138 S Pecan Dr · Texas City, TX 77591

$150,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,180 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1976 8,232 sqft lot $127/sqft · 7% below area Est $148k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 138 S Pecan Drive, where comfort, charm, and everyday living come together beautifully. Nestled in a quiet, established neighborhood in the heart of Texas City, this inviting single-story home offers the perfect blend of warmth, functionality, and opportunity. Step inside to a cozy and welcoming layout designed for both relaxation and connection. Natural light fills the living spaces, creating an airy feel that’s perfect for everyday living or entertaining guests. Situated on a spacious lot, the oversized backyard offers endless possibilities—whether you envision weekend barbecues, outdoor entertaining, or simply enjoying peaceful Texas evenings under the open sky. Th

Key facts

• Oversized backyard
• 8,232 sq ft lot
• Garage

Tags

• QUIET ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD
• OVERSIZED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Gutters

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Driveway parking; Garage (1 space)
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Asphalt road access
• Home design: Residential property; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built in 1976; Composition roof
• Construction: Wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Fenced yard (partial, backyard fenced); Front porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (10 x 18); Bedroom on first floor (10 x 12); Bedroom on first floor (10 x 10); Three total rooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Thermostat (energy efficient)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; Ventilation for improved indoor air quality
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $126 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.3% in Texas City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#907 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Texas City ISD (suburban): math 28% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #655 of 826 in TX (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 240 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.50%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $148,225
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: 1.20%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
607 Rosedale St	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,169 (-1%)	11mo	$174,900	$150	62
619 Avenue B	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,235 (+5%)	7mo	$129,999	$105	62
5101 Burr Oak Ln	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,157 (-2%)	18mo	$159,000	$137	62
614 Azalea Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,208 (+2%)	15mo	$169,900	$141	61
411 Honeysuckle Dr	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,118 (-5%)	14mo	$139,970	$125	58
616 Benson St	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,218 (+3%)	14mo	$150,000	$123	56
401 Honeysuckle Dr	0.52mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,274 (+8%)	3mo	$85,000	$67	55
410 Wisteria St	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,250 (+6%)	10mo	$82,500	$66	54
609 Bluebonnet Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,212 (+3%)	18mo	$109,000	$90	53
316 Avenue B	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,354 (+15%)	2mo	$170,000	$126	49
824 Chestnut	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,224 (+4%)	18mo	$169,999	$139	42
400 Chip St	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,350 (+14%)	14mo	$190,000	$141	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-13,405
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $10,845
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77591

• Home prices YoY: -5.6%
• Rents YoY: 4.7%
• Active inventory: 240
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,624 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$241 /mo · $2,898/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $126

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,465

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4417 Edward St Texas City, TX	2.0	2.0	983	$1,150	$1.17	2d	1	0.18mi
4417 Edward St Texas City, TX	2.0	2.0	983	$1,100	$1.12	4d	1	0.18mi
113 N Pecan Dr Texas City, TX	4.0	2.0	1468	$3,000	$2.04	44d	1	0.22mi
711 Avenue A Unit 4 La Marque, TX	2.0	1.0	750	$799	$1.07	44d	1	0.50mi
509 Bluebonnet Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	1.0	1223	$1,550	$1.27	44d	1	0.56mi
203 Beatrice St La Marque, TX	3.0	1.0	1304	$1,395	$1.07	24d	1	0.58mi
309 S Bell Dr Texas City, TX	2.0	2.0	1316	$1,650	$1.25	44d	1	0.88mi
619 N Vionett Ln Texas City, TX	3.0	2.0	1204	$1,550	$1.29	5d	1	0.99mi
1115 Highway 146 N Texas City, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	757	$1,350	$1.78	1d	9	1.01mi
2328 Boss St La Marque, TX	2.0	1.0	848	$925	$1.09	12d	2	1.09mi
306 Lake Rd Unit B La Marque, TX	2.0	1.0	816	$995	$1.22	44d	1	1.14mi
3404 9th Ave N Texas City, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	721	$1,525	$2.11	2d	34	1.15mi
1013 Margot St La Marque, TX	3.0	2.0	1099	$1,500	$1.36	19d	1	1.42mi
3106 Danforth Dr Texas City, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	24d	1	1.45mi
1825 Bayou Rd La Marque, TX	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,195	$1.00	44d	1	1.46mi
222 Ruslee St La Marque, TX	3.0	1.0	849	$1,350	$1.59	17d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $150,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $150,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $150,000 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $150,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $150,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $150,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-05-04
   listed $150,000 Active 953-char remark
10. 2026-04-28
    historical
11. 2026-04-27
    listed $150,000 Active
12. 2026-04-06
    historical
13. 2026-03-19
    price $165,000
14. 2026-03-02
    price $175,000
15. 2026-02-24
    listed $185,000 Active
16. 2016-08-12
    soldstatus Sold
17. 2016-08-12
    soldstatus
18. 2016-07-22
    status Pending
19. 2016-07-15
    status Option Pending
20. 2016-06-29
    listed $98,400 Active
21. 2015-09-08
    soldstatus Sold
22. 2015-08-26
    status Pending
23. 2015-06-26
    listed $45,900 Active
24. 2014-02-25
    historical
25. 2013-09-12
    listed $54,900
26. 2013-08-23
    historical
27. 2013-05-28
    listed $59,500
28. 2005-04-20
    soldstatus
29. 2004-11-30
    historical
30. 2004-05-28
    listed $69,900
31. 2004-02-04
    soldstatus
32. 2003-11-18
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,898 · $241/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,898 · $241/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,490
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,898
• − Insurance: −$1,547
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,559
• − Management: −$1,559
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$839
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$201
• After-tax cash flow: $1,714/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Texas City ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842510
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,875
• Composite: 24.47/100
• National rank: #7664
• State rank: #655 of 826 in TX

Livability — Texas City

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #907
• US rank: #16268

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Texas City, TX
• County: Galveston County · 357,330 people
• City population: 49,936
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,294
• Household income: $68,593
• Rent vs Own: 44.6% rent · 55.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 718.0

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 50% White 26% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -14.63%
• Current HPI: 247.1905
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.67%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+114.6% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-24 Listed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2016-08-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-08-12 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2016-07-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-07-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-06-29 Listed $98,400 HARMLS
• 2015-09-08 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2015-08-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-06-26 Listed $45,900 HARMLS
• 2014-02-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2013-09-12 Listed $54,900 HARMLS
• 2013-08-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2013-05-28 Listed $59,500 HARMLS
• 2005-04-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-11-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2004-05-28 Listed $69,900 HARMLS
• 2004-02-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-11-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,898 · +11.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.