11612 Violet Jasper Dr · Ruskin, FL 34219

$357,890

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,141 sqft · SingleFamily · 10 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $167/sqft · 23% below area Est $465k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This spacious single-story home features both a storage space and multipurpose flex space for comfortable living. The stylish kitchen, family room and dining room cohesively flow into a serene patio for indoor-outdoor entertaining. The expansive owner's suite with a spa-like private bathroom overlooks two additional bedrooms ideal for overnight guests.

Key facts

• Serene patio
• Storage space
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• STORAGE SPACE
• MULTIPURPOSE FLEX SPACE
• SERENE PATIO
• SPA-LIKE PRIVATE BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $358k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-236 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $324k (9.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $283k (20.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $283k (20.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.2% in Ruskin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Virgil Mills Elementary School (math 69% / reading 65%, grade B+, #450 of 2,144 statewide, top 22%, 818 students, 43% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2991 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 82d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $283,244 (20.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.82%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $465,152
• List price: $357,890
• Delta: -23.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12330 Precious Ruby Way	0.19mi	3/2.5	2,145 (+0%)	9mo	$382,415	$178	83
11825 Sparkling Topaz Cv	0.19mi	3/2.5	2,145 (+0%)	14mo	$373,415	$174	79
11562 Violet Jasper Dr	0.00mi	3/3.0	2,366 (+10%)	4mo	$368,000	$156	77
11948 Violet Jasper Dr	0.36mi	2/2.5 (-1)	2,216 (+4%)	2mo	$379,500	$171	70
11829 Lilac Pearl Ln	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,956 (-9%)	0mo	$369,500	$189	70
12035 Violet Jasper Dr	0.20mi	3/2.5	2,350 (+10%)	5mo	$405,900	$173	70
11973 Violet Jasper Dr	0.29mi	3/2.5	2,350 (+10%)	3mo	$413,890	$176	68
11933 Violet Jasper Dr	0.36mi	3/2.5	2,350 (+10%)	0mo	$409,490	$174	67
12010 Violet Jasper Dr	0.28mi	3/2.5	2,350 (+10%)	5mo	$510,390	$217	66
11715 Lilac Pearl Ln	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,959 (-8%)	12mo	$365,000	$186	64
11837 Sparkling Topaz Cv	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,959 (-8%)	13mo	$324,665	$166	60
11804 Sparkling Topaz Cv	0.24mi	3/3.0	2,366 (+10%)	13mo	$360,000	$152	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-81,262
• Equity at exit: $53,363

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.22×
• Total profit: $-121,994
• Equity at exit: $30,944

Cash invested: $100,209 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 56 active · 14 under contract
• Months of supply: 14.0 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $390,545 ($176/sqft)
• Median days on market: 42 d
• This list price: 32% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +23.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2991
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,832 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,877
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$447 /mo · $5,368/yr
• Insurance: −$149
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$595
• Net cashflow: $-236

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,131

Max offer price $323,788

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $12	-5% $-112	+0% $-236	+5% $-359	+10% $-483
Rent	-10% $-459	-5% $-348	+0% $-236	+5% $-124	+10% $-12
Rate	-1.0pp $-55	-0.5pp $-145	base $-236	+0.5pp $-328	+1.0pp $-423

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,472
• Closing costs: $10,737
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11937 Kingsley Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$2,700	$1.32	74d	1	0.84mi
11007 Tamarack Pl Unit NA Duette, FL	4.0	3.0	2537	$3,000	$1.18	107d	1	0.90mi
11007 Tamarack Pl Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	2537	$3,000	$1.18	65d	1	0.90mi
12067 Kingsley Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$2,495	$1.22	99d	1	1.04mi
12140 Kingsley Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,266	$1.24	9d	1	1.08mi
12415 Nantahala Run Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$2,700	$1.32	5d	1	1.11mi
12456 Nantahala Run Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$2,699	$1.32	93d	1	1.20mi
12215 Radiant Gem Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2584	$3,000	$1.16	112d	1	1.25mi
11824 Blue Diamond Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	2576	$2,995	$1.16	9d	1	1.25mi
10826 Sapphire Breeze Cv Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,500	$1.35	99d	1	1.27mi
10225 Kalamazoo Pl Unit NA Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$2,689	$1.19	106d	1	1.29mi
10225 Kalamazoo Pl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$2,789	$1.23	99d	1	1.29mi
10650 Hidden Banks Gln Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,200	$1.46	5d	1	1.35mi
12432 Dora Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2044	$3,000	$1.47	63d	1	1.36mi
10646 Hidden Banks Gln Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,350	$1.56	112d	1	1.37mi
10642 Chippewa Dr Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	2435	$2,550	$1.05	9d	1	1.37mi
9928 Wimico Ter Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,400	$1.60	93d	1	1.44mi
10116 Charlotte Dr Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2308	$3,050	$1.32	82d	1	1.45mi
9911 Wimico Ter Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,400	$1.60	9d	1	1.45mi
10048 Big Marsh Ter Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	2034	$2,825	$1.39	119d	1	1.46mi
12805 Crystal Jade Way Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2162	$2,600	$1.20	78d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $357,890 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $357,890 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $350,890 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $350,890 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $350,890 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $348,890 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $348,890 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   price $348,890 Active 1 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   remarks 354-char remark
10. 2026-06-08
    listed $343,790 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,989
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,047
• − Property taxes: −$5,368
• − Insurance: −$1,789
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,719
• − Management: −$2,719
• − Depreciation: −$10,411
• Taxable loss: −$9,066
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,176
• After-tax cash flow: $-652/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $10,705–$32,115 screening

This single-story home features a spacious layout with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It is ready for immediate occupancy and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint to enhance its curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental trim landscaping — improves curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 50/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Virgil Mills Elementary School B+ FL #450/2,144 Nat'l #4,366/41,679 Middle Buffalo Creek Middle School B- FL #180/571 Nat'l #2,482/14,009 High Palmetto High School F FL #456/667 Nat'l #11,621/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 71/100

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 447,342 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B