7925 Peak Forest Way · Elk Grove, CA 95757

$525,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,371 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 138 Days on market

Built 2014 5,397 sqft lot $383/sqft · 14% below area Est $609k · 14% under $214/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.7/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Cash flow +3.4/30.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to Glenbrooke Del Webb, a vibrant Elk Grove sanctuary where active living meets quiet comfort. This charming single-story residence sits proudly on a corner lot, just a brief stroll from walking paths, a manicured rose garden, and a world-class clubhouse. The heart of this desirable Randall floorplan is its expansive open design, formulated to host gatherings with an open formal living area and a beautifully integrated kitchen. A cook's dream, the kitchen balances thoughtful functionality with expansive counter space and a sunlit breakfast nook. Throughout the two-bedroom, two-bath interior, upscale touches like plantation shutters and plank flooring create an atmosphere of ref

Key facts

• Rose garden
• Clubhouse
• Pool

Tags

• ROSE GARDEN
• WALKING PATHS
• CLUBHOUSE
• BOCCE
• TENNIS PICKLEBALL COURTS
• POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $525k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (54.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $277k (47.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $241k (54.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#212 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• Elk Grove Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #165 of 517 in CA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Arlene Hein Elementary (math 57% / reading 60%, grade B-, #265 of 1,571 statewide, top 17%, 846 students, 30% FRL); Elizabeth Pinkerton Middle (math 53% / reading 70%, grade B+, #52 of 498 statewide, top 11%, 982 students, 29% FRL); Cosumnes Oaks High (math 58% / reading 73%, grade B, #157 of 1,170 statewide, top 14%, 2,212 students, 31% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 62% at this address vs 46% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Elk Grove Unified average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 297 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $56k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $52k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$90k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($462k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $241,017 (54.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 54% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.53% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.12%
• DSCR: 0.42
• GRM: 15.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $608,684
• List price: $525,000
• Delta: -13.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7713 Peak Forest Way	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,371 (0%)	3mo	$535,000	$390	89
9932 Westminster Way	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,372 (+0%)	1mo	$537,500	$392	84
9882 Sheffield Way	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,371 (0%)	2mo	$525,000	$383	82
7448 Abbey Cir	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,343 (-2%)	3mo	$498,000	$371	73
7809 Barnsley Way	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,257 (-8%)	0mo	$515,000	$410	72
7540 Abbey	0.41mi	2/2.0	1,257 (-8%)	1mo	$495,000	$394	66
7417 Chatsworth Cir	0.41mi	2/2.0	1,257 (-8%)	2mo	$490,000	$390	65
9930 Hatherton Way	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,542 (+12%)	0mo	$548,500	$356	65
7908 Dearne Way	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,569 (+14%)	2mo	$555,000	$354	65
8221 Peak Forest Way	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,569 (+14%)	2mo	$600,000	$382	63
9895 Sheffield Way	0.33mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,569 (+14%)	4mo	$550,000	$351	53
9975 Tarzo Way	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,482 (+8%)	4mo	$580,000	$391	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $188,042
• Equity at exit: $472,962

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.38×
• Total profit: $643,964
• Equity at exit: $1,019,960

Cash invested: $147,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95757

• Home prices YoY: 13.5%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 297
• Price-to-rent: 15.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,768 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,753
• Tax from tax record: −$609 /mo · $7,305/yr
• Insurance: −$219
• HOA: −$214
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$581
• Net cashflow: $-1,608

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,803

Max offer price $241,017

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,310	-5% $-1,459	+0% $-1,608	+5% $-1,756	+10% $-1,905
Rent	-10% $-1,826	-5% $-1,717	+0% $-1,608	+5% $-1,498	+10% $-1,389
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,343	-0.5pp $-1,474	base $-1,608	+0.5pp $-1,744	+1.0pp $-1,882

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $131,250
• Closing costs: $15,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9932 Westminster Way Elk Grove, CA	2.0	2.0	1376	$2,695	$1.96	25d	1	0.32mi
7405 Rothschild Ct Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.0	1859	$2,650	$1.43	4d	1	0.39mi
7540 Abbey Cir Elk Grove, CA	2.0	2.0	1257	$2,700	$2.15	6d	1	0.41mi
7706 Brabham Way Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.0	1434	$2,995	$2.09	45d	1	0.67mi
8212 Shannon Oak Ln Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.5	1351	$2,600	$1.92	45d	1	0.74mi
9567 S Coast Ln Elk Grove, CA	2.0	2.5	1265	$2,300	$1.82	6d	1	0.77mi
9534 Sunlight Ln Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.0	1427	$2,650	$1.86	19d	1	0.83mi
10110 Elise Way Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.5	1628	$3,300	$2.03	9d	1	1.02mi
9428 Plainoak Way Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.0	1232	$2,745	$2.23	9d	1	1.09mi
8403 Sinesky Way Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.0	1579	$2,995	$1.90	12d	1	1.10mi
8120 Crystal Walk Cir Elk Grove, CA	2.0	2.0	1163	$2,195	$1.89	45d	1	1.15mi
7104 Saltgrass Way Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.0	1818	$2,750	$1.51	45d	1	1.16mi
7216 Tavira Ct Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.0	1513	$2,600	$1.72	45d	1	1.17mi
10371 Bruceville Rd Elk Grove, CA	2.0	3.0	1152	$2,700	$2.34	45d	1	1.28mi
10371 Bruceville Rd Elk Grove, CA	2.0	3.0	1152	$2,700	$2.34	19d	1	1.28mi
9316 Caulfield Dr Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.0	1550	$3,950	$2.55	45d	1	1.33mi
9320 Trenholm Dr Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.0	1231	$2,950	$2.40	3d	1	1.34mi
6609 Crestham Ct Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,600	$1.73	25d	1	1.35mi
8357 Eleodoro Way Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.5	1730	$3,245	$1.88	4d	1	1.46mi
6821 Springmont Dr Elk Grove, CA	2.0	2.0	1044	$2,395	$2.29	45d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $214 · $2,568/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $525,000 Active 138 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $525,000 Active 137 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,305 · $609/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,305 · $609/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 27 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,221
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,408
• − Property taxes: −$7,305
• − Insurance: −$2,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,658
• − Management: −$2,658
• − HOA: −$2,568
• − Depreciation: −$15,273
• Taxable loss: −$29,273
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,025
• After-tax cash flow: $-12,265/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elk Grove Unified
• NCES district ID: 0612330
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $67,860
• Composite: 40.72/100
• National rank: #3658
• State rank: #165 of 517 in CA

Livability — Elk Grove

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #212
• US rank: #6681

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elk Grove, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 190,119
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 56,764
• Household income: $138,198
• Rent vs Own: 26.5% rent · 73.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1121.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 40% White 21% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 14% Black 11% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Russian 1% Italian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 28% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 7% Chinese 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 39.15%
• Current HPI: 328.5885
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+12.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,305 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.