21601 Canyon #28 · Wildomar, CA 92595

$162,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Manufactured public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1975

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come and see this cozy manufactured home. This is a wonderful community to live in. Freeway close to Corona, San Diego, Orange County. Perfect location. This home is in great condition. Park rent is low. Age restricted. Must be 55 or older.

Key facts

• Bright living area
• Stylish kitchen
• Natural light

Tags

• MODERN FINISHES
• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• BRIGHT LIVING AREA
• STYLISH KITCHEN
• NATURAL LIGHT
• FANTASTIC AMENITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease $1,200 monthly — land lease community; Manager approval required
• HOA & community: Senior community; Suburban neighborhood

Exterior

• Parking: Located in Canyon Homes park
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/Public water
• Home design: Single-story; Mobile home (24' x 59') — mobile home remains; Living area per assessor
• Construction: Year built per assessor
• Exterior features: Community pool; Landscaped

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Entry at ground level; Inside laundry
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $162k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $641 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $162k).
• Recommended offer: $160k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 3.3% in Wildomar — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#951 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Lake Elsinore Unified (suburban): math 34% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #210 of 517 in CA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 145 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $162k implies a 826% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,570 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.95%
• DSCR: 1.75
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $8,060
• Equity at exit: $24,155

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $34,465
• Equity at exit: $14,007

Cash invested: $45,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92595

• Home prices YoY: -23.8%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,228 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$850
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$202 /mo · $2,430/yr
• Insurance: −$68
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
• Net cashflow: $641

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,417

Max offer price $162,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $753	-5% $697	+0% $641	+5% $585	+10% $529
Rent	-10% $465	-5% $553	+0% $641	+5% $729	+10% $817
Rate	-1.0pp $722	-0.5pp $682	base $641	+0.5pp $599	+1.0pp $556

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,500
• Closing costs: $4,860
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $162,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $162,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $162,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $162,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $162,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $162,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $162,000 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $172,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $172,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $172,000 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $172,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $172,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $172,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $172,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-20
    listed $172,000 Active
16. 2018-02-02
    soldstatus $17,500 Closed Sale 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    Come and see this cozy manufactured home. This is a wonderful community to live in. Freeway close to Corona, San Diego, Orange County. Perfect location. This home is in great condition. Park rent is low. Age restricted. Must be 55 or older.

17. 2018-01-13
    status Pending Sale 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    Come and see this cozy manufactured home. This is a wonderful community to live in. Freeway close to Corona, San Diego, Orange County. Perfect location. This home is in great condition. Park rent is low. Age restricted. Must be 55 or older.

18. 2017-12-20
    historical Active Under Contract 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    Come and see this cozy manufactured home. This is a wonderful community to live in. Freeway close to Corona, San Diego, Orange County. Perfect location. This home is in great condition. Park rent is low. Age restricted. Must be 55 or older.

19. 2017-11-30
    price $26,900 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    Come and see this cozy manufactured home. This is a wonderful community to live in. Freeway close to Corona, San Diego, Orange County. Perfect location. This home is in great condition. Park rent is low. Age restricted. Must be 55 or older.

20. 2017-11-14
    listed $30,900 Active 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    Come and see this cozy manufactured home. This is a wonderful community to live in. Freeway close to Corona, San Diego, Orange County. Perfect location. This home is in great condition. Park rent is low. Age restricted. Must be 55 or older.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,738
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,075
• − Property taxes: −$2,430
• − Insurance: −$810
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,139
• − Management: −$2,139
• − Depreciation: −$4,713
• Taxable income: $5,433
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,304
• After-tax cash flow: $6,385/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Elsinore Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600027
• Math proficiency: 34% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $63,829
• Composite: 37.01/100
• National rank: #4518
• State rank: #210 of 517 in CA

Livability — Wildomar

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #951
• US rank: #24427

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wildomar, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 34,438
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 34,438
• Household income: $106,047
• Rent vs Own: 21.0% rent · 79.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 429.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 18% Asian 5% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 25% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -110.47%
• Current HPI: 354.397
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.12%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+456.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $172,000 CRMLS
• 2018-02-02 Sold (MLS) $17,500 CRMLS
• 2018-01-13 Pending — CRMLS
• 2017-12-20 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2017-11-30 Price Changed $26,900 CRMLS
• 2017-11-14 Listed $30,900 CRMLS

Property tax history

-8.9%/yr

Latest (2022): $85 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.