5509 W Rowel Rd · Phoenix, AZ 85083

$680,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,077 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 2006 9,597 sqft lot $221/sqft · at area comps Est $742k · 8% under $108/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 26% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.7/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is an amazing Bank/Corp owned value, and condition is tip-top for this category. All the bedrooms and laundry are upstairs. The master has a wonderful partitioned TV/ sitting room (w/privacy glass), and a doorway to the covered balcony - for those comfortable morning cups of coffee. The living room is huge and leads to both the back yard /water park, and the dining room / kitchen in the other area. Everything is designed for comfortable family living as well as entertaining on a grand scale. The former owner told me they spent $80,000 dollars on the pool/BBQ area, and with a bit of $ and a weekend or two, it will easily be returned to the dream water-park it was just a couple of months ago. All claims & measurements must verified by Buyer & Buyer's Agent.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Covered patio
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• ACCENT BACKSPLASH
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• COVERED PATIO
• FENCED BACKYARD
• IN GROUND POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association with quarterly fee of $325; Association fee covers grounds maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: 3 covered parking spaces; 3-car garage
• Security: Owned security system
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Painted exterior; Tile roof
• Exterior features: Private play pool; Desert front yard; Gravel/stone front yard; Gravel/stone backyard; Synthetic grass in front; Block fence

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Eat-in kitchen; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Up to 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Has heating; Has cooling; Cooling: Other
• Interior features: Double vanity; Eat-in kitchen; Breakfast bar; Pantry; Separate shower and tub; Fireplace; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $680k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-20k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $381k (44.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $322k (52.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $322k (52.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Deer Valley Unified District (4246) (urban): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #33 of 249 in AZ (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Inspiration Mountain School (486 students, 10% FRL); Sandra Day O'Connor High School (math 43% / reading 48%, grade D-, #58 of 381 statewide, top 15%, 2,567 students, 13% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 118 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $73k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $68k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$117k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($660k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $41k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $322,493 (52.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 53% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.47% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.68%
• DSCR: 0.52
• GRM: 17.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $742,039
• List price: $680,000
• Delta: -8.36%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26212 N 54th Ave	0.11mi	4/2.5	3,097 (+1%)	1mo	$630,000	$203	87
26216 N 56th Dr N	0.22mi	4/3.5	3,090 (+0%)	3mo	$865,000	$280	85
5508 W Parsons Rd	0.37mi	4/3.5	3,090 (+0%)	0mo	$815,000	$264	80
26606 N 57th Ave	0.29mi	4/3.5	3,090 (+0%)	5mo	$820,000	$265	80
5510 W Tether Trl	0.05mi	4/3.0	2,745 (-11%)	1mo	$566,000	$206	75
5026 W Parsons Rd	0.53mi	4/3.0	3,002 (-2%)	5mo	$770,000	$256	63
5022 W EL Cortez Trl	0.59mi	4/2.5	2,884 (-6%)	0mo	$775,000	$269	56
5111 W Cavedale Dr	0.55mi	4/3.0	3,422 (+11%)	1mo	$730,000	$213	51
27321 N 51st Gln	0.72mi	4/3.5	2,826 (-8%)	0mo	$699,990	$248	50
5208 W Straight Arrow Ln	0.71mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,153 (+2%)	5mo	$633,000	$201	50
5909 W Fetlock Trl	0.67mi	4/2.5	2,894 (-6%)	4mo	$861,850	$298	50
5148 W Quail Track Dr	0.63mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,780 (-10%)	2mo	$750,000	$270	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.37×
• Total profit: $259,916
• Equity at exit: $612,598

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.44×
• Total profit: $845,298
• Equity at exit: $1,321,090

Cash invested: $190,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85083

• Home prices YoY: 5.4%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 118
• Price-to-rent: 17.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,225 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,566
• Tax from tax record: −$285 /mo · $3,416/yr
• Insurance: −$283
• HOA: −$108
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$677
• Net cashflow: $-1,694

