1251 Lugonia #24 · Redlands, CA 92374

$160,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,464 sqft · Manufactured · 111 Days on market

Built 1972 Good condition $109/sqft · 26% below area Est $216k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move-in ready and full of charm! This beautifully maintained 1,464 sq ft double wide manufactured home is located in the highly desirable Lugonia Fountains 55+ community. Offering a spacious and bright open layout, the home features abundant natural light throughout. The kitchen is generously sized with ample cabinetry and counter space - perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Enjoy drought tolerant landscape for easy low-maintenance living. Residents of the community have access to wonderful amenities including a clubhouse with kitchen, pool tables, spa and swimming pool, with the option to reserve for special occasions. Conveniently located near the University of Redlands, shopping, restaurants and has easy freeway access.

Key facts

• Bright kitchen
• Laminate flooring
• Easy freeway access

Tags

• DOUBLE WIDE MANUFACTURED HOME
• LAMINATE FLOORING
• BRIGHT KITCHEN
• LIGHT FILLED FAMILY ROOM
• LOW TO NO MAINTENANCE LOT
• EASY FREEWAY ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $878 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.9% vs local median 2.8% in Redlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#118 in CA, #4,193 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime C-, health & safety D, cost of living F.
• Redlands Unified (urban): math 44% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #390 of 1,400 in CA (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 103 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; 28% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,600 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.51%
• DSCR: 2.05
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $215,836
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: -25.87%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1251 E Lugonia Ave #18	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-2%)	1mo	$155,000	$108	96
1423 Century	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-2%)	3mo	$299,000	$208	88
1251 E Lugonia Ave #81	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,458 (-0%)	7mo	$225,000	$154	88
1251 Lugonia #54	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-2%)	5mo	$167,500	$116	88
1251 E Lugonia #27	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (-0%)	2mo	$234,600	$161	87
1413 Village	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-2%)	2mo	$315,000	$219	86
1331 Century St	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,368 (-7%)	0mo	$269,500	$197	84
1405 Medallion St	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-2%)	8mo	$310,000	$215	84
1251 Lugonia Ave #3	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+5%)	8mo	$189,000	$123	80
1251 E Lugonia Ave #48	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-8%)	4mo	$210,000	$156	78
1251 E Lugonia	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-8%)	4mo	$179,000	$133	77
1251 E Lugonia Ave #75	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-15%)	1mo	$128,000	$103	75

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.73% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $31,861
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.40×
• Total profit: $107,603
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92374

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 103
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,510 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$200 /mo · $2,400/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$527
• Net cashflow: $878

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,400

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $988	-5% $933	+0% $878	+5% $822	+10% $767
Rent	-10% $679	-5% $778	+0% $878	+5% $977	+10% $1,076
Rate	-1.0pp $958	-0.5pp $918	base $878	+0.5pp $836	+1.0pp $794

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1229 Edwards St #38 Redlands, CA	2.0	2.0	1040	$2,250	$2.16	44d	1	0.15mi
1250 N University St Redlands, CA	2.0	2.0	1140	$2,649	$2.32	0d	1	0.19mi
1255 N University St Redlands, CA	2.0	1.5	935	$2,340	$2.50	44d	1	0.28mi
948 Barbra Ln Redlands, CA	3.0	2.0	1367	$2,695	$1.97	0d	1	0.43mi
1017 Campus Ave Redlands, CA	3.0	1.0	1016	$2,495	$2.46	44d	1	0.46mi
1335 Campus Ave Redlands, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,750	$2.29	44d	1	0.56mi
1218 Oxford Dr Unit C Redlands, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,850	$2.06	44d	1	0.68mi
521 Courier Ave Unit C Redlands, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,000	$2.00	44d	1	0.72mi
755 Judson St Redlands, CA	2.0	2.0	1004	$2,350	$2.34	0d	1	0.75mi
333 N University St Redlands, CA	2.0	2.0	1050	$2,275	$2.17	25d	1	0.89mi
1209 E Central Ave Redlands, CA	3.0	1.5	1100	$2,200	$2.00	13d	1	0.94mi
508 The Terrace Redlands, CA	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,695	$1.54	0d	1	0.97mi
1209 Sixth St Redlands, CA	3.0	3.0	1500	$3,200	$2.13	22d	1	0.97mi
416 The Terrace Redlands, CA	1.0–2.0	1.5	860	$2,195	$2.55	44d	2	0.99mi
135 Cook St Unit 3 Redlands, CA	2.0	1.5	1056	$2,300	$2.18	44d	1	0.99mi
1018 Sixth St Redlands, CA	3.0	2.0	1500	$3,200	$2.13	2d	1	0.99mi
1255 E Citrus Ave Redlands, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	1125	$2,612	$2.32	0d	10	1.02mi
801 Belinda Ln Redlands, CA	3.0	2.0	1040	$2,895	$2.78	0d	1	1.03mi
10 Cortez St Unit 2 Redlands, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,900	$2.42	25d	1	1.08mi
10 Cortez St Unit 2 Redlands, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,900	$2.42	15d	1	1.08mi
1555 Orange St Unit 1007 Redlands, CA	3.0	2.5	1314	$2,850	$2.17	5d	1	1.13mi
1808 Cave St Redlands, CA	3.0	2.5	1569	$3,200	$2.04	45d	1	1.14mi
529 E Central Ave Redlands, CA	3.0	2.0	925	$2,750	$2.97	44d	1	1.17mi
1312 Live Oak Ct Unit 1 Redlands, CA	3.0	2.0	1120	$2,895	$2.58	44d	1	1.34mi
315 W Sun Ave Redlands, CA	2.0	1.0	1307	$2,300	$1.76	44d	1	1.38mi
503 W Lugonia Ave Redlands, CA	2.0	2.0	1357	$2,500	$1.84	21d	1	1.39mi
263 Greenbriar Ct Redlands, CA	3.0	2.0	1256	$3,395	$2.70	0d	1	1.44mi
22 S Dearborn St Redlands, CA	3.0	2.5	1437	$2,900	$2.02	44d	1	1.44mi
246 E Fern Ave #103 Redlands, CA	2.0	2.0	1188	$2,550	$2.15	5d	1	1.47mi
475 E Cypress Ave Redlands, CA	2.0	2.0	1606	$2,350	$1.46	0d	6	1.47mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 111 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 110 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 109 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 108 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 106 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 105 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 102 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 101 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $160,000 Active 100 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $160,000 Active 97 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 96 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 95 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 94 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 93 DOM
15. 2026-04-29
    price $160,000 741-char remark

