Serenade Plan · Mesquite, TX 75181

$349,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,861 sqft · SingleFamily · 246 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new single-story home features a smart layout that is perfect for growing families. There are four bedrooms, including the owner's suite with a private bathroom and walk-in closet. The open-concept main living area includes a modern kitchen, dining room and family room. A covered patio is the ideal spot for sunrise coffee and starlight suppers.

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Modern kitchen
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT MAIN LIVING AREA
• MODERN KITCHEN
• COVERED PATIO

🏗️ New construction. The $349,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $417,767.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $350k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-606 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $330k (5.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $289k (17.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $289k (17.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#358 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• Mesquite ISD (suburban): math 35% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #536 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Gentry El (math 34% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 637 students, 79% FRL); Berry Middle (math 45% / reading 41%, grade D-, #540 of 1,662 statewide, top 33%, 579 students, 76% FRL); Horn H S (math 41% / reading 36%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 3,029 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 683 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 38d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($111k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 246 days — a 12% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $288,763 (17.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 246 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.22%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $417,767
• List price: $349,999
• Delta: -16.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2213 Hazel Lily Run	0.38mi	4/2.0	1,713 (-8%)	1mo	$383,000	$224	68
2105 Jade Forest Ln	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,821 (-2%)	7mo	$409,990	$225	67
1901 Kit Fox Run	0.48mi	4/3.0	1,945 (+4%)	3mo	$360,000	$185	63
1913 Hazel Lily	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,736 (-7%)	6mo	$397,620	$229	63
2021 Jade Frst	0.37mi	4/3.0	2,001 (+8%)	8mo	$399,999	$200	59
2105 Hazel Lily Run	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,736 (-7%)	10mo	$389,715	$224	57
2404 Tarrango Trl	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,898 (+2%)	3mo	$364,990	$192	56
1821 Osage	0.74mi	4/2.0	1,915 (+3%)	8mo	$362,662	$189	54
2021 Cantura Dr	0.68mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,815 (-2%)	4mo	$294,900	$162	52
2417 Johnson Dr	0.69mi	4/2.0	1,982 (+6%)	8mo	$349,900	$177	50
1833 Cedarbriar Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,011 (+8%)	8mo	$305,000	$152	46
2017 Paradise Valley Dr	0.74mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,699 (-9%)	3mo	$339,834	$200	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-114,511
• Equity at exit: $62,290

10-year hold

• IRR: -51.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.55×
• Total profit: $-181,233
• Equity at exit: $36,121

Cash invested: $116,975 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 128 active · 23 under contract
• Months of supply: 22.6 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $359,999 ($186/sqft)
• Median days on market: 136 d
• This list price: 39% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +20.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75181

• Home prices YoY: -9.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 683
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,888 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,191
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$522 /mo · $6,267/yr
• Insurance: −$174
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$606
• Net cashflow: $-606

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,655

Max offer price $330,097

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-317	-5% $-462	+0% $-606	+5% $-750	+10% $-895
Rent	-10% $-834	-5% $-720	+0% $-606	+5% $-492	+10% $-378
Rate	-1.0pp $-395	-0.5pp $-500	base $-606	+0.5pp $-714	+1.0pp $-824