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,370

Max offer price $380,697

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $170,000
• Closing costs: $20,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5411 W Rowel Rd Phoenix, AZ	5.0	3.0	3422	$3,200	$0.94	5d	1	0.04mi
5433 W Red Bird Rd Phoenix, AZ	4.0	3.0	2745	$3,300	$1.20	24d	1	0.29mi
5235 W Blaylock Dr Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	2128	$2,850	$1.34	24d	1	0.32mi
27015 N 52nd Gln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	2314	$2,795	$1.21	18d	1	0.46mi
5118 W Molly Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	2128	$2,450	$1.15	7d	1	0.50mi
27105 N 52nd Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	2314	$2,499	$1.08	16d	1	0.52mi
5432 W Fetlock Trl Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.5	2103	$2,900	$1.38	12d	1	0.53mi
27424 N 54th Ln Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.5	2104	$2,885	$1.37	2d	1	0.59mi
5224 W Bent Tree Dr Phoenix, AZ	5.0	4.0	3638	$3,300	$0.91	18d	1	0.70mi
5826 W Plum Rd Phoenix, AZ	5.0	4.0	3987	$4,500	$1.13	43d	1	0.94mi
6017 W Running Deer Trl Phoenix, AZ	5.0	3.0	2563	$2,750	$1.07	2d	1	1.12mi
6326 W El Cortez Pl Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.5	2579	$3,450	$1.34	2d	1	1.16mi
25223 N 63rd Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	2113	$2,200	$1.04	43d	1	1.23mi
6506 W Molly Ln Phoenix, AZ	5.0	3.0	2876	$3,100	$1.08	5d	1	1.27mi
6539 W Jomax Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.0	2526	$2,495	$0.99	22d	1	1.33mi
6539 W Jomax Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.0	2526	$2,495	$0.99	24d	1	1.33mi
6539 W Jomax Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.0	2526	$2,495	$0.99	11d	1	1.33mi
6602 W Molly Ln Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.5	2793	$3,500	$1.25	24d	1	1.38mi
6425 W Desert Hollow Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	2295	$2,250	$0.98	5d	1	1.39mi
6434 W Hackamore Dr Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.5	3175	$3,400	$1.07	24d	1	1.44mi
6618 W Honeysuckle Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	2436	$2,200	$0.90	43d	1	1.44mi
4536 W Villa Linda Dr Glendale, AZ	4.0	2.5	2752	$3,500	$1.27	43d	1	1.44mi
6458 W Blue Sky Dr Phoenix, AZ	4.0	3.0	2230	$2,095	$0.94	15d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $108 · $1,296/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $680,000 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $680,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $680,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $680,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $680,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $680,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $699,000 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $699,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $699,000 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $699,000 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $699,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $699,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $699,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $699,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    listed $721,000 Active 575-char remark
16. 2026-04-29
    soldstatus $647,700
17. 2018-03-29
    soldstatus $375,000
18. 2010-03-03
    soldstatus $270,000 778-char remark

    Show marketing remark (778 chars)

    This is an amazing Bank/Corp owned value, and condition is tip-top for this category. All the bedrooms and laundry are upstairs. The master has a wonderful partitioned TV/ sitting room (w/privacy glass), and a doorway to the covered balcony - for those comfortable morning cups of coffee. The living room is huge and leads to both the back yard /water park, and the dining room / kitchen in the other area. Everything is designed for comfortable family living as well as entertaining on a grand scale. The former owner told me they spent $80,000 dollars on the pool/BBQ area, and with a bit of $ and a weekend or two, it will easily be returned to the dream water-park it was just a couple of months ago. All claims & measurements must verified by Buyer & Buyer's Agent.

19. 2010-02-04
    historical 778-char remark

    Show marketing remark (778 chars)

    This is an amazing Bank/Corp owned value, and condition is tip-top for this category. All the bedrooms and laundry are upstairs. The master has a wonderful partitioned TV/ sitting room (w/privacy glass), and a doorway to the covered balcony - for those comfortable morning cups of coffee. The living room is huge and leads to both the back yard /water park, and the dining room / kitchen in the other area. Everything is designed for comfortable family living as well as entertaining on a grand scale. The former owner told me they spent $80,000 dollars on the pool/BBQ area, and with a bit of $ and a weekend or two, it will easily be returned to the dream water-park it was just a couple of months ago. All claims & measurements must verified by Buyer & Buyer's Agent.

20. 2010-01-19
    listed $269,900 778-char remark

    Show marketing remark (778 chars)

    This is an amazing Bank/Corp owned value, and condition is tip-top for this category. All the bedrooms and laundry are upstairs. The master has a wonderful partitioned TV/ sitting room (w/privacy glass), and a doorway to the covered balcony - for those comfortable morning cups of coffee. The living room is huge and leads to both the back yard /water park, and the dining room / kitchen in the other area. Everything is designed for comfortable family living as well as entertaining on a grand scale. The former owner told me they spent $80,000 dollars on the pool/BBQ area, and with a bit of $ and a weekend or two, it will easily be returned to the dream water-park it was just a couple of months ago. All claims & measurements must verified by Buyer & Buyer's Agent.

21. 2005-12-07
    soldstatus $913,560

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,416 · $285/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,488 · $374/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,072/yr (+$89/mo · 31.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,699
• − Mortgage interest: −$38,091
• − Property taxes: −$3,416
• − Insurance: −$3,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,096
• − Management: −$3,096
• − HOA: −$1,296
• − Depreciation: −$19,782
• Taxable loss: −$33,477
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,034
• After-tax cash flow: $-12,297/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Deer Valley Unified District (4246)
• NCES district ID: 0407750
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $72,516
• Composite: 47.0/100
• National rank: #2346
• State rank: #33 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 21,022
• Household income: $149,087
• Rent vs Own: 10.5% rent · 89.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 81.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Asian 10% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Scandinavian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Other Indo-European 7% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.78%
• Current HPI: 289.2128
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.29%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-25.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $680,000 ARMLS
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $699,000 ARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $721,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Sold (Public Records) $647,700 Public Records
• 2018-03-29 Sold (Public Records) $375,000 Public Records
• 2010-03-03 Sold (MLS) $270,000 ARMLS
• 2010-02-04 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2010-01-19 Listed $269,900 ARMLS
• 2005-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $913,560 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,416 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.