528 4th St SE · Stanley, ND 58784

$85,000

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,376 sqft · Other · 88 Days on market

Built 1938 6,970 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.7/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• Vinyl flooring
• Large bathroom
• Natural light

Tags

• WHITE CABINETRY
• VINYL FLOORING
• LARGE BATHROOM
• NATURAL LIGHT
• STEEL ROOF
• DECK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking; 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Below-grade finished area; R1 zoning
• Exterior features: Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Oven; Refrigerator
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Range, Oven, Refrigerator; Full unfinished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $283 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $80k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#17 in ND, #3,477 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute C-, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Stanley 2 (rural): math 21% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #41 of 53 in ND (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Stanley Elementary School (math 23% / reading 40%, grade F, #181 of 236 statewide, top 77%, 428 students, 26% FRL); Stanley High School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #108 of 144 statewide, top 88%, 327 students, 22% FRL).
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 29 units permitted in Mountrail County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (4.0% local appreciation)).
• Mountrail County population projected at +118% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1938 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $79,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1938 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.28%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.37×
• Total profit: $32,618
• Equity at exit: $42,852

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.60×
• Total profit: $85,651
• Equity at exit: $69,893

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58784

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,032 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $614/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$217
• Net cashflow: $283

Break-even live

Break-even rent $674

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $331	-5% $307	+0% $283	+5% $259	+10% $235
Rent	-10% $202	-5% $243	+0% $283	+5% $324	+10% $365
Rate	-1.0pp $326	-0.5pp $305	base $283	+0.5pp $261	+1.0pp $239

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $85,000 Active 88 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $85,000 Active 87 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 83 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 80 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $85,000 Active 79 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $85,000 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 74 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $85,000 Active 72 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $85,000 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 69 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 68 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 67 DOM
17. 2026-03-25
    listed $85,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ND · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $614 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $833 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: +$219/yr (+$18/mo · 35.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,389
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$614
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$991
• − Management: −$991
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $2,134
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$512
• After-tax cash flow: $2,887/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stanley 2
• NCES district ID: 3817570
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $64,306
• Composite: 26.68/100
• National rank: #7160
• State rank: #41 of 53 in ND

Livability — Stanley

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #3477

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stanley, ND
• Population (ZIP): 2,728

Population outlook (Mountrail County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,354 people
• By 2030: 19,818 · +21.2%
• By 2040: 27,393 · +67.5%
• By 2050: 35,721 · +118.4%
• By 2075: 59,193 · +261.9%
• By 2100: 81,883 · +400.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 10% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 26% Scottish 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 11% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mountrail

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.1) · D 27.7% · R 70.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -45.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -43.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.1 2020: R+37.6 2016: R+33.4 2012: R+16.2 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• Current HPI: 132.7513
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Listed $85,000 MMLS

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $614 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.