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,442
• Closing costs: $12,533
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1908 Twisted Tree Ln Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	2558	$3,195	$1.25	7d	1	0.27mi
2004 Poppy Way Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1572	$2,700	$1.72	93d	1	0.32mi
2201 Cantura Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2432	$2,700	$1.11	48d	1	0.59mi
1817 Cedarbriar Dr Mesquite, TX	5.0	3.5	2538	$3,495	$1.38	93d	1	0.61mi
2324 Cantura Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2190	$2,500	$1.14	34d	1	0.67mi
2508 Hawk Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1771	$2,525	$1.43	0d	1	0.70mi
2439 Whitetail Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	2484	$2,800	$1.13	73d	1	0.72mi
1809 Osage Trl Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2022	$2,599	$1.29	66d	1	0.77mi
2600 Waterloo Ln Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,900	$1.30	93d	1	0.82mi
1729 Hazer Ln Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$2,400	$1.60	70d	1	0.83mi
732 Creekview Ct Mesquite, TX	5.0	3.0	2313	$3,495	$1.51	93d	1	0.91mi
808 Creekside Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1886	$2,200	$1.17	3d	1	0.96mi
2008 Cheshire Ct Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	2003	$3,675	$1.83	38d	1	0.99mi
815 Valleycreek Rd Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1788	$2,500	$1.40	93d	1	1.02mi
1332 Nimitz Way Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2109	$2,230	$1.06	13d	1	1.02mi
1309 Dawson Way Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1952	$2,222	$1.14	57d	1	1.05mi
1309 Dawson Way Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1952	$2,222	$1.14	3d	1	1.05mi
1320 Junction Run Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1791	$2,395	$1.34	21d	1	1.06mi
1320 Junction Run Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1791	$2,450	$1.37	38d	1	1.06mi
1308 Dawson Way Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	2476	$3,573	$1.44	73d	1	1.08mi
1427 Caladium Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1471	$2,175	$1.48	9d	1	1.11mi
706 Valleycreek Rd Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1390	$2,225	$1.60	3d	1	1.13mi
1349 Rutherford Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1968	$2,095	$1.06	25d	1	1.14mi
1608 Willow Crk Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1934	$2,323	$1.20	7d	1	1.16mi
1045 Cavern Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1659	$2,195	$1.32	18d	1	1.21mi
2521 Ash Crk Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1512	$2,850	$1.88	0d	1	1.22mi
2749 Ingram Cir Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1791	$1,899	$1.06	25d	1	1.24mi
1229 Nimitz Way Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2075	$2,300	$1.11	37d	1	1.25mi
824 Elm Falls Pl Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.5	2141	$1,950	$0.91	3d	1	1.26mi
2637 Austin Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	2291	$3,350	$1.46	93d	1	1.28mi
2621 Ash Crk Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1843	$2,299	$1.25	93d	1	1.30mi
2302 Highbank Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1783	$2,145	$1.20	93d	1	1.33mi
716 Elm Falls Pl Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	2444	$2,300	$0.94	70d	1	1.35mi
716 Elm Falls Pl Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	2444	$2,300	$0.94	43d	1	1.35mi
1104 Ashland Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	1.0	1250	$1,595	$1.28	43d	1	1.35mi
2338 Liles Ln Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2344	$2,400	$1.02	7d	1	1.37mi
1626 Rancho Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2562	$2,419	$0.94	73d	1	1.38mi
2404 Liles Ln Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2323	$3,999	$1.72	1d	1	1.39mi
2725 Stillwater Dr Mesquite, TX	5.0	2.5	2228	$3,199	$1.44	12d	1	1.41mi
2524 Park Valley Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$2,020	$1.49	32d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $349,999 Active 246 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $349,999 Active 244 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $349,999 Active 243 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $349,999 Active 242 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $349,999 Active 241 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $349,999 Active 238 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $349,999 Active 237 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $349,999 Active 236 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $349,999 Active 235 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $349,999 Active 233 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $349,999 Active 231 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $349,999 Active 230 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $349,999 Active 229 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $349,999 Active 227 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $349,999 Active 225 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $349,999 Active 224 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $349,999 Active 223 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $349,999 Active 222 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $349,999 Active 221 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $349,999 Active 220 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $349,999 Active 219 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $349,999 Active 218 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $349,999 Active 217 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $349,999 Active 216 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $349,999 Active 214 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $349,999 Active 213 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $349,999 Active 212 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $349,999 Active 211 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $349,999 Active 210 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $349,999 Active 209 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $349,999 Active 208 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $349,999 Active 207 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $349,999 Active 206 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $349,999 Active 205 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $349,999 Active 203 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $349,999 Active 201 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $349,999 Active 199 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $349,999 Active 198 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $349,999 Active 195 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $349,999 Active 194 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $349,999 Active 193 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $349,999 Active 192 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $349,999 Active 190 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $349,999 Active 189 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $349,999 Active 186 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $349,999 Active 185 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $349,999 Active 184 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $349,999 Active 181 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $349,999 Active 180 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $349,999 Active 179 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,652
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,401
• − Property taxes: −$6,267
• − Insurance: −$2,089
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,772
• − Management: −$2,772
• − Depreciation: −$12,153
• Taxable loss: −$14,803
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,553
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,718/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-story home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a smart layout and is move-in ready, making it an attractive option for both buyers and renters.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping and flower beds — Well-maintained landscaping improves curb appeal and adds value. ↑
• Both Deep cleaning throughout — A thorough clean enhances the home's appearance and can attract more buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 40/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Gentry El F TX #1,769/4,322 Nat'l #21,438/41,679 Middle Berry Middle D- TX #540/1,662 Nat'l #5,160/14,009 High Horn H S F TX #866/1,632 Nat'l #8,796/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mesquite ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830390
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $49,372
• Composite: 29.06/100
• National rank: #6606
• State rank: #536 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Mesquite

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #358
• US rank: #7743

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mesquite, TX
• County: Dallas County · 2,979,839 people
• City population: 150,788
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,788
• Household income: $111,052
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 29% of renters

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Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 39% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 21% White 16% Asian 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 27% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.63%
• Current HPI: 257.0959
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.07%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-05 Listed $349,999 Zillow