Ellis Plan · Oakleaf Plantation, FL 32068

$234,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,406 sqft · SingleFamily · 233 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Ellis offers 1,406 sq. ft. across two stories with 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and a 1-car garage.

Key facts

• Parking
• Listed 232 days

🏗️ New construction. The $234,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $304,251.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $235k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-440 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (10.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#446 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Tynes Elementary School (math 65% / reading 63%, grade B, #552 of 2,144 statewide, top 26%, 1,021 students, 43% FRL); Wilkinson Junior High School (math 54% / reading 49%, grade C, #232 of 571 statewide, top 41%, 752 students, 100% FRL); Oakleaf High School (math 47% / reading 53%, grade D+, #175 of 667 statewide, top 27%, 2,371 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 35% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 962 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 233 days — a 12% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $206,791 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 233 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.20%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $304,251
• List price: $234,990
• Delta: -22.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3305 New Beginnings Ln	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-4%)	10mo	$240,000	$178	68
3221 Roundabout Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,252 (-11%)	8mo	$264,000	$211	54
3467 Lynn Ct	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,488 (+6%)	19mo	$262,500	$176	52
3396 Green Oaks Ln	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,384 (-2%)	18mo	$230,000	$166	51
860 Rooster Hollow Way	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,590 (+13%)	2mo	$330,000	$208	51
908 Rooster Hollow Way	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,590 (+13%)	4mo	$337,000	$212	49
3548 Grayson Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,557 (+11%)	17mo	$287,000	$184	48
628 Sunny Stroll Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,272 (-10%)	22mo	$265,000	$208	48
916 Rooster Hollow Way	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,590 (+13%)	14mo	$348,000	$219	41
3468 Kindlewood Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,590 (+13%)	14mo	$362,000	$228	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-76,551
• Equity at exit: $45,365

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.17×
• Total profit: $-99,543
• Equity at exit: $26,306

Cash invested: $85,190 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 13 active · 5 under contract
• Months of supply: 19.5 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $280,000 ($179/sqft)
• Median days on market: 65 d
• This list price: 8% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +20.9% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32068

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 962
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,105 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,596
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$380 /mo · $4,564/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $-440

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,662

Max offer price $240,580

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-230	-5% $-335	+0% $-440	+5% $-545	+10% $-650
Rent	-10% $-606	-5% $-523	+0% $-440	+5% $-357	+10% $-274
Rate	-1.0pp $-287	-0.5pp $-363	base $-440	+0.5pp $-519	+1.0pp $-599

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,063
• Closing costs: $9,128
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3608 York Ln Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1624	$2,474	$1.52	0d	78	0.04mi
3363 Roundabout Dr Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1420	$1,997	$1.41	10d	1	0.08mi
3302 Roundabout Dr Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1606	$2,097	$1.31	10d	1	0.20mi
3587 Evers Cv Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1557	$1,799	$1.16	28d	1	0.36mi
3587 Evers Cv Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1557	$1,799	$1.16	10d	1	0.36mi
656 Sunny Stroll Dr Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1345	$1,779	$1.32	109d	1	0.37mi
660 Sunny Stroll Dr Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1662	$1,815	$1.09	10d	1	0.37mi
3592 Evers Cv Middleburg, FL	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,200	$1.29	2d	1	0.38mi
3604 Prairie Wind Ct Middleburg, FL	2.0	2.5	1160	$1,595	$1.38	10d	1	0.39mi
728 Sunny Stroll Dr Middleburg, FL	4.0	2.0	1860	$2,200	$1.18	164d	1	0.41mi
827 Rivertree Pl Middleburg, FL	2.0	2.5	1160	$1,750	$1.51	55d	1	0.46mi
827 Rivertree Pl Middleburg, FL	2.0	2.5	1160	$1,600	$1.38	10d	1	0.46mi
903 Rivertree Pl Middleburg, FL	2.0	2.5	1160	$1,665	$1.44	128d	1	0.47mi
903 Rivertree Pl Middleburg, FL	2.0	2.5	1160	$1,665	$1.44	138d	1	0.47mi
824 Integra Park Dr Middleburg, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1068	$2,242	$2.10	0d	19	0.65mi
816 Redtail Ln Middleburg, FL	4.0	2.0	1821	$2,100	$1.15	55d	1	0.88mi
3349 Horseshoe Trail Dr Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1771	$2,060	$1.16	48d	1	1.09mi
3480 Waterford Oaks Dr Unit 22 Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1768	$1,500	$0.85	49d	1	1.10mi
3480 Waterford Oaks Dr Orange Park, FL	4.0	2.0	1768	$2,197	$1.24	29d	1	1.10mi
488 Tynes Blvd Middleburg, FL	4.0	2.5	1875	$2,250	$1.20	10d	1	1.16mi
3938 Bloomfield Ct Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1715	$2,195	$1.28	55d	1	1.18mi
3938 Bloomfield Ct Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1715	$2,275	$1.33	158d	1	1.18mi
761 Turkey Point Dr Orange Park, FL	4.0	2.0	1753	$2,365	$1.35	1d	1	1.18mi
670 Grover Ln Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.5	1704	$1,950	$1.14	112d	1	1.27mi
607 Reese Ave Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.5	1475	$1,800	$1.22	10d	1	1.31mi
619 Grover Ln Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.5	1683	$1,895	$1.13	133d	1	1.32mi
3905 Aubrey Ln Orange Park, FL	3.0	3.0	1580	$1,900	$1.20	9d	1	1.34mi
3861 Aubrey Ln Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.5	1564	$1,800	$1.15	10d	1	1.34mi
1255 Bedrock Dr Orange Park, FL	4.0	2.0	1673	$1,861	$1.11	7d	1	1.37mi
3949 Leatherwood Dr Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1732	$2,070	$1.20	20d	1	1.38mi
3764 Athenian Way Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1433	$1,750	$1.22	10d	1	1.40mi
979 Misty Maple Ct Orange Park, FL	4.0	2.0	1673	$2,107	$1.26	2d	1	1.41mi
3871 Athenian Way Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1433	$1,945	$1.36	9d	1	1.42mi
3875 Athenian Way Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1433	$1,945	$1.36	9d	1	1.42mi
3879 Athenian Way Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1433	$1,945	$1.36	9d	1	1.43mi
3885 Athenian Way Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1433	$1,945	$1.36	9d	1	1.43mi
3750 Silver Bluff Blvd Orange Park, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1862	$1,850	$0.99	143d	2	1.46mi
3750 Silver Bluff Blvd Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.5–3.0	1760	$1,850	$1.05	133d	1	1.46mi
4007 Leatherwood Dr Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.5	1817	$2,166	$1.19	103d	1	1.47mi
3601 Athenian Way Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1432	$1,850	$1.29	55d	1	1.48mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $244,990

