1507 Arling Ave · Louisville, KY 40215

$154,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,148 sqft · SingleFamily · 7 Days on market

Built 1952 3,751 sqft lot Est $179k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• ARV discount +13.7/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3 bed room 2 full tiled baths, fresh paint, wood floors. Great natural light through out, large living room, second floor could be master suite with large closet and private tiled bath. partial basement, off street parking and side driveway.

Key facts

• Primary suite
• Iroquois park access
• Covered rear porch

Tags

• PRIMARY SUITE
• COVERED REAR PORCH
• MATURE TREES
• IROQUOIS PARK ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Nicholson; Directions: Watterson Expressway to Taylor Blvd south then right on Arling
• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family residence in a traditional style; Two stories; Built in 1952
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Shingle roof; Poured concrete foundation
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; Sidewalks; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor; Eat-in kitchen with access to a covered porch
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms total; Primary bedroom located on the second floor (very spacious); Two first-floor bedrooms
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Primary bathroom located on the second floor; Full bathroom on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Six rooms total; Four closets; Unfinished cellar basement with outside entry; Basement present
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room in the basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $154k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $25 ($301/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (16.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $128k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 5.0% in Louisville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#333 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, schools D-.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 121 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($44k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 12 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $154k implies a 197% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $128,439 (16.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.70%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $179,088
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1518 Arling Ave	0.04mi	3/1.0	1,144 (-0%)	2mo	$175,000	$153	91
1500 Huntoon Ave	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,156 (+1%)	6mo	$200,000	$173	87
1409 Arling Ave	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+4%)	4mo	$136,250	$114	84
1614 Haskin Ave	0.17mi	3/1.0	1,262 (+10%)	8mo	$209,000	$166	65
1317 Oakwood Ave	0.27mi	3/1.0	1,018 (-11%)	4mo	$137,500	$135	61
1215 W Woodlawn Ave	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,119 (-2%)	5mo	$175,000	$156	59
4101 Churchman Ave	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,097 (-4%)	7mo	$180,000	$164	55
1330 Bluegrass Ave	0.37mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,060 (-8%)	8mo	$125,000	$118	54
1415 Woody Ave	0.28mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,018 (-11%)	9mo	$140,000	$138	52
1121 Walter Ave	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,013 (-12%)	10mo	$186,000	$184	51
4623 Picadilly Ave	0.72mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,277 (+11%)	1mo	$195,000	$153	37
6603 Norway Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,307 (+14%)	9mo	$213,000	$163	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-20,615
• Equity at exit: $23,036

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-3,781
• Equity at exit: $13,358

Cash invested: $43,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40215

• Home prices YoY: -34.4%
• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 121
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,284 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$810
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,380/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $25

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,253

Max offer price $154,500

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $113	-5% $69	+0% $25	+5% $-19	+10% $-62
Rent	-10% $-76	-5% $-26	+0% $25	+5% $76	+10% $127
Rate	-1.0pp $103	-0.5pp $64	base $25	+0.5pp $-15	+1.0pp $-56

