913 Yearling Ln · Krugerville, TX 76227

$272,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,461 sqft · SingleFamily · 34 Days on market

Built 2026 0.26 ac lot $187/sqft · 17% below area Est $331k · 17% under $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new three-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living, ideal for modern lifestyles. Two bedrooms are located near the front of the home surrounding a full bathroom, adjacent to a spacious and flexible open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, living and dining areas. A luxurious owner's suite provides a serene retreat at the back of the home with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder listing / special listing conditions: Builder
• Financial info: Accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, USDA, and VA financing
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Annual association fee ($600); Association provides full use of facilities and management services

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (garage faces front); Covered parking for 2 vehicles
• Security: Prewired security; Smoke detector(s); Carbon monoxide detector(s)
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Concrete, curbs, and sidewalks; Located in a Municipal Utility District
• Home design: Single family residence; One-story; New construction (2026) — incomplete
• Construction: Brick and other construction materials; New construction (year built 2026)
• Exterior features: Covered porch(es); Gutters; Wood fencing; Landscaped yard; Sprinkler system

Interior

• Kitchen: Natural stone/granite countertops; Breakfast bar; Built-in cabinets; Walk-in pantry; Water line to refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (main level) with walk-in closet; Two additional bedrooms (main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air (ENERGY STAR qualified equipment); Electric heating (ENERGY STAR qualified equipment and RSI-qualified installation); Programmable thermostat (energy features listed)
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Built-in features; Decorative lighting; Pantry; Cable TV available; High speed internet available; Vented exhaust fan; Plumbed for gas in kitchen; Tankless water heater
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup (implied by utility features); Tankless water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $273k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-288 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $231k (15.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (23.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (23.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.2% in Krugerville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#672 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Aubrey ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #119 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Jackie Fuller El (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #865 of 4,322 statewide, top 21%, 735 students, 39% FRL); Aubrey Middle (math 48% / reading 46%, grade D+, #424 of 1,662 statewide, top 27%, 814 students, 34% FRL); Aubrey H S (math 45% / reading 57%, grade D+, #482 of 1,632 statewide, top 30%, 923 students, 29% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 1925 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($265k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $65k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $208,644 (23.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.53%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $330,544
• List price: $272,999
• Delta: 2.26%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
632 Coleman St	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,525 (+4%)	2mo	$275,000	$180	63
620 Coleman St	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,399 (-4%)	11mo	$285,000	$204	54
628 Coleman St	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,539 (+5%)	12mo	$295,000	$192	53
677 Coleman St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,651 (+13%)	5mo	$325,000	$197	50
505 Presidio St	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,539 (+5%)	15mo	$340,000	$221	44
1028 Mason St	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,362 (-7%)	23mo	$330,000	$242	40
599 Concho St	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,637 (+12%)	17mo	$340,000	$208	33
1008 Crockett St	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,637 (+12%)	23mo	$360,000	$220	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-68,655
• Equity at exit: $40,705

10-year hold

• IRR: -42.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.40×
• Total profit: $-106,809
• Equity at exit: $23,604

Cash invested: $76,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76227

• Home prices YoY: -19.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 1925
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,086 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,432
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$341 /mo · $4,095/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $-288

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,451

Max offer price $231,275

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-100	-5% $-194	+0% $-288	+5% $-383	+10% $-477
Rent	-10% $-453	-5% $-371	+0% $-288	+5% $-206	+10% $-124
Rate	-1.0pp $-151	-0.5pp $-219	base $-288	+0.5pp $-359	+1.0pp $-431

