236 Ramsgate Way · Lake Alfred, FL 33844

$139,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Manufactured public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1995 3,999 sqft lot $387/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to easy Florida living in the highly sought-after 55+ gated community of Sweetwater Golf & Tennis Club! This beautifully maintained home offers the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and resort-style amenities. Featuring a spacious open floor plan, generous living areas, and plenty of natural light, this residence is ideal for year-round living or a seasonal retreat. Golf Cart is included! New AC in 2025! New Flooring in 2026! Enjoy relaxing mornings on your screened lanai and take advantage of the community's outstanding amenities, including golf, tennis, pickleball, clubhouse, fitness center, pool, and access to beautiful Lake Henry. Conveniently located near shopping, d

Key facts

• Gated community
• Fitness center
• Lake henry

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• SCREENED LANAI
• FITNESS CENTER
• LAKE HENRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished; Located on 17/92 West in Haines City near Polk County Government Building
• Financial info: Total annual fees $4,644; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly fee $387); HOA fee includes cable TV, internet, grounds maintenance, pool, private road, recreational facilities, sewer, trash; Association amenities: Cable TV, Fitness Center, Gated community, Pool, Recreation facilities, Tennis courts; Association approval required; Community features: Clubhouse, Deed restrictions, Dog park, Fitness center, Golf (golf carts OK), Reclaimed irrigation, Pool, Tennis courts; Pets allowed (cats and dogs); Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Asphalt road access
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One story; Northeast facing; Residential property, completed condition
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Other foundation
• Exterior features: Awnings

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Florida room; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Outdoor laundry area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $301 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $135k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#363 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1333 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $139k implies a 114% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $134,830 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.27%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-6,714
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $5,638
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1333
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,943 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $727/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$387
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $301

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,563

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $379	-5% $340	+0% $301	+5% $261	+10% $222
Rent	-10% $147	-5% $224	+0% $301	+5% $377	+10% $454
Rate	-1.0pp $371	-0.5pp $336	base $301	+0.5pp $265	+1.0pp $228

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
161 Greenview Dr #161 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$2,100	$2.21	24d	1	0.62mi
1901 US Highway 17 92 Lake Alfred, FL	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,900	$1.74	15d	1	1.10mi
6004 Bimini Ave Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,750	$1.18	24d	1	1.23mi
3000 US Highway 17 92 W Haines City, FL	2.0	2.0	1248	$1,800	$1.44	4d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $387 · $4,644/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolgymsecurity

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,000 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $139,000 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $139,000 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,000 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-04-28
    listed $145,000 Active
16. 2001-10-01
    soldstatus $65,000
17. 1999-03-10
    soldstatus $53,900
18. 1995-11-22
    soldstatus $65,100

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $727 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,154 · $96/mo
• Expected delta: +$427/yr (+$36/mo · 58.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,317
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$727
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,865
• − Management: −$1,865
• − HOA: −$4,644
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $1,690
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$406
• After-tax cash flow: $3,201/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Alfred

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #363
• US rank: #6406

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 9,757
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+122.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Listed $145,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 1999-03-10 Sold (Public Records) $53,900 Public Records
• 1995-11-22 Sold (Public Records) $65,100 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $727 · +20.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.