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,625
• Closing costs: $4,635
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1507 Arling Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1148	$1,275	$1.11	16d	1	0.00mi
1517 Shingo Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,349	$1.23	24d	1	0.06mi
4122 Craig Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	705	$1,051	$1.49	12d	1	0.64mi
4113 La Salle Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	875	$1,249	$1.43	16d	1	0.65mi
2200 Rosewood Way Louisville, KY	2.0	1.5	900	$1,159	$1.29	3d	1	0.67mi
4046 Taylor Blvd Unit 2 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	800	$900	$1.12	24d	1	0.67mi
4000 Churchman Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	16d	1	0.88mi
5107 Reed Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	864	$1,200	$1.39	4d	1	0.92mi
418 Marshall Walk Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	850	$1,095	$1.29	24d	1	0.92mi
327 Inverness Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	820	$1,150	$1.40	16d	1	0.96mi
6100 Ledgewood Pkwy Unit 6214-3 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	825	$850	$1.03	3d	1	0.99mi
6100 Ledgewood Pkwy Unit 6213-4 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	825	$850	$1.03	24d	1	0.99mi
6100 Ledgewood Pkwy Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	825	$850	$1.03	16d	9	1.00mi
4725 Southern Pkwy Unit 1 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	1296	$925	$0.71	4d	1	1.03mi
3746 Kahlert Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	955	$1,350	$1.41	16d	1	1.03mi
1022 Stanley Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	700	$1,200	$1.71	22d	1	1.09mi
3717 Wheeler Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,450	$1.29	24d	1	1.15mi
4626 Southern Pkwy Louisville, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0	809	$895	$1.11	15d	3	1.18mi
5011 Southside Dr Louisville, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,067	$1.33	24d	1	1.22mi
5011 Southside Dr Louisville, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$975	$1.22	2d	9	1.22mi
3655 Kahlert Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	915	$1,300	$1.42	12d	1	1.27mi
3700 Georgetown Pl Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	800	$901	$1.13	24d	1	1.28mi
3700 Georgetown Pl Unit 2302-201 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	800	$901	$1.13	12d	1	1.28mi
1105 Beecher St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	708	$1,150	$1.62	16d	1	1.29mi
4608 S 3rd St Unit 1st Floor Louisville, KY	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,500	$1.36	24d	1	1.30mi
1118 W Whitney Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	771	$1,199	$1.56	24d	1	1.36mi
3627 Parthenia Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	900	$1,245	$1.38	24d	1	1.37mi
518 Iroquois Garden Dr Louisville, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	850	$999	$1.18	4d	27	1.38mi
104 Kenwood Ct Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	875	$985	$1.13	24d	1	1.38mi
1519 Crums Ln Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	820	$888	$1.08	16d	2	1.41mi
1519 Crums Ln Apt 25 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	820	$900	$1.10	24d	1	1.45mi
3523 Georgetown Pl #3 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	850	$850	$1.00	17d	1	1.49mi
910 W Whitney Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1186	$1,450	$1.22	12d	1	1.49mi
910 W Whitney Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1186	$1,450	$1.22	2d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $154,500 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $154,500 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $154,500 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $154,500 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 643-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $154,500 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,380 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,380 · $115/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,413
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,654
• − Property taxes: −$1,380
• − Insurance: −$772
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,233
• − Management: −$1,233
• − Depreciation: −$4,495
• Taxable loss: −$2,355
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$565
• After-tax cash flow: $866/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #333
• US rank: #15887

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville, KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 769,292
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 20,532
• Household income: $43,725
• Rent vs Own: 56.4% rent · 43.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 997.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 33% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Romanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -119.35%
• Current HPI: 227.8248
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.16%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-98.1% since first listed

30 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Rental Removed $1,275 APPFOLIO
• 2026-06-11 Listed $154,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-04-11 Listed for Rent $1,275 APPFOLIO
• 2026-04-02 Rental Removed $1,275 APPFOLIO
• 2026-03-30 Listed for Rent $1,275 APPFOLIO
• 2017-07-19 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records
• 2017-07-12 Sold (MLS) $52,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2017-06-10 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2017-03-23 Relisted — Metro Search MLS
• 2017-03-23 Price Changed $64,400 Metro Search MLS
• 2017-03-23 Price Changed $61,400 Metro Search MLS
• 2017-03-23 Price Changed $58,400 Metro Search MLS
• 2017-03-18 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2017-01-11 Listed $69,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2017-01-11 Price Changed $66,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2013-03-07 Sold (MLS) $32,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2012-09-12 Listed $42,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2010-03-26 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2009-08-07 Listed $112,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2009-07-29 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2008-07-11 Listed $78,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2007-12-06 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2007-10-22 Listed $89,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2007-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $67,000 Public Records
• 2007-08-28 Sold (MLS) $67,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2007-07-13 Listed $67,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2005-03-25 Sold (MLS) $72,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2004-11-30 Listed $72,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2004-11-29 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2004-08-28 Listed $68,900 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+11.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,380 · +56.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.