11586 Azalea Trce · Gulfport, MS 39503

$265,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,842 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 2006 9,583 sqft lot Est $274k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• ARV discount +9.1/15.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss this beautifully upgraded home in Azalea Trace! This 3/2/1,746 SF home features high ceilings, master suite with whirlpool tub, gas fireplace, chicago brick floors, granite, an AMAZING remodeled back patio for entertaining guests and much more. Quiet area, yet minutes from shopping and entertainment!

Key facts

• Brick residence
• Gas fireplace
• Non-flood zone

Tags

• BRICK RESIDENCE
• NON-FLOOD ZONE
• HIGH CEILINGS
• CHICAGO BRICK FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• GAS FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Curbs; Near entertainment

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Driveway; Garage door opener; On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single Family Residence; House; One level
• Construction: Brick veneer construction; Architectural shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built (year per public records)
• Exterior features: Patio; Garden; Rain gutters; Front yard fencing; Fenced lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Oven; Stone counters
• Flooring: Brick; Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and natural gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; High ceilings; Stone counters; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments; Fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-49 ($-593/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (3.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (25.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $197k (25.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.9% in Gulfport — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#15 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Harrison County School District (rural): math 52% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #14 of 130 in MS (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: West Harrison Middle School (653 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 62% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 763 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,194 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harrison County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $165k; list at $265k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,113 (25.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.80%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $274,458
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17103 Gina Ln	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,875 (+2%)	2mo	$246,330	$131	66
18080 Lakeshore Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,848 (+0%)	4mo	$285,650	$155	63
12214 Stone Rd	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,676 (-9%)	4mo	$239,000	$143	63
18081 Lakeshore Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,848 (+0%)	5mo	$290,555	$157	63
18123 Lakeshore Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,848 (+0%)	8mo	$286,600	$155	59
18105 Lakeshore Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,848 (+0%)	8mo	$285,985	$155	59
18119 Evergreen Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,878 (+2%)	1mo	$279,900	$149	58
18099 Lakeshore Dr	0.64mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,851 (+0%)	3mo	$285,010	$154	56
11298 Cypress Bayou Dr	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,989 (+8%)	6mo	$149,000	$75	42
18017 Green Leaves Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,624 (-12%)	7mo	$235,000	$145	42
18062 Lake Vista Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,600 (-13%)	1mo	$225,000	$141	41
11426 Oak Aly	0.62mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,092 (+14%)	8mo	$292,665	$140	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-37,965
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-879
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39503

• Home prices YoY: -21.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 763
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,971 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,278/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $-49

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,034

Max offer price $256,275

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $101	-5% $26	+0% $-49	+5% $-124	+10% $-199
Rent	-10% $-205	-5% $-127	+0% $-49	+5% $28	+10% $106
Rate	-1.0pp $84	-0.5pp $18	base $-49	+0.5pp $-118	+1.0pp $-188

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11571 Caroline Ct Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1950	$2,000	$1.03	44d	1	0.12mi
11604 Caroline Ct Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1660	$1,850	$1.11	45d	1	0.16mi
18052 Green Leaves Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1485	$1,800	$1.21	21d	1	0.67mi
11415 Oak Alley Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,975	$1.32	14d	1	0.68mi
17986 Restoration Cir Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.5	1730	$2,100	$1.21	14d	1	0.81mi
10749 Chapelwood Dr Gulfport, MS	4.0	2.5	2306	$2,250	$0.98	44d	1	1.02mi
18137 Canal Junction Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1413	$1,750	$1.24	44d	1	1.03mi
11601 Oaklane Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,525	$0.97	14d	1	1.03mi
10667 Wren Grv Gulfport, MS	4.0	3.0	2076	$2,850	$1.37	44d	1	1.20mi
12237 Vada Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	1.0	1350	$1,349	$1.00	14d	1	1.22mi
13415 John Clark Rd Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	2067	$2,090	$1.01	44d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-02
   days on market $265,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $265,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $265,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-05-30
   remarks 687-char remark
5. 2026-05-30
   listed $265,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,278 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,094 · $174/mo
• Expected delta: +$816/yr (+$68/mo · 63.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,654
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$1,278
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,892
• − Management: −$1,892
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$5,287
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,269
• After-tax cash flow: $676/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801770
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,504
• Composite: 41.66/100
• National rank: #3419
• State rank: #14 of 130 in MS

Livability — Gulfport

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #5010

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harrison County · 178,171 people
• City population: 96,188
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 55,059
• Household income: $62,641
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1686.0

Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,444 people
• By 2030: 241,942 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 267,531 · +17.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +27.4%
• By 2075: 346,711 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 378,165 · +65.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 27% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.9) · D 35.0% · R 63.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.9 2020: R+25.2 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.39%
• Current HPI: 187.285
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.99%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+39.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listed $265,000 MLSU
• 2021-09-15 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2017-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $165,300 Public Records
• 2017-09-29 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2017-08-17 Listed $184,900 MLSU
• 2013-07-11 Listed $174,500 MLSU
• 2006-03-10 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2005-10-29 Listed $189,970 MLSU

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,278 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.