Exterior

• Parking: 1 parking space
• Home design: Single-family plan (Ellis)Active listing
• Construction: New construction (Plan inventory)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1406Address: Middleburg, FL

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan named Ellis (new construction plan)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $234,990 Active 233 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $234,990 Active 232 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $234,990 Active 231 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $234,990 Active 230 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $234,990 Active 229 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $234,990 Active 227 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $234,990 Active 226 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $234,990 Active 225 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $234,990 Active 224 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $234,990 Active 223 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $234,990 Active 222 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $234,990 Active 221 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $234,990 Active 220 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $234,990 Active 219 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $234,990 Active 218 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $234,990 Active 217 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $234,990 Active 216 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $234,990 Active 215 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $234,990 Active 214 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $234,990 Active 213 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $234,990 Active 212 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $234,990 Active 211 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $234,990 Active 210 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $234,990 Active 209 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $234,990 Active 208 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $234,990 Active 207 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $234,990 Active 206 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $234,990 Active 205 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $234,990 Active 204 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $234,990 Active 203 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    pricedays on market $234,990 Active 202 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $239,990 Active 201 DOM
33. 2026-10-07
    price $239,990 Active 200 DOM
34. 2026-10-06
    days on market $237,990 Active 200 DOM
35. 2026-10-05
    days on market $237,990 Active 199 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $237,990 Active 198 DOM
37. 2026-10-03
    days on market $237,990 Active 197 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $237,990 Active 196 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $237,990 Active 195 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $237,990 Active 194 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $237,990 Active 193 DOM
42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $237,990 Active 192 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $237,990 Active 191 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $237,990 Active 189 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $237,990 Active 188 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $237,990 Active 187 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $237,990 Active 186 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $237,990 Active 185 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $237,990 Active 184 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $237,990 Active 183 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,255
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,043
• − Property taxes: −$4,564
• − Insurance: −$1,521
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,020
• − Management: −$2,020
• − Depreciation: −$8,851
• Taxable loss: −$10,765
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,584
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,697/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a great value with potential for further improvements to the landscaping and paint.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Painting — Fresh paint can make a home more appealing ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Tynes Elementary School B FL #552/2,144 Nat'l #5,798/41,679 Middle Wilkinson Junior High School C FL #232/571 Nat'l #3,192/14,009 High Ridgeview High School D- FL #207/667 Nat'l #6,330/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Oakleaf Plantation

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #446
• US rank: #8083

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oakleaf Plantation, FL
• County: Clay County · 230,495 people
• City population: 40,366
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 58,983
• Household income: $84,431
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Arabic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -115.99%
• Current HPI: 305.2531
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.35%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $244,990

Exterior

• Parking: 1 parking space
• Home design: Single-family plan (Ellis)Active listing
• Construction: New construction (Plan inventory)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1406Address: Middleburg, FL

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan named Ellis (new construction plan)