64 Aspen Colony #4 · Fox Lake, IL 60020

$95,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 504 sqft · Condo public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1970 $293/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Updates being done to unit. No showings at the moment.

Key facts

• $293 HOA
• 2 parking spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: 8 units in the building; Living area source: Builder; Property not currently leased; Not rebuilt or rehabbed; Subdivision: Vacation Village; Location: Fox Lake (Antioch Township)
• Financial info: Special service area: No; Tax information not included per instructions
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $293; Association covers parking, insurance, security, clubhouse, pool, exterior maintenance, lawn care, snow removal, lake rights, and other items; Manager on-site; Pets allowed (cats and dogs), max pet weight 80 lbs

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces (unassigned / other)
• Security: On-site manager; Association includes security
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Attached single (condo); Condo ownership; Entry level: 1; Model: THE CLIPPER
• Construction: Built 51–60 years ago; Cedar construction; Asphalt roof; Built before 1978
• Exterior features: Common lot (shared); School bus service; Commuter train access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Range hood; Eating area / table space in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom (master bedroom on second level); Additional bedroom-like rooms listed (Bedroom 2, Bedroom 3, Bedroom 4)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring throughout; Ceramic tile in kitchen and living room; Wood laminate in master bedroom
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Wall unit cooling
• Interior features: Storage; 3 total rooms; Combined dining and living area
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.4% vs local median 6.0% in Fox Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#247 in IL, #4,462 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute A; Watch: amenities D+, health & safety F.
• Grant Chsd 124 (suburban): math 23% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #296 of 620 in IL (top 48%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Grant Community High School (math 23% / reading 27%, grade F, #247 of 693 statewide, top 36%, 1,837 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 948 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (424 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $93,575 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 61.22%
• DSCR: 3.72
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 60.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.68×
• Total profit: $71,260
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 64.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.55×
• Total profit: $174,254
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60020

• Home prices YoY: -30.7%
• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,920 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$119 /mo · $1,425/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$293
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$613
• Net cashflow: $1,357

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,202

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,423	-5% $1,390	+0% $1,357	+5% $1,324	+10% $1,291
Rent	-10% $1,126	-5% $1,242	+0% $1,357	+5% $1,472	+10% $1,588
Rate	-1.0pp $1,405	-0.5pp $1,381	base $1,357	+0.5pp $1,332	+1.0pp $1,307

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
32 Montego Colony #1 Fox Lake, IL	2.0	1.0	690	$1,400	$2.03	44d	1	0.22mi
306 Waverly St Unit 1244943P Spring Grove, IL	3.0	1.0	742	$8,714	$11.74	44d	1	0.60mi
38381 N 6th Ave Spring Grove, IL	2.0	1.0	600	$1,095	$1.82	0d	1	1.05mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $293 · $3,516/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Coming Soon 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Coming Soon 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Coming Soon 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Coming Soon 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Coming Soon 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Coming Soon 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Coming Soon 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $95,000 Coming Soon 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   remarks 54-char remark
10. 2026-06-04
    listed $95,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,036
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,425
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,803
• − Management: −$2,803
• − HOA: −$3,516
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $15,929
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,823
• After-tax cash flow: $12,461/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grant Chsd 124
• NCES district ID: 1717340
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $59,450
• Composite: 22.95/100
• National rank: #7989
• State rank: #296 of 620 in IL

Livability — Fox Lake

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #247
• US rank: #4462

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fox Lake, IL
• City population: 10,846
• Population (ZIP): 10,846

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 700,217 people
• By 2030: 693,290 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 673,588 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 643,556 · -8.1%
• By 2075: 562,792 · -19.6%
• By 2100: 457,715 · -34.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 10% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 15% Portuguese 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.8) · D 59.7% · R 38.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.1pp toward D · 2008: 19.6pp · 2024: 20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.8 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+20.3 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+19.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -97.19%
• Current HPI: 219.6301
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B