21621 Sandia Rd #150 · Apple Valley, CA 92308

$205,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,386 sqft · Manufactured · 142 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition $148/sqft · 82% above area ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BRAND NEW NEVER BEEN LIVED IN 3 bedroom, 2 bath home with 2 CAR GARAGE. MOUNTAIN VIEW VILLAS, gated senior 55+ community. This prestigious resort style living is offering one of the final opportunities to own a brand new home to a lucky few. This manufactured home will come with a 1 year home warranty, with window treatments, quality cabinetry throughout, laminate flooring, full size fridge, microwave, dishwasher, garbage disposal, & huge single sink. This is all owner occupied homes, no renter's with park rent only $786. There is a private clubhouse pool, spa, workout room, card room, full banquet style kitchen. A doggy park is available for your fur babies and RV storage upon availability. The Jess Ranch Market Place is minutes away for major shopping and entertainment. Just approximately 90 Minutes from LA & Orange Co. DEALER HAS A PREFERRED LENDER WITH AS LOW AS 5% DOWN. SELLER WILL CREDIT 3 MONTHS FREE SPACE RENT OR MAY BUY DOWN INTEREST RATE. Dealer#1254134, SP1578710.HOME Serial #CAV110AZ24-22052A/B

Key facts

• Mountain view villas
• Private clubhouse
• Doggy park

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEW VILLAS
• GATED SENIOR COMMUNITY
• PRIVATE CLUBHOUSE
• DOGGY PARK
• RV STORAGE
• MINUTES FROM SHOPPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $205k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $165 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (2.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.5% in Apple Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#532 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute B+; Watch: employment D+, crime D-, amenities F.
• Apple Valley Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #955 of 1,400 in CA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Vanguard Preparatory (1,135 students, 69% FRL); Apple Valley High (2,206 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 429 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.45%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $112,729
• List price: $205,000
• Delta: 81.85%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21621 Sandia #83	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+5%)	3mo	$100,000	$69	87
21621 Sandia Rd #163	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,386 (0%)	14mo	$150,000	$108	87
21621 Sandia Rd #127	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-6%)	4mo	$155,000	$119	85
21621 Sandia Rd #95	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-6%)	6mo	$139,000	$107	83
21621 Sandia Rd #92	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-3%)	14mo	$119,000	$89	81
21621 Sandia Rd #32	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-6%)	10mo	$105,000	$81	79
21621 Sandia Rd #105	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+4%)	12mo	$144,900	$101	76
21621 Sandia Rd #57	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+13%)	1mo	$112,000	$71	75
21621-100 Sandia Rd	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-8%)	12mo	$115,000	$90	74
21621 Sandia Rd #42	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-10%)	8mo	$110,000	$88	70
21621 Sandia Rd #39	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+13%)	9mo	$105,000	$67	69
21621 Sandia Rd #98	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,204 (-13%)	12mo	$121,000	$100	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-20,033
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $7,380
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92308

• Home prices YoY: -28.8%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 429
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,002 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$256 /mo · $3,075/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $165

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,793

Max offer price $205,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $307	-5% $236	+0% $165	+5% $94	+10% $23
Rent	-10% $7	-5% $86	+0% $165	+5% $244	+10% $323
Rate	-1.0pp $268	-0.5pp $217	base $165	+0.5pp $112	+1.0pp $58

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11255 Mohawk Rd Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	1147	$1,950	$1.70	45d	1	0.54mi
11515 Chimayo Rd Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1471	$2,250	$1.53	45d	1	0.68mi
21490 Bear Valley Rd Apt A Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	875	$1,595	$1.82	22d	1	0.71mi
11045 Kiowa Rd Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	1147	$1,825	$1.59	26d	1	1.06mi
12406 Pawnee Rd Apple Valley, CA	3.0	1.5	1488	$2,200	$1.48	18d	1	1.11mi
12212 Kiowa Rd Unit 4 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	990	$1,700	$1.72	7d	1	1.17mi
21777 Panoche Rd Unit 4 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	930	$1,400	$1.51	4d	1	1.17mi
21777 Panoche Rd Unit 5 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	930	$1,450	$1.56	7d	1	1.17mi
10868 Kiowa Rd Unit D Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	1d	1	1.23mi
21181 Balsa St Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1080	$2,500	$2.31	45d	1	1.34mi
10547 Cochiti Rd Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	927	$1,649	$1.78	45d	1	1.37mi
12401 Tesuque Rd Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1506	$2,245	$1.49	45d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,000 Active 142 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,000 Active 141 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,000 Active 139 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,000 Active 138 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,000 Active 135 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $205,000 Active 134 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $205,000 Active 133 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $205,000 Active 130 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $205,000 Active 129 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $205,000 Active 128 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $205,000 Active 127 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,000 Active 126 DOM
13. 2026-01-25
    listed $205,000 Active 1032-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1032 chars)

    BRAND NEW NEVER BEEN LIVED IN 3 bedroom, 2 bath home with 2 CAR GARAGE. MOUNTAIN VIEW VILLAS, gated senior 55+ community. This prestigious resort style living is offering one of the final opportunities to own a brand new home to a lucky few. This manufactured home will come with a 1 year home warranty, with window treatments, quality cabinetry throughout, laminate flooring, full size fridge, microwave, dishwasher, garbage disposal, & huge single sink. This is all owner occupied homes, no renter's with park rent only $786. There is a private clubhouse pool, spa, workout room, card room, full banquet style kitchen. A doggy park is available for your fur babies and RV storage upon availability. The Jess Ranch Market Place is minutes away for major shopping and entertainment. Just approximately 90 Minutes from LA & Orange Co. DEALER HAS A PREFERRED LENDER WITH AS LOW AS 5% DOWN. SELLER WILL CREDIT 3 MONTHS FREE SPACE RENT OR MAY BUY DOWN INTEREST RATE. Dealer#1254134, SP1578710.HOME Serial #CAV110AZ24-22052A/B

14. 2025-12-31
    historical
15. 2025-07-28
    price $210,000
16. 2025-02-10
    listed $220,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone D · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,025
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$3,075
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,922
• − Management: −$1,922
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$1,366
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$328
• After-tax cash flow: $2,307/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This brand new, move-in-ready manufactured home in a gated senior community offers a pristine living environment with no immediate repairs or maintenance needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Painting — Fresh paint can make the home more appealing
• Both Window treatments — Improves aesthetics and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Painting — Fresh paint can make the home more appealing ↑
• Both Window treatments — Improves aesthetics and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apple Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600017
• Math proficiency: 25% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,264
• Composite: 30.91/100
• National rank: #11351
• State rank: #955 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Apple Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #532
• US rank: #17800

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apple Valley, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 83,889
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 42,709
• Household income: $66,568
• Rent vs Own: 28.5% rent · 71.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1389.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 19% Black 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Iranian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 20% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.60%
• Current HPI: 359.2305
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.30%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-6.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-25 Listed $205,000 CRMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-07-28 Price Changed $210,000 CRMLS
• 2025-02-10 Listed $220,000 CRMLS