102 Newcastle Blvd · Lake Alfred, FL 33844

$159,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Manufactured public records · 81 Days on market

Built 1990 4,665 sqft lot $387/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This well maintained 1990 Palm Harbor home sits on a corner lot. 1040 SF plus 117 additional as part of the Florida room attached to the living room. Air conditioning, and roof replaced 2023. Double pane windows with vinyl siding makes for easy upkeep. Kitchen was updated in 2005 with drawers and lazy Susan for ease of storage. Dishwasher & Microwave was replaced in 2024; hot water tank was new in 2022. No gray pipe plumbing to be concerned about. Nice shaded front porch for sitting and watching traffic and pedestrians enjoy their morning walks. House is partially furniture with a king size bed, sofa, coffee table, side tables and dinette table including 4 chairs. Laundry is located i

Key facts

• 4,665 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Partially furnished; Buyer approval required for community
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply; Total annual association fees reported as $4,644
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly fee $387); Association name: Erica Mingle; Association approval required; Association fees include cable TV, pool, internet, sewer, trash, water; Community features include clubhouse, fitness center, pool, golf, tennis, dog park, street lights, deed restrictions, golf carts allowed; Senior community; Pets allowed (cats and dogs; number and size limits, max pet weight 20 lbs)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Well water; Private sewer; Cable available/connected; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected; Underground utilities; Sprinkler well
• Home design: Manufactured double wide home; One level; East-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation
• Exterior features: Shade shutters; Asphalt road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan; Living room/dining room combo; Skylight(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup (electric); Indoor laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $130 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#363 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1333 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $117k; 37% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 20% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,306 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.48%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-20,939
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-20,607
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1333
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,928 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$101 /mo · $1,213/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$387
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $130

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,764

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
161 Greenview Dr #161 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$2,100	$2.21	23d	1	0.83mi
6004 Bimini Ave Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,750	$1.18	23d	1	1.03mi
1901 US Highway 17 92 Lake Alfred, FL	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,900	$1.74	14d	1	1.16mi
3000 US Highway 17 92 W Haines City, FL	2.0	2.0	1248	$1,800	$1.44	3d	1	1.25mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $387 · $4,644/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,900 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,900 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,900 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,900 Active 71 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,900 Active 70 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $159,900 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,900 Active 66 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,900 Active 65 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,900 Active 64 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,900 Active 63 DOM
15. 2026-03-29
    listed $159,900 Active
16. 2022-09-01
    soldstatus $117,000
17. 2000-06-02
    soldstatus $45,500
18. 1997-07-15
    soldstatus $42,000
19. 1993-06-01
    soldstatus $17,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,213 · $101/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,327 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: +$114/yr (+$10/mo · 9.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,136
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$1,213
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,851
• − Management: −$1,851
• − HOA: −$4,644
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$831
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$199
• After-tax cash flow: $1,758/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Alfred

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #363
• US rank: #6406

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 9,757
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+840.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-29 Listed $159,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $117,000 Public Records
• 2000-06-02 Sold (Public Records) $45,500 Public Records
• 1997-07-15 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records
• 1993-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $17,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+16.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,213 · +9.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.