 Listed $130,000 ODMLS
• 2024-06-12 Price Changed $120,000 ODMLS
• 2024-05-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-08-21 Price Changed $120,000 ODMLS
• 2023-07-07 Price Changed $124,000 ODMLS
• 2023-06-20 Price Changed $129,000 ODMLS
• 2023-05-09 Price Changed $139,000 ODMLS
• 2023-03-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-12-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-12-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-11-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-10-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1987-10-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $634 · +5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.