6935 Swan Creek Rd · Shields, MI 48609

$99,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,122 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 151 Days on market

Built 1900 0.91 ac lot $89/sqft · 38% below area Est $160k · 38% under ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3-bedroom, 1-bath Cape Cod–style home sits on nearly an acre, offering plenty of space and potential. The classic layout provides cozy living areas and a functional floor plan, ready for your personal touch. While the home is in need of some TLC, it presents a great opportunity for buyers looking to renovate, invest, or create their own vision. The generous lot offers room to expand, garden, or simply enjoy the peaceful setting. A solid opportunity for those wanting a property with character and room to grow.

Key facts

• Generous lot
• Peaceful setting
• Cape cod style

Tags

• CAPE COD STYLE
• GENEROUS LOT
• PEACEFUL SETTING
• ROOM TO EXPAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $690 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.6% vs local median 4.5% in Shields — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#59 in MI, #1,310 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Swan Valley School District (suburban): math 42% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #104 of 540 in MI (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $87,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.64% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.58%
• DSCR: 2.32
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $160,006
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -37.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6895 Swan Creek Rd	0.05mi	3/1.0	1,248 (+11%)	13mo	$149,700	$120	68
6925 Swan Creek Rd	0.01mi	2/1.0 (-1)	980 (-13%)	16mo	$87,600	$89	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.99×
• Total profit: $27,701
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.88×
• Total profit: $80,561
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48609

• Home prices YoY: -34.2%
• Active inventory: 72
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,640 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $482/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $690

Break-even live

Break-even rent $767

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,900 Active 151 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 150 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 149 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 148 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 147 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,900 Active 145 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $99,900 Active 144 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $104,900 Active 141 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $104,900 Active 140 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $104,900 Active 139 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    status $104,900 Pending 137 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $104,900 Active 137 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $104,900 Active 136 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $104,900 Active 135 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $104,900 Active 134 DOM
16. 2026-04-21
    price $104,900 525-char remark

    Show marketing remark (525 chars)

    This 3-bedroom, 1-bath Cape Cod–style home sits on nearly an acre, offering plenty of space and potential. The classic layout provides cozy living areas and a functional floor plan, ready for your personal touch. While the home is in need of some TLC, it presents a great opportunity for buyers looking to renovate, invest, or create their own vision. The generous lot offers room to expand, garden, or simply enjoy the peaceful setting. A solid opportunity for those wanting a property with character and room to grow.

17. 2026-04-20
    price $104,900 531-char remark

    Show marketing remark (531 chars)

    This 3-bedroom, 1-bath Cape Cod"“style home sits on nearly an acre, offering plenty of space and potential. The classic layout provides cozy living areas and a functional floor plan, ready for your personal touch. While the home is in need of some TLC, it presents a great opportunity for buyers looking to renovate, invest, or create their own vision. The generous lot offers room to expand, garden, or simply enjoy the peaceful setting. A solid opportunity for those wanting a property with character and room to grow.

18. 2026-03-03
    price $109,900 525-char remark

    Show marketing remark (531 chars)

    This 3-bedroom, 1-bath Cape Cod"“style home sits on nearly an acre, offering plenty of space and potential. The classic layout provides cozy living areas and a functional floor plan, ready for your personal touch. While the home is in need of some TLC, it presents a great opportunity for buyers looking to renovate, invest, or create their own vision. The generous lot offers room to expand, garden, or simply enjoy the peaceful setting. A solid opportunity for those wanting a property with character and room to grow.

19. 2026-03-03
    price $109,900 531-char remark

    Show marketing remark (531 chars)

    This 3-bedroom, 1-bath Cape Cod"“style home sits on nearly an acre, offering plenty of space and potential. The classic layout provides cozy living areas and a functional floor plan, ready for your personal touch. While the home is in need of some TLC, it presents a great opportunity for buyers looking to renovate, invest, or create their own vision. The generous lot offers room to expand, garden, or simply enjoy the peaceful setting. A solid opportunity for those wanting a property with character and room to grow.

20. 2026-02-03
    price $119,900 525-char remark

    Show marketing remark (525 chars)

    This 3-bedroom, 1-bath Cape Cod–style home sits on nearly an acre, offering plenty of space and potential. The classic layout provides cozy living areas and a functional floor plan, ready for your personal touch. While the home is in need of some TLC, it presents a great opportunity for buyers looking to renovate, invest, or create their own vision. The generous lot offers room to expand, garden, or simply enjoy the peaceful setting. A solid opportunity for those wanting a property with character and room to grow.

21. 2026-02-02
    price $119,900 531-char remark

    Show marketing remark (531 chars)

    This 3-bedroom, 1-bath Cape Cod"“style home sits on nearly an acre, offering plenty of space and potential. The classic layout provides cozy living areas and a functional floor plan, ready for your personal touch. While the home is in need of some TLC, it presents a great opportunity for buyers looking to renovate, invest, or create their own vision. The generous lot offers room to expand, garden, or simply enjoy the peaceful setting. A solid opportunity for those wanting a property with character and room to grow.

22. 2026-01-16
    listed $129,900 Active 531-char remark

    Show marketing remark (525 chars)

    This 3-bedroom, 1-bath Cape Cod–style home sits on nearly an acre, offering plenty of space and potential. The classic layout provides cozy living areas and a functional floor plan, ready for your personal touch. While the home is in need of some TLC, it presents a great opportunity for buyers looking to renovate, invest, or create their own vision. The generous lot offers room to expand, garden, or simply enjoy the peaceful setting. A solid opportunity for those wanting a property with character and room to grow.

23. 2026-01-16
    listed $129,900 Active 525-char remark

    Show marketing remark (525 chars)

    This 3-bedroom, 1-bath Cape Cod–style home sits on nearly an acre, offering plenty of space and potential. The classic layout provides cozy living areas and a functional floor plan, ready for your personal touch. While the home is in need of some TLC, it presents a great opportunity for buyers looking to renovate, invest, or create their own vision. The generous lot offers room to expand, garden, or simply enjoy the peaceful setting. A solid opportunity for those wanting a property with character and room to grow.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $482 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,010 · $84/mo
• Expected delta: +$528/yr (+$44/mo · 109.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,675
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$482
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,574
• − Management: −$1,574
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $7,043
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,690
• After-tax cash flow: $6,584/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Swan Valley School District
• NCES district ID: 2633410
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $54,994
• Composite: 42.38/100
• National rank: #3241
• State rank: #104 of 540 in MI

Livability — Shields

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #1310

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,206

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Indo-European 6% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.03%
• Current HPI: 179.2881
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-19.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $104,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $104,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $109,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $109,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $119,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $119,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-01-16 Listed $129,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-01-16 Listed $129,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $482 · -73.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.