955 Pickering Dr · Chena Ridge, AK 99709

$359,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,872 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 2002 1.86 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Great location with great access to town, shopping and base access points. Rents are $1100 down and $1150 up. You can live almost mortgage free. Upstairs apartment has two bed one bath with vaulted ceiling and its own spacious outdoor elevated deck for the BBQ and entertainment. Down stairs has two bed one bath and its own lower level deck for BBQ and entertaining guests. Each apartment has washer and dryer hook ups in the unit. Each apartment is on its own electrical and head bolt heaters hook ups. Ample parking for both units. Large yard on both sides for garden and entertaining. Great investment property or cut your living expenses and call it home. This property has supplied high occupancy do to its location and rents. Gross annual rents of 27K, an utilities separated. Current owner pays for fuel and costs are low as property is efficient. Location is suitable for cable TV and high speed internet access. Property is located approximately 4 miles to the University, 7.5 miles to the base entrance, 5 miles to Fred Meyers and airport. Ease of access and yet peaceful and quite living in the popular Chena Pump area. Owner had previously occupied the upstairs unit and has used it as an investment since. Contact Ray Brasier for any showing requests. 907-452-6387

Key facts

• Ample parking
• Large lot
• Convenient location

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• AMPLE PARKING
• CONVENIENT LOCATION
• TURNKEY INCOME PROPERTY
• HIGH-DEMAND RENTAL AREA

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 8 parking spaces
• Home design: Duplex residential income property; 2 stories
• Exterior features: Gravel road access; Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; Baseboard heating
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $359k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $17 ($209/yr) — positive. Per door: $9/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $314k (12.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $314k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.9% in Chena Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#59 in AK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, cost of living C-, amenities F.
• Fairbanks North Star Borough School District (urban): math 33% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #10 of 21 in AK (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Randy Smith Middle School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #20 of 36 statewide, top 54%, 407 students, 28% FRL); West Valley High School (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #24 of 61 statewide, top 42%, 906 students, 24% FRL) — zoned schools at 26% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1 units permitted in Fairbanks North Star Borough in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fairbanks North Star County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $314,200 (12.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.21%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-57,027
• Equity at exit: $53,528

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-48,077
• Equity at exit: $31,040

Cash invested: $100,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99709

• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 19.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,142 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,883
• Tax from tax record: −$433 /mo · $5,191/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$660
• Net cashflow: $17

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,120

Max offer price $359,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $221	-5% $119	+0% $17	+5% $-84	+10% $-186
Rent	-10% $-231	-5% $-107	+0% $17	+5% $142	+10% $266
Rate	-1.0pp $198	-0.5pp $109	base $17	+0.5pp $-76	+1.0pp $-170

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$3,142
Total (2 units)			$3,142

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,750
• Closing costs: $10,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-30
   days on market $359,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-05-26
   listed $359,000 Active
3. 2022-03-20
   price $1,200
4. 2018-12-13
   soldstatus
5. 2018-11-24
   soldstatus 1278-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1278 chars)

   Great location with great access to town, shopping and base access points. Rents are $1100 down and $1150 up. You can live almost mortgage free. Upstairs apartment has two bed one bath with vaulted ceiling and its own spacious outdoor elevated deck for the BBQ and entertainment. Down stairs has two bed one bath and its own lower level deck for BBQ and entertaining guests. Each apartment has washer and dryer hook ups in the unit. Each apartment is on its own electrical and head bolt heaters hook ups. Ample parking for both units. Large yard on both sides for garden and entertaining. Great investment property or cut your living expenses and call it home. This property has supplied high occupancy do to its location and rents. Gross annual rents of 27K, an utilities separated. Current owner pays for fuel and costs are low as property is efficient. Location is suitable for cable TV and high speed internet access. Property is located approximately 4 miles to the University, 7.5 miles to the base entrance, 5 miles to Fred Meyers and airport. Ease of access and yet peaceful and quite living in the popular Chena Pump area. Owner had previously occupied the upstairs unit and has used it as an investment since. Contact Ray Brasier for any showing requests. 907-452-6387

6. 2018-07-16
   listed $259,900 1278-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1278 chars)

   Great location with great access to town, shopping and base access points. Rents are $1100 down and $1150 up. You can live almost mortgage free. Upstairs apartment has two bed one bath with vaulted ceiling and its own spacious outdoor elevated deck for the BBQ and entertainment. Down stairs has two bed one bath and its own lower level deck for BBQ and entertaining guests. Each apartment has washer and dryer hook ups in the unit. Each apartment is on its own electrical and head bolt heaters hook ups. Ample parking for both units. Large yard on both sides for garden and entertaining. Great investment property or cut your living expenses and call it home. This property has supplied high occupancy do to its location and rents. Gross annual rents of 27K, an utilities separated. Current owner pays for fuel and costs are low as property is efficient. Location is suitable for cable TV and high speed internet access. Property is located approximately 4 miles to the University, 7.5 miles to the base entrance, 5 miles to Fred Meyers and airport. Ease of access and yet peaceful and quite living in the popular Chena Pump area. Owner had previously occupied the upstairs unit and has used it as an investment since. Contact Ray Brasier for any showing requests. 907-452-6387

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,191 · $433/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,191 · $433/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,704
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,110
• − Property taxes: −$5,191
• − Insurance: −$1,795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,016
• − Management: −$3,016
• − Depreciation: −$10,444
• Taxable loss: −$5,867
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,408
• After-tax cash flow: $1,617/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fairbanks North Star Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200600
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,697
• Composite: 35.5/100
• National rank: #4915
• State rank: #10 of 21 in AK

Livability — Chena Ridge

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #16765

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chena Ridge, AK
• County: Fairbanks North Star Borough · 69,381 people
• Metro: Fairbanks, AK
• Population (ZIP): 29,551
• Household income: $86,294
• Rent vs Own: 35.2% rent · 64.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 868.0

Population outlook (Fairbanks North Star County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,607 people
• By 2030: 102,796 · +1.2%
• By 2040: 104,748 · +3.1%
• By 2050: 107,598 · +5.9%
• By 2075: 118,829 · +16.9%
• By 2100: 127,151 · +25.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Two or more races 16% Hispanic / Latino 9% Native American 7% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fairbanks North Star

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -177.64%
• Current HPI: 152.0818
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Fairbanks, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+38.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $359,000 GFBR
• 2022-03-20 Price Changed $1,200 RENT.
• 2018-12-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-11-24 Sold (MLS) — GFBR
• 2018-07-16 Listed $259,900 GFBR

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,191 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.