2139 Duncan St · Louisville, KY 40212

$39,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily · 95 Days on market

Built 1900 3,484 sqft lot Est $45k · 11% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investors and property flippers take note! Priced to sell based on current condition. Please submit proof of funds with all offers

Key facts

• 3,484 sq ft lot
• Built 1900
• Listed 95 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: One story; Downtown subdivision
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Wood siding; Shingle roof; Other foundation; Built area approximately 864
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Public water

Interior

• Bedrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: 2 total rooms; No fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $523 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($997 rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $36k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#333 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, crime F.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Byck Elementary (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #662 of 676 statewide, top 99%, 287 students, 91% FRL); Westport Middle (math 16% / reading 38%, grade F, #172 of 217 statewide, top 80%, 1,177 students, 55% FRL); Western High (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #248 of 254 statewide, top 98%, 869 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 56% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 14% at this address vs 27% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Jefferson County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 140 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($276 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.5% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($36k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $13k; list at $40k implies a 207% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $36,309 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 56.15%
• DSCR: 3.50
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $44,928
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
331 N 23rd St	0.11mi	2/1.0	855 (-1%)	4mo	$105,000	$123	89
428 N 20th St	0.20mi	2/1.0	894 (+4%)	7mo	$46,000	$51	79
314 N 21st St	0.08mi	1/1.0 (-1)	791 (-8%)	1mo	$13,000	$16	76
216 N 25th St	0.32mi	2/1.0	840 (-3%)	6mo	$85,000	$101	76
2230 Congress St	0.37mi	1/1.0 (-1)	856 (-1%)	2mo	$38,500	$45	74
1707 Baird St	0.47mi	2/1.0	896 (+4%)	3mo	$45,000	$50	69
2214 Cedar St	0.51mi	2/1.0	886 (+2%)	4mo	$46,000	$52	69
1914 Lytle St	0.29mi	3/1.0 (+1)	930 (+8%)	1mo	$104,000	$112	68
212 N 20th St	0.16mi	2/1.0	987 (+14%)	7mo	$64,500	$65	63
2511 Bank St	0.45mi	2/1.0	960 (+11%)	6mo	$10,000	$10	56
363 N 27th St	0.57mi	2/1.0	972 (+12%)	6mo	$36,500	$38	48
2722 Slevin St	0.60mi	2/1.0	984 (+14%)	5mo	$65,000	$66	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 66.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.71×
• Total profit: $52,595
• Equity at exit: $35,945

10-year hold

• IRR: 59.6%
• Equity multiple: 12.12×
• Total profit: $124,260
• Equity at exit: $77,517

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40212

• Home prices YoY: 11.0%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 140
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $997 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $465/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$209
• Net cashflow: $523

