3923 N Coconino Ave · Florence, AZ 85132

$199,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 269 Days on market

Built 1983 5,538 sqft lot $160/sqft · at area comps Est $204k · at est. $50/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• ARV discount +8.3/15.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home is open and spacious feeling. WOW, the VIEWS are beautiful! This 2 bedroom 2 bath furnished home has a beautiful remodeled kitchen with granite counter tops, newer cabinets, stainless appliances. Brand new central Air conditioning! The home was replumbed with PEX plumbing. The bedrooms are oversized and comfortable. The laundry room has a planning desk area and front loading washer and dryer. A large patio area to enjoy this quiet street and the views. Large patio doors out the back to enjoy the sunrise vies as well. This home is a must see!

Key facts

• Newer cabinets
• Laundry room
• Remodeled kitchen

Tags

• REMODELED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTER TOPS
• NEWER CABINETS
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• REPLUMBED WITH PEX PLUMBING
• LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-62 ($-743/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $189k (5.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (26.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $147k (26.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.2% in Florence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#187 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Florence Unified School District (4437) (rural): math 16% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #178 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 714 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 269 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $49k; list at $200k implies a 308% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $146,909 (26.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 269 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.33%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $203,616
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -1.83%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3914 N Florence Blvd	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,248 (0%)	0mo	$205,000	$164	94
808 E Pennsylvania Ave	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,249 (+0%)	2mo	$196,500	$157	92
910 E Yuma Ct	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,249 (+0%)	6mo	$215,000	$172	90
3809 N Ohio Ave	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,249 (+0%)	4mo	$199,900	$160	78
811 E Lancaster Cir	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,345 (+8%)	4mo	$181,000	$135	78
3704 N Florence Blvd	0.54mi	2/2.0	1,249 (+0%)	5mo	$159,900	$128	71
3822 N Illinois Ave	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,345 (+8%)	5mo	$232,000	$172	70
800 E Mississippi St	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,260 (+1%)	3mo	$210,000	$167	68
3731 N Kansas Ave	0.60mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,249 (+0%)	2mo	$195,000	$156	65
3815 N Illinois Ave	0.30mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,089 (-13%)	3mo	$195,000	$179	53
3721 N Iowa Ave	0.67mi	2/2.0	1,345 (+8%)	5mo	$199,900	$149	52
3822 N Iowa Ave	0.56mi	2/2.0	1,429 (+14%)	2mo	$280,000	$196	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-38,923
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-49,239
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85132

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 714
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,469 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $490/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $-62

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,547

Max offer price $188,969

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
308 Lancaster Ct Unit 1 Florence, AZ	2.0	1.0	841	$1,295	$1.54	44d	1	0.45mi
3722 N South Dakota Ave Florence, AZ	1.0	1.0	721	$1,100	$1.53	44d	1	0.50mi
3611 N Michigan Ave Florence, AZ	2.0	1.5	1441	$1,600	$1.11	44d	1	0.72mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 269 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 268 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 267 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 266 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 264 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 263 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 260 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 259 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,900 Active 258 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,900 Active 255 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 254 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 253 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 252 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 251 DOM
15. 2026-04-22
    price $199,900 558-char remark

    Show marketing remark (558 chars)

    This home is open and spacious feeling. WOW, the VIEWS are beautiful! This 2 bedroom 2 bath furnished home has a beautiful remodeled kitchen with granite counter tops, newer cabinets, stainless appliances. Brand new central Air conditioning! The home was replumbed with PEX plumbing. The bedrooms are oversized and comfortable. The laundry room has a planning desk area and front loading washer and dryer. A large patio area to enjoy this quiet street and the views. Large patio doors out the back to enjoy the sunrise vies as well. This home is a must see!

16. 2026-01-27
    price $207,900 558-char remark

    Show marketing remark (558 chars)

    This home is open and spacious feeling. WOW, the VIEWS are beautiful! This 2 bedroom 2 bath furnished home has a beautiful remodeled kitchen with granite counter tops, newer cabinets, stainless appliances. Brand new central Air conditioning! The home was replumbed with PEX plumbing. The bedrooms are oversized and comfortable. The laundry room has a planning desk area and front loading washer and dryer. A large patio area to enjoy this quiet street and the views. Large patio doors out the back to enjoy the sunrise vies as well. This home is a must see!

17. 2025-09-22
    listed $222,500 Active 558-char remark

    Show marketing remark (558 chars)

    This home is open and spacious feeling. WOW, the VIEWS are beautiful! This 2 bedroom 2 bath furnished home has a beautiful remodeled kitchen with granite counter tops, newer cabinets, stainless appliances. Brand new central Air conditioning! The home was replumbed with PEX plumbing. The bedrooms are oversized and comfortable. The laundry room has a planning desk area and front loading washer and dryer. A large patio area to enjoy this quiet street and the views. Large patio doors out the back to enjoy the sunrise vies as well. This home is a must see!

18. 1988-04-08
    soldstatus $49,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $490 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,319 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: +$829/yr (+$69/mo · 169.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥112°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,629
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$490
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,410
• − Management: −$1,410
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$4,294
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,031
• After-tax cash flow: $288/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Florence Unified School District (4437)
• NCES district ID: 0402920
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,426
• Composite: 18.31/100
• National rank: #8950
• State rank: #178 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Florence

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #187
• US rank: #19483

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Florence, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 38,671
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 38,671
• Household income: $79,000
• Rent vs Own: 13.6% rent · 86.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 102.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 9% Black 7% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Portuguese 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 17% German/W. Germanic 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.75%
• Current HPI: 233.6644
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.27%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+308.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $199,900 ARMLS
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $207,900 ARMLS
• 2025-09-22 Listed $222,500 ARMLS
• 1988-04-08 Sold (Public Records) $49,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $490 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.