2603 Dublin Dr · Augusta-Richmond County consolidated government (balance), GA 30906

$149,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,242 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 120 Days on market

Built 1972 10,018 sqft lot $120/sqft · at area comps Est $151k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.3/30.0
• ARV discount +8.2/15.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Brick Home 4 Bedrooms 1 and 1/2 Bath

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• 3 parking spots
• Built 1972

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $299 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 5.3% in Augusta-Richmond County consolidated government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Richmond County (urban): math 12% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #154 of 174 in GA (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 364 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 561 units permitted in Richmond County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($46k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Richmond County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $149k implies a 209% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,590 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.59%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $151,301
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: -1.52%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2617 Dublin Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-3%)	8mo	$180,000	$150	80
2608 Dublin Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (+5%)	10mo	$175,000	$135	75
2512 Drayton Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+5%)	11mo	$169,000	$130	72
2507 Drayton Dr	0.23mi	3/1.5	1,300 (+5%)	12mo	$157,900	$121	71
3703 Stockholm Dr	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,340 (+8%)	2mo	$180,000	$134	70
2606 Audusson Ct	0.38mi	3/1.5	1,300 (+5%)	8mo	$102,000	$78	68
2477 Dublin Dr	0.32mi	3/1.5	1,325 (+7%)	10mo	$123,000	$93	66
2896 Rasha Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,212 (-2%)	2mo	$184,000	$152	65
3049 Libby Drive Dr	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,203 (-3%)	11mo	$149,900	$125	56
3042 Johnny Ct	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,344 (+8%)	3mo	$165,000	$123	51
3621 Mount View Dr. Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,310 (+6%)	8mo	$170,000	$130	48
2417 Luxembourg Dr	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,140 (-8%)	10mo	$111,500	$98	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-9,648
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,415
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30906

• Home prices YoY: -21.6%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 364
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,528 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $776/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $299

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,150

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $383	-5% $341	+0% $299	+5% $257	+10% $214
Rent	-10% $178	-5% $238	+0% $299	+5% $359	+10% $419
Rate	-1.0pp $374	-0.5pp $337	base $299	+0.5pp $260	+1.0pp $221

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2609 Dublin Dr Augusta, GA	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,395	$1.00	14d	1	0.06mi
2524 Drayton Dr Augusta, GA	3.0	2.0	1404	$1,700	$1.21	44d	1	0.10mi
2631 Drayton Dr Augusta, GA	3.0	2.0	1404	$1,430	$1.02	14d	1	0.19mi
2708 Blossom Dr Unit B Augusta, GA	2.0	1.5	896	$950	$1.06	44d	1	0.54mi
3001 Alene Ct Augusta, GA	4.0	2.0	1288	$1,631	$1.27	24d	1	0.90mi
3613 Alene Cir Augusta, GA	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,325	$1.05	14d	1	0.93mi
3200 Deans Bridge Rd Augusta, GA	1.0–4.0	1.0–1.5	1075	$970	$0.90	24d	6	1.08mi
2813 Leawood Ct Hephzibah, GA	3.0	2.0	1377	$1,250	$0.91	44d	1	1.11mi
2941 Rollingwood Dr Augusta, GA	3.0	2.0	1297	$1,750	$1.35	24d	1	1.11mi
2834 Brentway Dr Hephzibah, GA	3.0	2.0	1475	$1,600	$1.08	44d	1	1.22mi
3412 Kensington Dr N Augusta, GA	3.0	2.0	1225	$1,350	$1.10	24d	1	1.27mi
2338 Helsinki Dr Augusta, GA	3.0	1.5	1025	$1,245	$1.21	24d	1	1.28mi
3543 Windermere Dr Hephzibah, GA	4.0	2.0	1394	$1,550	$1.11	44d	1	1.43mi
3543 Windermere Dr Hephzibah, GA	4.0	2.0	1394	$1,550	$1.11	24d	1	1.43mi
3524 Edgeworth Dr Hephzibah, GA	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,295	$1.08	24d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-22
   price $149,000 39-char remark

   Show marketing remark (39 chars)

   Brick Home 4 Bedrooms 1 and 1/2 Bath

2. 2026-01-20
   listed $172,900 Active 39-char remark

   Show marketing remark (39 chars)

   Brick Home 4 Bedrooms 1 and 1/2 Bath

3. 2024-12-30
   historical
4. 2024-11-12
   historical
5. 2024-08-08
   listed $148,500 Active
6. 2024-08-08
   listed $148,500 New
7. 1990-10-29
   soldstatus $48,283

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $776 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,371 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$595/yr (+$50/mo · 76.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,332
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$776
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,467
• − Management: −$1,467
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $1,197
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$287
• After-tax cash flow: $3,297/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Richmond County
• NCES district ID: 1304380
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,069
• Composite: 13.43/100
• National rank: #9524
• State rank: #154 of 174 in GA

Livability — Augusta-Richmond County consolidated government (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Augusta-Richmond County consolidated government (balance), GA
• County: Richmond County · 190,917 people
• City population: 154,035
• Metro: Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC
• Population (ZIP): 60,423
• Household income: $45,999
• Rent vs Own: 46.5% rent · 53.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 3363.0

Population outlook (Richmond County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 200,753 people
• By 2030: 200,232 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 196,813 · -2.0%
• By 2050: 190,347 · -5.2%
• By 2075: 172,496 · -14.1%
• By 2100: 146,284 · -27.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 64% White 27% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Richmond

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+36.1) · D 67.8% · R 31.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.3pp toward D · 2008: 31.8pp · 2024: 36.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+36.1 2020: D+37.2 2016: D+32.4 2012: D+33.8 2008: D+31.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.99%
• Current HPI: 213.5733
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.25%
• Metro: Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+208.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $149,000 FMLS
• 2026-01-20 Listed $172,900 FMLS
• 2024-12-30 Listing Removed — FMLS
• 2024-11-12 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2024-08-08 Listed $148,500 GAMLS
• 2024-08-08 Listed $148,500 FMLS
• 1990-10-29 Sold (Public Records) $48,283 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $776 · +13.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.