747 E Germann Rd #54 · San Tan Valley, AZ 85140

$99,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Manufactured · 158 Days on market

Built 2005 Est $83k · 20% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-Bath Home in the 55+ community of Pleasant Valley offering low-maintenance living with desirable community amenities. This beautiful fully furnished corner lot home, with newer metal roof, offers plenty of outdoor living space along with enough parking for all your guests. The kitchen includes a breakfast bar, ample cabinetry, and included appliances, seamlessly connecting to the main living area. The primary bathroom was recently added on and features a convenient step-in shower, while outdoor storage adds extra practicality. Residents enjoy gated access, a clubhouse and rec room, and a heated community spa. Conveniently located near shopping, d

Key facts

• Outdoor storage
• Gated access
• Newer metal roof

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• NEWER METAL ROOF
• BREAKFAST BAR
• STEP-IN SHOWER
• OUTDOOR STORAGE
• GATED ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Building area reported by owner; Directions: From E Germann Rd & N Ironwood Rd, head east on E Germann Rd, turn right into the Pleasant Valley entrance, then follow the drive to Space 54.
• HOA & community: Land lease community with monthly land lease of $740; Association maintenance covers grounds

Exterior

• Parking: 2 open parking spaces; 1 covered space; 1 carport space
• Utilities: City water; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Aluminum siding and wood frame construction; Painted exterior; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Gravel/stone front and back; Pool in community; Community spa (heated); Gated community

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Eat-in kitchen; Breakfast bar; Vaulted ceilings; Master bedroom with 3/4 bath
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $737 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.2% vs local median 3.2% in San Tan Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#282 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• J O Combs Unified School District (4445) (rural): math 27% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #109 of 249 in AZ (top 44%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jack Harmon Elementary School (math 24% / reading 32%, grade F, #586 of 1,109 statewide, top 53%, 425 students, 56% FRL); Combs Center For Success Middle School (1 students, 0% FRL); Combs High School (math 25% / reading 31%, grade F, #136 of 381 statewide, top 36%, 1,356 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools at 31% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 823 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $87,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.81% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.64%
• DSCR: 2.41
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $83,160
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
747 E Germann Rd #109	0.00mi	2/1.5	960 (-11%)	1mo	$55,000	$57	79
747 E Germann Rd #9	0.00mi	2/2.0	960 (-11%)	5mo	$85,000	$89	78
747 E Germann Rd #5	0.00mi	2/2.0	960 (-11%)	9mo	$70,000	$73	74
437 E Germann Rd #118	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,232 (+14%)	22mo	$95,000	$77	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.7% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $28,473
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.72×
• Total profit: $76,054
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85140

• Home prices YoY: -33.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 823
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,807 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,498/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $737

Break-even live

Break-even rent $874

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 158 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 157 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 156 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 155 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 153 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 152 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 149 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 148 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,900 Active 147 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $99,900 Active 144 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,900 Active 143 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 142 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 141 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 140 DOM
15. 2026-01-11
    listed $99,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,689
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$1,498
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,735
• − Management: −$1,735
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $7,718
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,852
• After-tax cash flow: $6,997/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: J O Combs Unified School District (4445)
• NCES district ID: 0403990
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $61,053
• Composite: 26.01/100
• National rank: #7314
• State rank: #109 of 249 in AZ

Livability — San Tan Valley

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #282
• US rank: #24192

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime D+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Tan Valley, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 95,704
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 51,260
• Household income: $101,477
• Rent vs Own: 14.2% rent · 85.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 389.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Native American 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -132.81%
• Current HPI: 268.1579
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.70%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-11 Listed $99,900 ARMLS