Ellis Plan · Oakleaf Plantation, FL 32068

$237,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,406 sqft · SingleFamily · 187 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Ellis offers 1,406 sq. ft. across two stories with 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and a 1-car garage.

Key facts

• Parking
• Listed 186 days

🏗️ New construction. The $237,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $304,261.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $238k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-397 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (9.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#446 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Tynes Elementary School (math 65% / reading 63%, grade B, #552 of 2,144 statewide, top 26%, 1,021 students, 43% FRL); Wilkinson Junior High School (math 54% / reading 49%, grade C, #232 of 571 statewide, top 41%, 752 students, 100% FRL); Oakleaf High School (math 47% / reading 53%, grade D+, #175 of 667 statewide, top 27%, 2,371 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 35% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 873 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 187 days — a 12% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $209,431 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 187 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.59%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $304,261
• List price: $237,990
• Delta: -21.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3305 New Beginnings Ln	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-4%)	8mo	$240,000	$178	70
3221 Roundabout Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,252 (-11%)	6mo	$264,000	$211	55
3467 Lynn Ct	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,488 (+6%)	18mo	$262,500	$176	53
3396 Green Oaks Ln	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,384 (-2%)	16mo	$230,000	$166	52
860 Rooster Hollow Way	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,590 (+13%)	1mo	$330,000	$208	52
908 Rooster Hollow Way	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,590 (+13%)	3mo	$337,000	$212	50
3548 Grayson Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,557 (+11%)	16mo	$287,000	$184	50
628 Sunny Stroll Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,272 (-10%)	21mo	$265,000	$208	49
3248 Roundabout Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,272 (-10%)	24mo	$268,000	$211	46
916 Rooster Hollow Way	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,590 (+13%)	13mo	$348,000	$219	42
3468 Kindlewood Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,590 (+13%)	13mo	$362,000	$228	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-73,770
• Equity at exit: $45,366

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-93,481
• Equity at exit: $26,307

Cash invested: $85,193 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 13 active · 5 under contract
• Months of supply: 26.0 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $279,990 ($180/sqft)
• Median days on market: 75 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +20.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32068

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 873
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,160 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,596
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$380 /mo · $4,564/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $-397

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,662

Max offer price $246,866

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-186	-5% $-292	+0% $-397	+5% $-502	+10% $-607
Rent	-10% $-567	-5% $-482	+0% $-397	+5% $-311	+10% $-226
Rate	-1.0pp $-243	-0.5pp $-319	base $-397	+0.5pp $-475	+1.0pp $-556

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,065
• Closing costs: $9,128
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3608 York Ln Middleburg, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1624	$2,699	$1.66	0d	87	0.04mi
3363 Roundabout Dr Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1420	$1,960	$1.38	9d	1	0.08mi
3587 Evers Cv Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1557	$1,979	$1.27	0d	1	0.36mi
656 Sunny Stroll Dr Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1345	$1,779	$1.32	63d	1	0.37mi
3604 Prairie Wind Ct Middleburg, FL	2.0	2.5	1160	$1,650	$1.42	7d	1	0.39mi
728 Sunny Stroll Dr Middleburg, FL	4.0	2.0	1860	$2,200	$1.18	119d	1	0.41mi
827 Rivertree Pl Middleburg, FL	2.0	2.5	1160	$1,750	$1.51	9d	1	0.46mi
903 Rivertree Pl Middleburg, FL	2.0	2.5	1160	$1,665	$1.44	93d	1	0.47mi
903 Rivertree Pl Middleburg, FL	2.0	2.5	1160	$1,665	$1.44	82d	1	0.47mi
824 Integra Park Dr Middleburg, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1068	$2,438	$2.28	0d	20	0.65mi
816 Redtail Ln Middleburg, FL	4.0	2.0	1821	$2,100	$1.15	9d	1	0.88mi
3349 Horseshoe Trail Dr Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1771	$2,060	$1.16	3d	1	1.09mi
3480 Waterford Oaks Dr Unit 22 Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1768	$1,500	$0.85	4d	1	1.10mi
3480 Waterford Oaks Dr Orange Park, FL	4.0	2.0	1768	$2,195	$1.24	0d	1	1.10mi
3938 Bloomfield Ct Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1715	$2,275	$1.33	112d	1	1.18mi
3938 Bloomfield Ct Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1715	$2,195	$1.28	9d	1	1.18mi
670 Grover Ln Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.5	1704	$1,950	$1.14	67d	1	1.27mi
607 Reese Ave Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.5	1475	$1,800	$1.22	0d	1	1.31mi
619 Grover Ln Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.5	1683	$1,895	$1.13	87d	1	1.32mi
1255 Bedrock Dr Orange Park, FL	4.0	2.0	1673	$2,271	$1.36	4d	1	1.37mi
3764 Athenian Way Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1433	$1,750	$1.22	9d	1	1.40mi
979 Misty Maple Ct Orange Park, FL	4.0	2.0	1673	$2,145	$1.28	9d	1	1.41mi
3750 Silver Bluff Blvd Orange Park, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1862	$1,850	$0.99	97d	2	1.46mi
3750 Silver Bluff Blvd Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.5–3.0	1760	$1,850	$1.05	87d	1	1.46mi
4007 Leatherwood Dr Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.5	1817	$2,166	$1.19	57d	1	1.47mi
3601 Athenian Way Middleburg, FL	3.0	3.0	1432	$1,850	$1.29	9d	1	1.48mi
3601 Athenian Way Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1432	$1,850	$1.29	9d	1	1.48mi
3597 Athenian Way Middleburg, FL	3.0	3.0	1442	$1,850	$1.28	9d	1	1.49mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $244,990

