134 Nautilus Dr · Islamorada, Village of Islands, FL 33036

$415,000

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,907 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 177 Days on market

Built 2021 7,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

New co-ownership opportunity: Own one-eighth of this professionally managed, turnkey home by Pacaso. Tucked within the coveted White Marlin Beach enclave, this canal-front retreat captures the essence of refined Florida Keys living. Framed by swaying palms and a gracious front entry, the 5-bedroom, 3.5-bathroom residence offers a seamless blend of comfort and coastal elegance. The open-concept main level is bathed in natural light, with soaring ceilings, oversized windows, and glass doors that connect the living area to the private pool and tranquil canal beyond. A bright, gourmet kitchen anchors the space with JennAir appliances, dual sinks, and generous cabinetry—ideal for effortles

Key facts

• Private pool
• Gourmet kitchen
• Canal front retreat

Tags

• CANAL FRONT RETREAT
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• PRIVATE POOL
• CUSTOM WALK IN CLOSET
• DIRECT ACCESS TO PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed with restrictions; Short-term rentals not allowed; Located in flood zone AE
• Financial info: Acceptable financing: Cash, Conventional, Other (specify)
• HOA & community: No first right of refusal; No association fee; Association services include cable, security, water and sewer

Exterior

• Parking: Garage; 2-car garage
• Security: Security system (interior listed as included); Security included in association services
• Utilities: Cable available / pre-wired for cable; Public sewer hookup; Water service included in association services
• Home design: Ground level building style; Building is above flood; Faces Bay/Gulf side
• Construction: Built in 2021; Concrete block (CBS) and Hardi board siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Fencing; Landscape lighting; Open porch/balcony; In-ground pool; On waterfront (canal front); Bay/Gulf view and canal view

Interior

• Kitchen: Stainless steel appliances; Oven; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Freezer; Dishwasher; Disposal
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central A/C
• Interior features: Drapes and blinds included; Security system; Walk-in closet; Storage space; Smoke alarms; Furnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $415k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $74 ($882/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $415k).
• Recommended offer: $365k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 0.3% in Islamorada, Village of Islands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Monroe (town): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #23 of 73 in FL (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 153 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 332 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (42 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,263/mo this rent would consume 59% of the median local household income ($86k/yr) (locally 68% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $44k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $42k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Monroe County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $116k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$71k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 177 days — a 12% lower offer ($365k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $365,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 177 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.16%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $2,779,092
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
72 W Plaza Granada	0.21mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,937 (+1%)	4mo	$2,300,000	$783	80
128 W Plaza Del Sol	0.37mi	6/3.5 (+1)	2,843 (-2%)	12mo	$3,210,000	$1,129	64
119 W Plaza Del Lago	0.26mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,128 (+8%)	10mo	$2,989,000	$956	62
109 Sapodilla Dr	0.52mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,130 (+8%)	6mo	$2,900,000	$927	53
117 Buena Vista Ct	0.44mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,683 (-8%)	8mo	$2,900,000	$1,081	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.99×
• Total profit: $231,029
• Equity at exit: $373,865

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.83×
• Total profit: $677,310
• Equity at exit: $806,254

Cash invested: $116,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33036

• Home prices YoY: 34.3%
• Active inventory: 153
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,263 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,176
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$519 /mo · $6,225/yr
• Insurance: −$173
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$895
• Net cashflow: $74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,170

