3094 Harpoon Ln · St. James City, FL 33956

$389,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,357 sqft · Manufactured public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1987 3,920 sqft lot Est $444k · 12% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful Island home overlooking a wide canal. A boaters dream-gulf access with new boat lift and dock. Home offers 1 screened and glassed enclosed patio, walk in showers, dual sinks, vaulted ceilings, fenced side yard w/ landscaping, utility room with new dryer, open floor plan, completely furnished, home has a great vacation rental history at $2400.pr month! make offer today!

Key facts

• Updated bathrooms
• Granite countertops
• New windows

Tags

• REAL WOOD SOFT TOUCH CABINETRY
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LUXURY VINYL FLOORING
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• ENSUITE PRIMARY BEDROOM
• NEW WINDOWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: No association fee; Association includes street lights; Boat facilities in the community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Covered parking (1 space); Driveway, paved
• Security: High-impact doors; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public and private sewer available; Cable available; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Manufactured home with vinyl siding; One-story; Entry at level 1; West-facing; Has a view; Resale property
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Porch; Screened lanai/porch; Courtyard; Storage; Seawall; Canal access (navigable water); Security/high-impact doors; Smoke detector(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Self-cleaning oven; Refrigerator with ice maker; Freezer; Icemaker
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on main level
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric); Ceiling fans
• Interior features: High ceilings; Breakfast bar; Kitchen island; Pantry; Living/dining room; Window treatments; Shower only (separate shower); Workshop; Furnished
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry with laundry tub; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $390k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $68 ($812/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $390k).
• Recommended offer: $378k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.9% in St. James City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pine Island Elementary School (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #781 of 2,144 statewide, top 38%, 236 students, 45% FRL); Challenger Middle School (math 59% / reading 56%, grade B, #157 of 571 statewide, top 28%, 1,124 students, 50% FRL); Ida S. Baker High School (math 44% / reading 47%, grade D-, #223 of 667 statewide, top 34%, 1,933 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: 289 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($378k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $130k; list at $390k implies a 200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $378,203 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.43%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $443,739
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2970 Sloop Ln	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,374 (+1%)	22mo	$449,900	$327	72
3122 Binnacle Ln	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,512 (+11%)	11mo	$305,000	$202	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-58,594
• Equity at exit: $58,135

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-44,350
• Equity at exit: $33,711

Cash invested: $109,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33956

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Active inventory: 289
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,943 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax from tax record: −$414 /mo · $4,966/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$828
• Net cashflow: $68

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,858

Max offer price $389,900

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $288	-5% $178	+0% $68	+5% $-43	+10% $-153
Rent	-10% $-244	-5% $-88	+0% $68	+5% $223	+10% $379
Rate	-1.0pp $264	-0.5pp $167	base $68	+0.5pp $-33	+1.0pp $-136

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,475
• Closing costs: $11,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3103 Harpoon Ln Saint James City, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$3,000	$2.74	25d	1	0.05mi
2951 York Rd Saint James City, FL	2.0	2.0	1444	$5,500	$3.81	25d	1	0.21mi
4011 Galt Island Ave Saint James City, FL	3.0	2.0	1836	$5,000	$2.72	25d	1	0.26mi
3864 Royal Palm Dr Saint James City, FL	2.0	1.0	960	$1,650	$1.72	25d	1	0.39mi
3811 Emerald Ave Saint James City, FL	3.0	2.5	1500	$5,500	$3.67	25d	1	0.80mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-28
   listed $389,900 Active
3. 2013-08-15
   soldstatus $130,000 383-char remark

   Show marketing remark (383 chars)

   Beautiful Island home overlooking a wide canal. A boaters dream-gulf access with new boat lift and dock. Home offers 1 screened and glassed enclosed patio, walk in showers, dual sinks, vaulted ceilings, fenced side yard w/ landscaping, utility room with new dryer, open floor plan, completely furnished, home has a great vacation rental history at $2400.pr month! make offer today!

4. 2003-02-03
   soldstatus $170,000
5. 2003-01-24
   soldstatus $170,000
6. 2002-12-17
   price $179,900
7. 2002-03-27
   soldstatus $125,000
8. 1987-07-29
   soldstatus $23,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,966 · $414/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,966 · $414/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,319
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,840
• − Property taxes: −$4,966
• − Insurance: −$7,068
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,786
• − Management: −$3,786
• − Depreciation: −$11,343
• Taxable loss: −$5,469
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,313
• After-tax cash flow: $2,125/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — St. James City

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. James City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 3,846

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Pacific Islander 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% German/W. Germanic 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.47%
• Current HPI: 300.1416
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1595.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2026-02-28 Listed $389,900 FORTMLS
• 2013-08-15 Sold (MLS) $130,000 FORTMLS
• 2003-02-03 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 2003-01-24 Sold (MLS) $170,000 FORTMLS
• 2002-12-17 Price Changed $179,900 FORTMLS
• 2002-03-27 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 1987-07-29 Sold (Public Records) $23,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,966 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.