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,250
• Closing costs: $8,190
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
685 Coleman St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1869	$2,400	$1.28	9d	1	0.51mi
933 King St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1452	$2,100	$1.45	45d	1	0.55mi
901 King St Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.5	1761	$2,625	$1.49	4d	1	0.59mi
717 Presidio St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$2,100	$1.40	20d	1	0.61mi
1000 Mason St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1539	$2,200	$1.43	45d	1	0.65mi
538 Concho St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1613	$2,285	$1.42	18d	1	0.81mi
538 Concho St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1613	$2,285	$1.42	9d	1	0.81mi
728 Dressage Ln Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1720	$1,850	$1.08	17d	1	1.08mi
732 Dressage Ln Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$1,986	$1.30	45d	1	1.08mi
9808 High Banker Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1283	$1,998	$1.56	22d	1	1.09mi
9808 High Banker Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1283	$1,998	$1.56	0d	1	1.09mi
2009 Derby Ln Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1720	$1,950	$1.13	7d	1	1.11mi
2020 Belgian Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,900	$1.45	26d	1	1.11mi
717 Dressage Ln Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$1,750	$1.15	45d	1	1.11mi
2024 Sulky Ln Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$2,046	$1.40	14d	1	1.12mi
2028 Sulky Ln Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,900	$1.45	45d	1	1.12mi
2028 Belgian Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,899	$1.30	0d	1	1.13mi
2021 Derby Ln Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$1,875	$1.23	0d	1	1.14mi
2029 Welsh Ln Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$2,066	$1.36	14d	1	1.14mi
229 Irick Ct Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.5	1346	$2,000	$1.49	5d	1	1.15mi
2037 Derby Ln Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1720	$1,995	$1.16	22d	1	1.17mi
2031 Stable Ln Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$1,950	$1.29	8d	1	1.18mi
2061 Belgian Dr Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1656	$2,116	$1.28	26d	1	1.19mi
2043 Stable Ln Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1720	$1,850	$1.08	19d	1	1.20mi
2051 Stable Ln Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1720	$2,100	$1.22	45d	1	1.22mi
601 Countryside Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,700	$1.13	6d	1	1.37mi
9813 Cactus Creek Ct Krugerville, TX	3.0	2.0	1561	$2,300	$1.47	9d	1	1.40mi
1641 Meadow Crest Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1503	$2,100	$1.40	26d	1	1.41mi
1713 Meadow Crest Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$2,100	$1.40	26d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $272,999 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $272,999 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $272,999 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $337,999 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $337,999 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $337,999 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $337,999 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $337,999 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $337,999 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $337,999 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $337,999 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $337,999 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $337,999 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $337,999 Active 14 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $337,999 Active 13 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    listed $337,999 Active 453-char remark
17. 2026-03-29
    price $337,999 407-char remark

    Show marketing remark (407 chars)

    This new three-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living, ideal for modern lifestyles. Two bedrooms are located near the front of the home surrounding a full bathroom, adjacent to a spacious and flexible open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, living and dining areas. A luxurious owner's suite provides a serene retreat at the back of the home with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet.

18. 2026-03-22
    listed $329,999 Active 407-char remark

    Show marketing remark (407 chars)

    This new three-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living, ideal for modern lifestyles. Two bedrooms are located near the front of the home surrounding a full bathroom, adjacent to a spacious and flexible open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, living and dining areas. A luxurious owner's suite provides a serene retreat at the back of the home with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥109°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,037
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,292
• − Property taxes: −$4,095
• − Insurance: −$1,365
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,003
• − Management: −$2,003
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$7,942
• Taxable loss: −$8,263
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,983
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,477/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aubrey ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808910
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $77,154
• Composite: 46.21/100
• National rank: #2492
• State rank: #119 of 826 in TX

Livability — Krugerville

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #672
• US rank: #12629

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 55,437
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 62,127
• Household income: $111,402
• Rent vs Own: 22.6% rent · 77.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 959.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 19% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.76%
• Current HPI: 254.2895
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.88%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-17.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $272,999 NTREIS
• 2026-06-12 Price Changed $272,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-18 Listed $337,999 NTREIS
• 2026-03-29 Price Changed $337,999 Zillow
• 2026-03-22 Listed $329,999 Zillow