BAJA Plan · Crosby, TX 77532

$179,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,189 sqft · SingleFamily · 405 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This two-story home features a classic layout ideal for young families and working professionals. The living area is located on the primary floor and consists of a family room and fully-equipped kitchen. There are three bedrooms on the second level, including the spacious owner's suite, which is situated at the back of the home for optimal privacy and comfort.

Key facts

• Green space
• Low hoa fees
• Short commutes

Tags

• LOW HOA FEES
• GREEN SPACE
• WALKING TRAILS
• PRIME LOCATION
• PROXIMITY TO SHOPPING CENTERS
• SHORT COMMUTES

🏗️ New construction. The $179,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $232,943.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $180k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-48 ($-578/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.7% in Crosby — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,121 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1919 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 83% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 405 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $158,391 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 405 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.89%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $232,943
• List price: $179,990
• Delta: -22.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20106 Green Mallard St	0.40mi	3/2.5	1,189 (0%)	3mo	$168,990	$142	79
20122 Green Mallard St	0.39mi	3/2.5	1,189 (0%)	4mo	$150,001	$126	78
20115 Green Mallard St	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,189 (0%)	4mo	$165,490	$139	76
1730 West Stroker Rd	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+12%)	4mo	$212,990	$160	72
20135 White Dove Trl	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,273 (+7%)	2mo	$185,990	$146	65
20110 White Dove Trl	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,273 (+7%)	3mo	$181,990	$143	64
20134 Green Mallard St	0.38mi	3/2.5	1,360 (+14%)	5mo	$162,440	$119	54
20127 Green Mallard St	0.39mi	3/2.5	1,360 (+14%)	5mo	$181,990	$134	54
20118 Green Mallard St	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,360 (+14%)	3mo	$174,990	$129	53
20082 Green Mallard St	0.41mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,013 (-15%)	1mo	$150,990	$149	49
20130 Green Mallard St	0.38mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,013 (-15%)	4mo	$153,790	$152	49
20075 Green Mallard St	0.42mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,013 (-15%)	1mo	$132,991	$131	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-43,764
• Equity at exit: $34,733

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-53,793
• Equity at exit: $20,141

Cash invested: $65,224 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 26 active · 48 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.6 mo (18%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $187,990 ($143/sqft)
• Median days on market: 40 d
• This list price: 42% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +37.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1919
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,977 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,222
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$291 /mo · $3,494/yr
• Insurance: −$97
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $-48

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,038

Max offer price $225,970

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $113	-5% $32	+0% $-48	+5% $-129	+10% $-209
Rent	-10% $-204	-5% $-126	+0% $-48	+5% $30	+10% $108
Rate	-1.0pp $69	-0.5pp $11	base $-48	+0.5pp $-109	+1.0pp $-170

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,236
• Closing costs: $6,988
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1703 Green Warbler Dr Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1273	$1,775	$1.39	37d	1	0.12mi
20119 Iron Winds St Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,725	$1.22	41d	1	0.20mi
20110 White Dove Trl Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	50d	1	0.42mi
20062 White Dove Trl Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$1,666	$1.18	9d	1	0.46mi
20034 White Dove Dr Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1273	$1,850	$1.45	153d	1	0.49mi
1305 Big Deer Dr Crosby, TX	2.0	1.0	1500	$1,450	$0.97	43d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $179,990 Active 405 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $179,990 Active 404 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $179,990 Active 403 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $179,990 Active 402 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $179,990 Active 401 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $179,990 Active 399 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $179,990 Active 398 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $179,990 Active 397 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $179,990 Active 396 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $179,990 Active 395 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $179,990 Active 394 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $179,990 Active 393 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $179,990 Active 392 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $179,990 Active 391 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $179,990 Active 390 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $179,990 Active 389 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $179,990 Active 388 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $179,990 Active 387 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $179,990 Active 386 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $179,990 Active 385 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $179,990 Active 384 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $179,990 Active 383 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $179,990 Active 382 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $179,990 Active 381 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $179,990 Active 380 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $179,990 Active 379 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $179,990 Active 378 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $179,990 Active 377 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $179,990 Active 376 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $179,990 Active 375 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $179,990 Active 374 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $179,990 Active 373 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $179,990 Active 372 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $179,990 Active 371 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $179,990 Active 370 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $179,990 Active 369 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $179,990 Active 368 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $179,990 Active 367 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $179,990 Active 366 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $179,990 Active 365 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $179,990 Active 364 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $179,990 Active 363 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $179,990 Active 362 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $179,990 Active 361 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $179,990 Active 360 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $179,990 Active 359 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $179,990 Active 358 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $179,990 Active 357 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $179,990 Active 356 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $179,990 Active 355 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,721
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,048
• − Property taxes: −$3,494
• − Insurance: −$1,165
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,898
• − Management: −$1,898
• − Depreciation: −$6,777
• Taxable loss: −$4,558
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,094
• After-tax cash flow: $516/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in good condition with a classic layout ideal for young families and working professionals. It features a modern kitchen, well-maintained exterior, and a spacious owner's suite. The home is move-in ready and has the potential for further value-adding improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to both buyers and tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the flooring in the living area — Upgrading the flooring can enhance the home's overall appearance and value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and comfort for potential buyers/tenants. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

High Crosby H S F TX #652/1,632 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 59/100

Livability — Crosby

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1121
• US rank: #19783

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 33,780
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-09-29 Listed $189,990 Zillow