1291 E Hickok Rd · Trapper Creek, AK 99683

$75,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 846 sqft · SingleFamily · 252 Days on market

Built 1919 Poor condition 0.93 ac lot $89/sqft · 30% below area Est $108k · 30% under ↓ 16% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This cozy cabin, nestled in one of Alaska's hidden gem towns, offers the rare combination of traditional home features at an affordable price. Built in 1919, the Tolovankorga cabin was originally used by Alaska Road crews during the construction of Petersville Road, adding a unique historical touch to its character. With endless miles of trails, it's a snow-machiner's dream. Inside, warm wood tones create a welcoming, rustic atmosphere, and a deep soaker tub offers comfort after a day of adventure. Washer and dryer hookups add everyday convenience. Outside, two sheds are ideal for storing firewood, gear, or other supplies. Trapper Creek sits at the doorstep of Denali State Park, offering access to a vast network of lakes (pike fishing), creeks and rivers (salmon and trout fly-fishing), scenic hiking trails, and endless snowmachining adventure routes. The property is just a few miles from gas stations, grocery and convenience stores, and other essential services. The well is not currently hooked up at the property. It is there but will need some plumbing work. The property is also located outside the flood zone.

Key facts

• Access to lakes
• Access to creeks
• Deep soaker tub

Tags

• UNIQUE HISTORICAL TOUCH
• DEEP SOAKER TUB
• WASHER AND DRYER HOOKUPS
• TWO SHEDS
• ACCESS TO LAKES
• ACCESS TO CREEKS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $194 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($902 rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#193 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 46 active listings in the ZIP; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 252 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1919 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $66,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 252 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1919 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.10%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $107,888
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: -30.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $21,418
• Equity at exit: $33,723

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.81×
• Total profit: $58,940
• Equity at exit: $51,972

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99683

• Active inventory: 46
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $902 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,125/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$189
• Net cashflow: $194

Break-even live

Break-even rent $656

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $246	-5% $220	+0% $194	+5% $168	+10% $142
Rent	-10% $123	-5% $159	+0% $194	+5% $230	+10% $265
Rate	-1.0pp $232	-0.5pp $213	base $194	+0.5pp $175	+1.0pp $155

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 252 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 251 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 250 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 249 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,000 Active 247 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 246 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $75,000 Active 244 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 243 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 242 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 241 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 237 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 236 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 235 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 234 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $75,000 Active 233 DOM
16. 2026-02-26
    price $75,000 1128-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1128 chars)

    This cozy cabin, nestled in one of Alaska's hidden gem towns, offers the rare combination of traditional home features at an affordable price. Built in 1919, the Tolovankorga cabin was originally used by Alaska Road crews during the construction of Petersville Road, adding a unique historical touch to its character. With endless miles of trails, it's a snow-machiner's dream. Inside, warm wood tones create a welcoming, rustic atmosphere, and a deep soaker tub offers comfort after a day of adventure. Washer and dryer hookups add everyday convenience. Outside, two sheds are ideal for storing firewood, gear, or other supplies. Trapper Creek sits at the doorstep of Denali State Park, offering access to a vast network of lakes (pike fishing), creeks and rivers (salmon and trout fly-fishing), scenic hiking trails, and endless snowmachining adventure routes. The property is just a few miles from gas stations, grocery and convenience stores, and other essential services. The well is not currently hooked up at the property. It is there but will need some plumbing work. The property is also located outside the flood zone.

17. 2025-10-09
    listed $88,500 Active 1128-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1128 chars)

    This cozy cabin, nestled in one of Alaska's hidden gem towns, offers the rare combination of traditional home features at an affordable price. Built in 1919, the Tolovankorga cabin was originally used by Alaska Road crews during the construction of Petersville Road, adding a unique historical touch to its character. With endless miles of trails, it's a snow-machiner's dream. Inside, warm wood tones create a welcoming, rustic atmosphere, and a deep soaker tub offers comfort after a day of adventure. Washer and dryer hookups add everyday convenience. Outside, two sheds are ideal for storing firewood, gear, or other supplies. Trapper Creek sits at the doorstep of Denali State Park, offering access to a vast network of lakes (pike fishing), creeks and rivers (salmon and trout fly-fishing), scenic hiking trails, and endless snowmachining adventure routes. The property is just a few miles from gas stations, grocery and convenience stores, and other essential services. The well is not currently hooked up at the property. It is there but will need some plumbing work. The property is also located outside the flood zone.

18. 2021-10-14
    status Pending
19. 2021-09-18
    price $65,000
20. 2021-08-31
    listed $75,000 Active
21. 2019-03-06
    listed $79,000
22. 2018-05-03
    listed $89,000
23. 2016-05-18
    listed $105,000
24. 2012-11-17
    listed $55,000
25. 2011-10-28
    listed $89,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,823
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,125
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$866
• − Management: −$866
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $1,208
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$290
• After-tax cash flow: $2,040/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and renovations to improve its condition and value. Immediate attention is needed to address the roof, exterior, and interior issues to make it move-in ready.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Exposed rafters and missing shingles
• Major exterior siding — Weathered and peeling
• Major flooring — Worn-out carpet and exposed subfloor
• Major interior walls — Peeling paint and exposed insulation
• Major kitchen appliances — Old and outdated appliances
• Major bathroom fixtures — Old and outdated fixtures
• Major landscaping — Overgrown vegetation and debris
• Major shed — Structural damage

Value-add opportunities

• Both New roof and siding — Improves both resale and rental value
• Both New flooring and interior walls — Enhances both resale and rental value
• Both Modern kitchen appliances — Improves both resale and rental value
• Both Modern bathroom fixtures — Improves both resale and rental value
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Exposed rafters and missing shingles	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · Weathered and peeling	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Worn-out carpet and exposed subfloor	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · Peeling paint and exposed insulation	Major	$15,000–50,000
kitchen appliances · Old and outdated appliances	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom fixtures · Old and outdated fixtures	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Overgrown vegetation and debris	Major	$15,000–50,000
shed · Structural damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 8 items		$120,000–400,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both New roof and siding — Improves both resale and rental value ↑
• Both New flooring and interior walls — Enhances both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Modern kitchen appliances — Improves both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Modern bathroom fixtures — Improves both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,325
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3484
• State rank: #5 of 21 in AK

Livability — Trapper Creek

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #193
• US rank: #24848

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Trapper Creek, AK
• City population: 584
• Population (ZIP): 584

Population outlook (Matanuska-Susitna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 126,730 people
• By 2030: 139,641 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 165,122 · +30.3%
• By 2050: 189,697 · +49.7%
• By 2075: 249,959 · +97.2%
• By 2100: 288,077 · +127.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 8% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 8% Slovak 6% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4%
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Matanuska-Susitna

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-15.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $75,000 AKMLS
• 2025-10-09 Listed $88,500 AKMLS
• 2021-10-14 Pending — AKMLS
• 2021-09-18 Price Changed $65,000 AKMLS
• 2021-08-31 Listed $75,000 AKMLS
• 2019-03-06 Listed $79,000 AKMLS
• 2018-05-03 Listed $89,000 AKMLS
• 2016-05-18 Listed $105,000 AKMLS
• 2012-11-17 Listed $55,000 AKMLS
• 2011-10-28 Listed $89,000 AKMLS