Baja Plan · Houston, TX 77532

$189,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,189 sqft · SingleFamily · 262 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This two-story home features a classic layout ideal for young families and working professionals. The living area is located on the primary floor and consists of a family room and fully-equipped kitchen. There are three bedrooms on the second level, including the spacious owner's suite, which is situated at the back of the home for optimal privacy and comfort.

Key facts

• Green space
• Low hoa fees
• Short commutes

Tags

• LOW HOA FEES
• GREEN SPACE
• WALKING TRAILS
• PRIME LOCATION
• PROXIMITY TO SHOPPING CENTERS
• SHORT COMMUTES

🏗️ New construction. The $189,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $243,490.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $190k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $44 ($523/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $167k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1172 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 262 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $167,191 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 262 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.77%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $243,490
• List price: $189,990
• Delta: -21.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20131 Green Mallard St	0.39mi	3/2.5	1,189 (0%)	1mo	$138,991	$117	81
20138 Green Mallard St	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,189 (0%)	2mo	$191,990	$161	81
20147 Green Mallard St	0.38mi	3/2.5	1,189 (0%)	2mo	$191,990	$161	81
20050 White Dove Trl	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,273 (+7%)	1mo	$239,990	$189	64
20034 White Dove Trl	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,273 (+7%)	2mo	$237,990	$187	62
20026 White Dove Trl	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,273 (+7%)	2mo	$239,990	$189	61
20166 Green Mallard St	0.35mi	3/2.5	1,360 (+14%)	1mo	$201,990	$149	58
20159 Green Mallard St	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,360 (+14%)	1mo	$201,990	$149	58
20127 Green Mallard St	0.39mi	3/2.5	1,360 (+14%)	0mo	$181,990	$134	57
20235 New Moon Trl	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+9%)	1mo	$439,999	$340	56
20123 Green Mallard St	0.40mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,013 (-15%)	1mo	$125,241	$124	51
20155 Green Mallard St	0.37mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,013 (-15%)	2mo	$181,990	$180	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-39,938
• Equity at exit: $36,305

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-44,170
• Equity at exit: $21,053

Cash invested: $68,177 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1172
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,185 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,277
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$304 /mo · $3,652/yr
• Insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $44

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,130

Max offer price $243,490

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,872
• Closing costs: $7,305
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20119 Iron Winds St Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,875	$1.32	12d	1	0.20mi
20034 White Dove Dr Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1273	$1,850	$1.45	12d	1	0.49mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,990 Active 262 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,990 Active 261 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,990 Active 260 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,990 Active 259 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,990 Active 257 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,990 Active 253 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,990 Active 252 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,990 Active 251 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $189,990 Active 248 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,990 Active 246 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,990 Active 245 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,990 Active 244 DOM
13. 2025-09-29
    listed $189,990 Active 362-char remark

    Show marketing remark (362 chars)

    This two-story home features a classic layout ideal for young families and working professionals. The living area is located on the primary floor and consists of a family room and fully-equipped kitchen. There are three bedrooms on the second level, including the spacious owner's suite, which is situated at the back of the home for optimal privacy and comfort.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,222
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,639
• − Property taxes: −$3,652
• − Insurance: −$1,217
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,098
• − Management: −$2,098
• − Depreciation: −$7,083
• Taxable loss: −$3,566
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$856
• After-tax cash flow: $1,379/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in good condition with a classic layout ideal for young families and working professionals. It features a modern kitchen, well-maintained exterior, and a spacious owner's suite. The home is move-in ready and has the potential for further value-adding improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to both buyers and tenants.
• Both Upgrading the flooring in the living area — Upgrading the flooring can enhance the home's overall appearance and value.
• Both Upgrading the bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and comfort for potential buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to both buyers and tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the flooring in the living area — Upgrading the flooring can enhance the home's overall appearance and value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and comfort for potential buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 382.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-09-29 Listed $189,990 Zillow