Break-even live

Break-even rent $335

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 43%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
331 N 23rd St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	855	$1,150	$1.35	17d	1	0.12mi
2132 Rowan St Louisville, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	875	$928	$1.06	3d	4	0.15mi
322 N 24th St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	950	$1,100	$1.16	16d	1	0.23mi
214 N 24th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1012	$915	$0.90	23d	1	0.25mi
519 N 20th St Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	550	$795	$1.45	23d	1	0.28mi
2433 Slevin St Unit 2433-2 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	800	$875	$1.09	3d	1	0.30mi
200 N 18th St Unit 200-4 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	740	$775	$1.05	20d	1	0.33mi
212 N 25th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1104	$895	$0.81	23d	1	0.34mi
112 N 18th St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	944	$1,050	$1.11	23d	1	0.36mi
451 N 25th St Unit Mk Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	988	$875	$0.89	3d	1	0.38mi
220 Doctor W. J. Hodge St Unit 1 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	570	$700	$1.23	17d	1	0.38mi
500 N 17th St Unit 305 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	825	$1,100	$1.33	23d	1	0.40mi
500 N 17th St Apt 309 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	775	$1,200	$1.55	23d	1	0.40mi
500 N 17th St Unit 301 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	775	$1,200	$1.55	16d	1	0.40mi
214 N 17th St Unit 2 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	800	$750	$0.94	14d	1	0.41mi
1704 Rowan St Unit 1704-2 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	740	$850	$1.15	23d	1	0.42mi
2539 Bank St Unit 1 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	900	$750	$0.83	23d	1	0.49mi
1622 W Market St Apt 104 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.5	771	$965	$1.25	23d	1	0.56mi
353 N 27th St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	23d	1	0.56mi
1612 W Market St Unit 2 Louisville, KY	2.0	2.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	23d	1	0.58mi
2510 Portland Ave Unit 206 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	615	$950	$1.54	23d	1	0.58mi
2510 Portland Ave Unit 203 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	625	$995	$1.59	3d	1	0.59mi
2717 Slevin St Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	620	$725	$1.17	16d	1	0.60mi
2614 W Jefferson St Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	633	$695	$1.10	20d	1	0.64mi
2614 W Jefferson St Unit 2614-4 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	740	$795	$1.07	23d	1	0.64mi
515 S 20th St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	1000	$995	$0.99	16d	1	0.66mi
2506 Montgomery St Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1081	$1,295	$1.20	3d	4	0.66mi
2221 W Madison St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	23d	1	0.67mi
2221 W Madison St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	21d	1	0.67mi
2623 Cedar St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	23d	1	0.69mi
2718 W Jefferson St Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	633	$699	$1.10	21d	1	0.70mi
2718 W Jefferson St Unit 2718-3 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	633	$699	$1.10	23d	1	0.70mi
2300 W Madison St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	900	$850	$0.94	23d	1	0.71mi
2925 Slevin St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	896	$775	$0.86	3d	1	0.80mi
522 N 29th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1031	$1,300	$1.26	3d	1	0.82mi
2927 Rowan St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,205	$1.20	11d	1	0.82mi
2631 W Madison St Unit 1 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	928	$950	$1.02	23d	1	0.83mi
2631 W Madison St Unit 2 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	928	$850	$0.92	23d	1	0.83mi
2631 W Madison St Unit 2 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	928	$850	$0.92	17d	1	0.83mi
2411 Elliott Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	892	$895	$1.00	23d	1	0.94mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,900 Active 95 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,900 Active 94 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,900 Active 93 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,900 Active 92 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,900 Active 90 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $39,900 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,900 Active 86 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,900 Active 85 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $39,900 Active 84 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $44,500 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $44,500 Active 79 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $44,500 Active 78 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $44,500 Active 77 DOM
14. 2026-05-12
    price $44,500
15. 2026-03-02
    listed $47,500 Active
16. 2024-01-29
    soldstatus $13,000 Closed 130-char remark

    Show marketing remark (130 chars)

    Investors and property flippers take note! Priced to sell based on current condition. Please submit proof of funds with all offers

17. 2024-01-18
    status Pending 130-char remark

    Show marketing remark (130 chars)

    Investors and property flippers take note! Priced to sell based on current condition. Please submit proof of funds with all offers

18. 2024-01-13
    price $13,500 130-char remark

    Show marketing remark (130 chars)

    Investors and property flippers take note! Priced to sell based on current condition. Please submit proof of funds with all offers

19. 2024-01-12
    listed $13,000 Active 130-char remark

    Show marketing remark (130 chars)

    Investors and property flippers take note! Priced to sell based on current condition. Please submit proof of funds with all offers

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $465 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $465 · $39/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,959
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$465
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$957
• − Management: −$957
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $5,986
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,437
• After-tax cash flow: $4,836/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #333
• US rank: #15887

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville, KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 769,292
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 14,661
• Household income: $35,753
• Rent vs Own: 51.3% rent · 48.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1148.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% White 37% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.02%
• Current HPI: 293.2624
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.51%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+242.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $44,500 ImagineMLS
• 2026-03-02 Listed $47,500 ImagineMLS
• 2024-01-29 Sold (MLS) $13,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2024-01-18 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2024-01-13 Price Changed $13,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2024-01-12 Listed $13,000 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+16.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $465 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.