Serenade Plan · Mesquite, TX 75181

$349,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,861 sqft · SingleFamily · 198 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new single-story home features a smart layout that is perfect for growing families. There are four bedrooms, including the owner's suite with a private bathroom and walk-in closet. The open-concept main living area includes a modern kitchen, dining room and family room. A covered patio is the ideal spot for sunrise coffee and starlight suppers.

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Modern kitchen
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT MAIN LIVING AREA
• MODERN KITCHEN
• COVERED PATIO

🏗️ New construction. The $349,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $417,650.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-648 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $324k (7.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $283k (19.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $283k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#358 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• Mesquite ISD (suburban): math 35% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #536 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Gentry El (math 34% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 637 students, 79% FRL); Berry Middle (math 45% / reading 41%, grade D-, #540 of 1,662 statewide, top 33%, 579 students, 76% FRL); Horn H S (math 41% / reading 36%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 3,029 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 598 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($111k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 198 days — a 12% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $283,374 (19.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 198 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.65%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $417,650
• List price: $349,999
• Delta: -16.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2105 Jade Forest Ln	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,821 (-2%)	6mo	$409,990	$225	68
1901 Kit Fox Run	0.48mi	4/3.0	1,945 (+4%)	2mo	$360,000	$185	65
1913 Hazel Lily	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,736 (-7%)	4mo	$397,620	$229	64
2001 Hazel Lily	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,752 (-6%)	9mo	$432,650	$247	61
2021 Jade Frst	0.37mi	4/3.0	2,001 (+8%)	7mo	$399,999	$200	60
2105 Hazel Lily Run	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,736 (-7%)	9mo	$389,715	$224	58
2404 Tarrango Trl	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,898 (+2%)	1mo	$364,990	$192	57
1821 Osage	0.74mi	4/2.0	1,915 (+3%)	7mo	$362,662	$189	55
2021 Cantura Dr	0.68mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,815 (-2%)	3mo	$294,900	$162	53
2417 Johnson Dr	0.69mi	4/2.0	1,982 (+6%)	7mo	$349,900	$177	52
1833 Cedarbriar Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,011 (+8%)	6mo	$305,000	$152	48
2017 Paradise Valley Dr	0.74mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,699 (-9%)	1mo	$339,834	$200	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.00×
• Total profit: $-116,999
• Equity at exit: $62,273

10-year hold

• IRR: -53.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.59×
• Total profit: $-186,230
• Equity at exit: $36,111

Cash invested: $116,942 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75181

• Home prices YoY: -9.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 598
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,834 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,190
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$522 /mo · $6,265/yr
• Insurance: −$174
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$595
• Net cashflow: $-648

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,654

Max offer price $323,937

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-359	-5% $-503	+0% $-648	+5% $-792	+10% $-936
Rent	-10% $-871	-5% $-760	+0% $-648	+5% $-536	+10% $-424
Rate	-1.0pp $-437	-0.5pp $-541	base $-648	+0.5pp $-756	+1.0pp $-866

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,412
• Closing costs: $12,529
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2004 Poppy Way Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1572	$2,700	$1.72	45d	1	0.32mi
2201 Cantura Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2432	$2,700	$1.11	0d	1	0.59mi
1817 Cedarbriar Dr Mesquite, TX	5.0	3.5	2538	$3,495	$1.38	45d	1	0.61mi
2439 Whitetail Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	2484	$2,800	$1.13	26d	1	0.72mi
1809 Osage Trl Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2022	$2,599	$1.29	19d	1	0.77mi
2600 Waterloo Ln Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,900	$1.30	45d	1	0.82mi
1729 Hazer Ln Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$2,400	$1.60	22d	1	0.83mi
732 Creekview Ct Mesquite, TX	5.0	3.0	2313	$3,495	$1.51	45d	1	0.91mi
815 Valleycreek Rd Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1788	$2,500	$1.40	45d	1	1.02mi
1332 Nimitz Way Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2109	$2,280	$1.08	22d	1	1.02mi
1309 Dawson Way Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1952	$2,222	$1.14	9d	1	1.05mi
1308 Dawson Way Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	2476	$3,573	$1.44	26d	1	1.08mi
2749 Ingram Cir Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1791	$2,119	$1.18	4d	1	1.24mi
2637 Austin Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	2291	$3,350	$1.46	45d	1	1.28mi
2621 Ash Crk Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1843	$2,299	$1.25	45d	1	1.30mi
2302 Highbank Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1783	$2,145	$1.20	45d	1	1.33mi
716 Elm Falls Pl Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	2444	$2,300	$0.94	22d	1	1.35mi
1104 Ashland Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	1.0	1250	$1,625	$1.30	9d	1	1.35mi
1626 Rancho Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2562	$2,419	$0.94	26d	1	1.38mi
2725 Stillwater Dr Mesquite, TX	5.0	2.5	2228	$3,199	$1.44	0d	1	1.41mi
2524 Park Valley Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$2,150	$1.58	0d	1	1.41mi
2829 Kerrville Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	2349	$2,700	$1.15	6d	1	1.41mi
2805 Cameron Way Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1660	$2,150	$1.30	14d	1	1.43mi
2724 Windswept Ln Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$2,300	$1.64	26d	1	1.44mi
2213 Creek Royal Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1505	$1,850	$1.23	45d	1	1.45mi
2213 Creek Royal Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1505	$1,850	$1.23	23d	1	1.45mi
1217 Buckeye Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1735	$1,995	$1.15	23d	1	1.46mi
1217 Buckeye Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1735	$1,995	$1.15	45d	1	1.46mi
2812 Clearmeadow Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1837	$2,800	$1.52	0d	1	1.48mi
2314 Stillwater Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1995	$2,600	$1.30	0d	1	1.48mi
2314 Stillwater Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1995	$2,600	$1.30	26d	1	1.48mi
2208 Browning Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$1,955	$1.39	45d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $349,999 Active 198 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $349,999 Active 195 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $349,999 Active 194 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $349,999 Active 193 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $349,999 Active 192 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $349,999 Active 190 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $349,999 Active 189 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $349,999 Active 186 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $349,999 Active 185 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $349,999 Active 184 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $349,999 Active 181 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $349,999 Active 180 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $349,999 Active 179 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $349,999 Active 178 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $349,999 Active 177 DOM
16. 2025-12-05
    listed $349,999 Active 351-char remark

    Show marketing remark (351 chars)

    This new single-story home features a smart layout that is perfect for growing families. There are four bedrooms, including the owner's suite with a private bathroom and walk-in closet. The open-concept main living area includes a modern kitchen, dining room and family room. A covered patio is the ideal spot for sunrise coffee and starlight suppers.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,005
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,395
• − Property taxes: −$6,265
• − Insurance: −$2,088
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,720
• − Management: −$2,720
• − Depreciation: −$12,150
• Taxable loss: −$15,334
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,680
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,091/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mesquite ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830390
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $49,372
• Composite: 29.06/100
• National rank: #6606
• State rank: #536 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mesquite

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #358
• US rank: #7743

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mesquite, TX
• County: Dallas County · 2,612,404 people
• City population: 150,788
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,788
• Household income: $111,052
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 857.0

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 39% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 21% White 16% Asian 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 27% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.63%
• Current HPI: 257.0959
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.07%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-05 Listed $349,999 Zillow