The Somerville (3L16) Plan · Conroe, TX 77316

$322,940

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,523 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy this spectacular home with plenty of space for entertaining. The foyer reveals a formal dining room that can be converted to fit your needs. Upstairs you'll find the game room and secondary bedrooms.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $322,940

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Home design: Plan: The Somerville (3L16); New construction plan

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Living area approximately 2523

🏗️ New construction. The $322,940 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $397,426.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $323k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-547 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $318k (1.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $278k (13.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $278k (13.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2283 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $278,472 (13.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.89%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $397,426
• List price: $322,940
• Delta: -18.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17718 Hanson Ridge Dr	0.22mi	4/3.5	2,530 (+0%)	1mo	$327,500	$129	87
17929 Canopy Trace Ct	0.21mi	4/3.0	2,621 (+4%)	1mo	$325,000	$124	83
17732 Mill Manor Dr	0.34mi	4/2.5	2,636 (+4%)	0mo	$364,560	$138	74
124 Bay Bridge Ct	0.29mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,636 (+4%)	1mo	$342,260	$130	73
220 Raine Manor Ct	0.35mi	4/3.0	2,284 (-10%)	2mo	$330,900	$145	66
17744 Mill Mnr	0.37mi	4/3.0	2,267 (-10%)	1mo	$356,610	$157	65
314 Bayshore Dr	0.66mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,383 (-6%)	2mo	$940,000	$394	53
17779 Mill Manor Dr	0.46mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,800 (+11%)	0mo	$351,790	$126	51
17881 Stone Terrace Ln	0.59mi	4/3.0	2,180 (-14%)	1mo	$279,990	$128	49
11 Villas Ways Dr	0.66mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,336 (-7%)	1mo	$935,000	$400	49
17796 Mill Manor Dr	0.50mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,800 (+11%)	1mo	$329,340	$118	48
17804 Mill Manor Dr	0.51mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,800 (+11%)	2mo	$352,340	$126	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-106,272
• Equity at exit: $59,258

10-year hold

• IRR: -44.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.48×
• Total profit: $-164,855
• Equity at exit: $34,362

Cash invested: $111,279 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2283
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,785 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,084
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$497 /mo · $5,961/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$585
• Net cashflow: $-547

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,477

Max offer price $318,333

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-272	-5% $-409	+0% $-547	+5% $-684	+10% $-821
Rent	-10% $-767	-5% $-657	+0% $-547	+5% $-437	+10% $-327
Rate	-1.0pp $-346	-0.5pp $-446	base $-547	+0.5pp $-650	+1.0pp $-754

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,357
• Closing costs: $11,923
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17685 Martin Creek Ln Montgomery, TX	4.0	3.5	3500	$2,999	$0.86	44d	1	0.06mi
275 Pine Terrace Dr Unit 5106C Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.5	1773	$2,820	$1.59	44d	1	0.31mi
18436 Sunrise Pines Dr Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	1952	$2,200	$1.13	44d	1	0.75mi
18490 Sunrise Pines Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.5	1976	$1,731	$0.88	13d	1	0.88mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-17
   remarks 205-char remark
2. 2026-06-17
   days on marketlisting id $322,940 Active 1 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $322,940 Active 958 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $322,940 Active 957 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $322,940 Active 955 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $322,940 Active 954 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $322,940 Active 951 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $322,940 Active 950 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $322,940 Active 949 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $322,940 Active 946 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $322,940 Active 945 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $320,940 Active 944 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $320,940 Active 943 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $320,940 Active 942 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    price $329,940 205-char remark
16. 2026-05-07
    price $320,940 205-char remark
17. 2026-05-02
    price $357,940 205-char remark
18. 2026-05-01
    price $352,940 205-char remark
19. 2026-04-24
    price $353,940 205-char remark
20. 2026-04-23
    price $352,940 205-char remark
21. 2026-04-22
    price $353,940 205-char remark
22. 2026-04-03
    price $351,940 205-char remark
23. 2026-03-15
    price $362,990 205-char remark
24. 2026-03-11
    price $341,390 205-char remark
25. 2026-03-07
    price $323,190 205-char remark
26. 2026-03-04
    price $310,390 205-char remark
27. 2026-02-20
    price $308,390 205-char remark
28. 2026-02-12
    price $306,390 205-char remark
29. 2026-01-29
    price $316,390 205-char remark
30. 2026-01-15
    price $321,390 205-char remark
31. 2026-01-11
    price $320,390 205-char remark
32. 2026-01-04
    price $341,390 205-char remark
33. 2025-12-18
    price $339,390 205-char remark
34. 2025-12-03
    price $348,390 205-char remark
35. 2025-11-06
    price $354,190 205-char remark
36. 2025-10-31
    price $325,995 205-char remark
37. 2025-09-27
    price $340,995 205-char remark
38. 2025-09-26
    price $349,995 205-char remark
39. 2025-09-23
    price $340,995 205-char remark
40. 2025-08-10
    price $349,995 205-char remark
41. 2025-07-24
    price $362,140 205-char remark
42. 2025-07-15
    price $372,140 205-char remark
43. 2025-06-20
    price $375,140 205-char remark
44. 2025-06-08
    price $373,140 205-char remark
45. 2025-05-13
    price $343,170 205-char remark
46. 2025-04-27
    price $358,170 205-char remark
47. 2025-04-22
    price $357,170 205-char remark
48. 2025-04-05
    price $349,220 205-char remark
49. 2025-02-18
    price $346,220 205-char remark
50. 2025-02-02
    price $356,220 205-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,417
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,262
• − Property taxes: −$5,961
• − Insurance: −$1,987
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,673
• − Management: −$2,673
• − Depreciation: −$11,561
• Taxable loss: −$13,702
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,289
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,271/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B