Exterior

• Parking: 1 parking space
• Home design: Single-family plan (Ellis)Active listing
• Construction: New construction (Plan inventory)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1406Address: Middleburg, FL

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan named Ellis (new construction plan)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $237,990 Active 187 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $237,990 Active 186 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $237,990 Active 185 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $237,990 Active 184 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $237,990 Active 183 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $237,990 Active 182 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $237,990 Active 181 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $237,990 Active 180 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $237,990 Active 179 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $237,990 Active 178 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $237,990 Active 177 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $237,990 Active 176 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $237,990 Active 175 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $237,990 Active 169 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $237,990 Active 168 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    pricedays on market $237,990 Active 167 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $245,990 Active 164 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $245,990 Active 162 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $245,990 Active 161 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $245,990 Active 160 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $245,990 Active 158 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $245,990 Active 157 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $245,990 Active 156 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $245,990 Active 155 DOM
25. 2026-08-21
    days on market $245,990 Active 154 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    pricedays on market $245,990 Active 153 DOM
27. 2026-08-19
    days on market $248,990 Active 152 DOM
28. 2026-08-18
    days on market $248,990 Active 151 DOM
29. 2026-08-17
    days on market $248,990 Active 150 DOM
30. 2026-08-16
    days on market $248,990 Active 149 DOM
31. 2026-08-15
    days on market $248,990 Active 148 DOM
32. 2026-08-14
    days on market $248,990 Active 147 DOM
33. 2026-08-13
    days on market $248,990 Active 146 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $248,990 Active 145 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $248,990 Active 144 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $248,990 Active 143 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $248,990 Active 142 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $248,990 Active 141 DOM
39. 2026-08-07
    days on market $248,990 Active 140 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $248,990 Active 139 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $248,990 Active 138 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $248,990 Active 137 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $248,990 Active 136 DOM
44. 2026-08-01
    price $248,990 Active 133 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $250,990 Active 133 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $250,990 Active 131 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $250,990 Active 130 DOM
48. 2026-07-26
    pricedays on market $250,990 Active 128 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $249,990 Active 126 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    pricedays on market $249,990 Active 125 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,914
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,043
• − Property taxes: −$4,564
• − Insurance: −$1,521
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,073
• − Management: −$2,073
• − Depreciation: −$8,851
• Taxable loss: −$10,212
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,451
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,309/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a great value with potential for further improvements to the landscaping and paint.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Painting — Fresh paint can make a home more appealing ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Tynes Elementary School B FL #552/2,144 Nat'l #5,798/41,679 Middle Wilkinson Junior High School C FL #232/571 Nat'l #3,192/14,009 High Ridgeview High School D- FL #207/667 Nat'l #6,330/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Oakleaf Plantation

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #446
• US rank: #8083

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oakleaf Plantation, FL
• County: Clay County · 230,495 people
• City population: 40,366
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 58,983
• Household income: $84,431
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Arabic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -115.99%
• Current HPI: 305.2531
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.35%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $244,990

Exterior

• Parking: 1 parking space
• Home design: Single-family plan (Ellis)Active listing
• Construction: New construction (Plan inventory)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1406Address: Middleburg, FL

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan named Ellis (new construction plan)