140 Dockside Rd · Freeport, FL 32439

$310,761

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,641 sqft · Land · 91 Days on market

Built 2026 $59/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 140 Dockside Road, a new home under construction at Magnolia at The Bluffs Phase 3 in Freeport Florida. Inside you will find a bright foyer leading to the open concept living area designed with a seamless connection between the kitchen, dining and living areas. The heart of this home includes the spacious kitchen that features a center island with granite countertops, walk-in pantry and upper and lower cabinetry providing ample storage space. EVP flooring is throughout the common areas of this home, and the kitchen has been equipped with an appliance package that includes a stove, microwave and dishwasher. The living and dining areas offer a comfortable space for family and guest

Key facts

• Ample storage space
• Spacious kitchen
• Evp flooring

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• CENTER ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• AMPLE STORAGE SPACE
• EVP FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $311k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-286 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (13.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (16.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $259k (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.0% in Freeport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#520 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Walton (rural): math 62% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #10 of 73 in FL (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Freeport Elementary School (math 50% / reading 57%, grade C, #949 of 2,144 statewide, top 45%, 1,123 students, 55% FRL); Freeport Senior High School (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #138 of 667 statewide, top 21%, 557 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 1012 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,883 units permitted in Walton County in 2024 (1,322 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Walton County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($283k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $259,012 (16.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.21%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-72,500
• Equity at exit: $46,335

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-102,246
• Equity at exit: $26,869

Cash invested: $87,013 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32439

• Home prices YoY: -4.2%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 1012
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,590 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,630
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$388 /mo · $4,661/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$59
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$544
• Net cashflow: $-286

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,952

Max offer price $269,432

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,690
• Closing costs: $9,323
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
215 Hydrangea Blvd Freeport, FL	3.0	2.0	1854	$2,495	$1.35	21d	1	0.24mi
692 Alleyoak Ln Defuniak Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1776	$2,500	$1.41	21d	1	0.52mi
664 Alleyoak Ln Defuniak Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1634	$2,600	$1.59	21d	1	0.56mi
530 Alleyoak Ln Defuniak Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1711	$2,500	$1.46	21d	1	0.62mi
593 Alleyoak Ln Freeport, FL	3.0	2.0	1634	$2,600	$1.59	21d	1	0.64mi
585 Claudia Cir Freeport, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1082	$2,040	$1.89	21d	47	0.73mi
36 Gray Owl Dr E Freeport, FL	4.0	2.0	2108	$2,800	$1.33	21d	1	1.11mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $59 · $708/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-03
   price $310,761
3. 2026-03-25
   price $313,900
4. 2026-01-12
   listed $323,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,081
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,407
• − Property taxes: −$4,661
• − Insurance: −$3,056
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,487
• − Management: −$2,487
• − HOA: −$708
• − Depreciation: −$9,040
• Taxable loss: −$8,765
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,104
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,324/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Walton
• NCES district ID: 1201980
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,794
• Composite: 52.03/100
• National rank: #1634
• State rank: #10 of 73 in FL

Livability — Freeport

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #520
• US rank: #9579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Walton County · 70,839 people
• City population: 15,328
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• Population (ZIP): 15,328
• Household income: $83,227
• Rent vs Own: 19.9% rent · 80.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Walton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,014 people
• By 2030: 88,120 · +10.1%
• By 2040: 103,537 · +29.4%
• By 2050: 117,034 · +46.3%
• By 2075: 143,901 · +79.8%
• By 2100: 155,138 · +93.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 8% Native American 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Walton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.8) · D 20.7% · R 78.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.0pp toward R · 2008: -45.8pp · 2024: -57.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.8 2020: R+51.7 2016: R+56.1 2012: R+52.0 2008: R+45.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.18%
• Current HPI: 350.4692
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.40%
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-4.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Pending — ECAR
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $310,761 ECAR
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $313,900 ECAR
• 2026-01-12 Listed $323,900 ECAR