Max offer price $415,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $103,750
• Closing costs: $12,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 44 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $415,000 Active 177 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $415,000 Active 176 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $415,000 Active 175 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $415,000 Active 174 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $415,000 Active 173 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $415,000 Active 171 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $415,000 Active 170 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $415,000 Active 168 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $415,000 Active 167 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $415,000 Active 166 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $415,000 Active 165 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $415,000 Active 162 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $415,000 Active 161 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $415,000 Active 160 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $415,000 Active 159 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $415,000 Active 158 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $415,000 Active 157 DOM
18. 2026-05-08
    price $415,000
19. 2026-01-07
    status Active
20. 2025-12-01
    status Pending
21. 2025-11-24
    status Active
22. 2025-10-30
    status Pending
23. 2025-10-26
    historical
24. 2025-10-24
    listed $450,000 Active
25. 2025-07-21
    listed $450,000 Active
26. 2025-04-24
    historical
27. 2024-12-10
    price $475,000
28. 2024-12-10
    historical
29. 2024-10-23
    listed $499,000 Active
30. 2024-10-22
    price $489,000
31. 2024-08-06
    listed $519,000 Active
32. 2023-02-07
    historical
33. 2022-11-30
    price $450,000
34. 2022-11-02
    listed $498,000 Active
35. 2022-05-17
    historical
36. 2022-01-05
    listed $444,000 Active
37. 2021-12-30
    soldstatus $2,790,000
38. 2021-12-27
    soldstatus $2,790,000 Closed
39. 2021-11-24
    status Pending
40. 2021-10-15
    price $2,790,000
41. 2021-09-07
    price $2,890,000
42. 2021-05-19
    listed $2,959,000 Active
43. 2007-10-17
    soldstatus $305,000
44. 1995-12-13
    soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $51,160
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,246
• − Property taxes: −$6,225
• − Insurance: −$7,194
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,093
• − Management: −$4,093
• − Depreciation: −$12,073
• Taxable loss: −$5,763
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,383
• After-tax cash flow: $2,265/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Monroe
• NCES district ID: 1201320
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $56,955
• Composite: 45.51/100
• National rank: #2608
• State rank: #23 of 73 in FL

Livability — Islamorada, Village of Islands

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Islamorada, Village of Islands, FL
• County: Monroe County · 66,185 people
• Metro: Key West, FL
• Population (ZIP): 3,777
• Household income: $86,032
• Rent vs Own: 15.9% rent · 84.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 68.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,706 people
• By 2030: 96,308 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 106,565 · +17.5%
• By 2050: 116,500 · +28.4%
• By 2075: 141,423 · +55.9%
• By 2100: 151,947 · +67.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Subsaharan African 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 16% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: R (+18.3) · D 40.5% · R 58.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.2pp toward R · 2008: 4.9pp · 2024: -18.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.3 2020: R+7.9 2016: R+6.9 2012: D+0.4 2008: D+4.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 161.75%
• Current HPI: 632.97
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Key West, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1085.7% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $415,000 FLKMLS
• 2026-01-07 Relisted — FLKMLS
• 2025-12-01 Pending — FLKMLS
• 2025-11-24 Relisted — FLKMLS
• 2025-10-30 Pending — FLKMLS
• 2025-10-26 Listing Removed — MARMLS
• 2025-10-24 Listed $450,000 FLKMLS
• 2025-07-21 Listed $450,000 MARMLS
• 2025-04-24 Listing Removed — FLKMLS
• 2024-12-10 Price Changed $475,000 FLKMLS
• 2024-12-10 Listing Removed — FLKMLS
• 2024-10-23 Listed $499,000 FLKMLS
• 2024-10-22 Price Changed $489,000 FLKMLS
• 2024-08-06 Listed $519,000 FLKMLS
• 2023-02-07 Listing Removed — FLKMLS
• 2022-11-30 Price Changed $450,000 FLKMLS
• 2022-11-02 Listed $498,000 FLKMLS
• 2022-05-17 Listing Removed — FLKMLS
• 2022-01-05 Listed $444,000 FLKMLS
• 2021-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $2,790,000 Public Records
• 2021-12-27 Sold (MLS) $2,790,000 FLKMLS
• 2021-11-24 Pending — FLKMLS
• 2021-10-15 Price Changed $2,790,000 FLKMLS
• 2021-09-07 Price Changed $2,890,000 FLKMLS
• 2021-05-19 Listed $2,959,000 FLKMLS
• 2007-10-17 Sold (Public Records) $305,000 Public Records
• 1995-12-13 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+27.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $22,230 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.