    Show marketing remark (741 chars)

    Move-in ready and full of charm! This beautifully maintained 1,464 sq ft double wide manufactured home is located in the highly desirable Lugonia Fountains 55+ community. Offering a spacious and bright open layout, the home features abundant natural light throughout. The kitchen is generously sized with ample cabinetry and counter space - perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Enjoy drought tolerant landscape for easy low-maintenance living. Residents of the community have access to wonderful amenities including a clubhouse with kitchen, pool tables, spa and swimming pool, with the option to reserve for special occasions. Conveniently located near the University of Redlands, shopping, restaurants and has easy freeway access.

16. 2026-02-27
    listed $167,000 Active 741-char remark

    Show marketing remark (741 chars)

    Move-in ready and full of charm! This beautifully maintained 1,464 sq ft double wide manufactured home is located in the highly desirable Lugonia Fountains 55+ community. Offering a spacious and bright open layout, the home features abundant natural light throughout. The kitchen is generously sized with ample cabinetry and counter space - perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Enjoy drought tolerant landscape for easy low-maintenance living. Residents of the community have access to wonderful amenities including a clubhouse with kitchen, pool tables, spa and swimming pool, with the option to reserve for special occasions. Conveniently located near the University of Redlands, shopping, restaurants and has easy freeway access.

17. 2025-06-06
    price $169,900
18. 2025-05-15
    listed $175,000 Active
19. 2025-01-25
    listed $175,000 Active
20. 2023-01-26
    soldstatus $125,000 Closed Sale
21. 2022-11-18
    status Pending Sale
22. 2022-08-03
    status Active
23. 2022-07-20
    historical Active Under Contract
24. 2022-03-22
    price $140,000
25. 2022-03-22
    status Active
26. 2022-02-23
    historical Active Under Contract
27. 2021-11-19
    listed $135,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 35 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,126
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$2,400
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,410
• − Management: −$2,410
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $8,489
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,037
• After-tax cash flow: $8,493/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready manufactured home in Lugonia Fountains 55+ community is in good condition with minimal maintenance required. It offers a spacious and bright open layout with modern amenities and a well-maintained exterior.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint touch-ups — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping maintenance — Well-maintained landscaping improves curb appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint touch-ups — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping maintenance — Well-maintained landscaping improves curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Redlands Unified
• NCES district ID: 0632070
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $67,959
• Composite: 46.88/100
• National rank: #5185
• State rank: #390 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Redlands

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #118
• US rank: #4193

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety D User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Redlands, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 80,519
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 45,262
• Household income: $102,813
• Rent vs Own: 42.3% rent · 57.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1176.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% White 37% Two or more races 19% Asian 8% Black 6% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -425.72%
• Current HPI: 367.6123
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.73%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+18.5% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $160,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $167,000 CRMLS
• 2025-06-06 Price Changed $169,900 CRMLS
• 2025-05-15 Listed $175,000 CRMLS
• 2025-01-25 Listed $175,000 CRMLS
• 2023-01-26 Sold (MLS) $125,000 CRMLS
• 2022-11-18 Pending — CRMLS
• 2022-08-03 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2022-07-20 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2022-03-22 Price Changed $140,000 CRMLS
• 2022-03-22 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2022-02-23 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2021-11-19 Listed $135,000 CRMLS