2650 W Union Hills Dr #272 · Phoenix, AZ 85027

$19,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 880 sqft · Manufactured · 474 Days on market

Built 1973 $23/sqft · 50% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming home in the +55 gated Friendly Village of Orangewood! Cul De Sac location. Updated home offering 2 beds, 1 bath, carport parking space. Inside offers large Living area, charming kitchen, updated flooring and carpet and freshly painted with neutral colors. Updated Water Heater. Cold AC. Laundry inside. Storage shed. Covered outdoor space to enjoy evenings. Neighborhood offers golf course, clubhouse, community pool, billiards, shuffleboard, library, RV & boat storage. Move in Ready! ASK ABOUT FINANCING OPTIONS.

Key facts

• Cul de sac location
• Community pool
• Storage shed

Tags

• CUL DE SAC LOCATION
• UPDATED WATER HEATER
• LAUNDRY INSIDE
• STORAGE SHED
• COVERED OUTDOOR SPACE
• COMMUNITY POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $20k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $996 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $20k).
• Recommended offer: $18k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 66.3% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Deer Valley Unified District (4246) (urban): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #33 of 249 in AZ (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.8%/yr); 169 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $138 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $597 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 474 days — a 12% lower offer ($18k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $17,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 474 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 66.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 214.45%
• DSCR: 10.54
• GRM: 1.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $39,965
• List price: $19,900
• Delta: -50.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2650 W Union Hills Dr #29	0.00mi	2/2.0	896 (+2%)	8mo	$42,500	$47	86
2650 W Union Hills Dr #50	0.05mi	2/2.0	868 (-1%)	7mo	$40,500	$47	85
2650 W Union Hills Dr #329	0.00mi	2/2.0	896 (+2%)	14mo	$72,000	$80	82
2650 W Union Hills Dr #245	0.17mi	1/1.0 (-1)	840 (-4%)	10mo	$35,000	$42	71
2650 W Union Hills Dr #366	0.00mi	2/2.0	960 (+9%)	16mo	$73,900	$77	68
2650 W Union Hills Dr #263	0.01mi	2/2.0	780 (-11%)	17mo	$38,000	$49	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.05×
• Total profit: $56,014
• Equity at exit: $2,967

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 21.51×
• Total profit: $114,281
• Equity at exit: $1,721

Cash invested: $5,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85027

• Rents YoY: -2.8%
• Active inventory: 169
• Price-to-rent: 1.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,435 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$104
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$25 /mo · $298/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $996

Break-even live

Break-even rent $174

Max offer price $19,900

Occupancy floor 26%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,975
• Closing costs: $597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18410 N 27th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	600	$1,051	$1.75	24d	1	0.29mi
18250 N 25th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	992	$1,712	$1.73	2d	17	0.43mi
2929 W Yorkshire Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	915	$1,498	$1.64	18d	2	0.46mi
17840 N Black Canyon Hwy Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	880	$1,655	$1.88	2d	19	0.57mi
3010 W Yorkshire Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,444	$1.48	1d	80	0.59mi
2039 W Union Hills Dr Unit 39-117 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	7d	1	0.73mi
2039 W Union Hills Dr Unit 15-001 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,345	$1.22	15d	1	0.73mi
2039 W Union Hills Dr Unit 39-143 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,345	$1.22	7d	1	0.73mi
2039 W Union Hills Dr Unit 15-204 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,245	$1.25	15d	1	0.73mi
2020 W Union Hills Dr #254 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1049	$1,650	$1.57	43d	1	0.76mi
19940 N 23rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	4.0	1.0–2.0	812	$1,374	$1.69	1d	69	0.82mi
3144 W Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1085	$1,845	$1.70	16d	1	0.83mi
18626 N 34th Ave #2 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5	570	$1,595	$2.80	43d	1	0.88mi
3411 W Morrow Dr #3 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.5	1056	$1,495	$1.42	43d	1	0.91mi
20003 N 23rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	620	$1,132	$1.83	21d	1	0.93mi
20003 N 23rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	860	$1,440	$1.67	23d	1	0.93mi
20003 N 23rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	860	$1,522	$1.77	43d	1	0.93mi
18811 N 19th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	885	$1,525	$1.72	1d	2	1.06mi
18811 N 19th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	749	$1,135	$1.52	2d	2	1.06mi
2222 W Beardsley Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	616	$1,285	$2.09	1d	32	1.08mi
20231 N 21st Ln Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	770	$995	$1.29	24d	1	1.13mi
20245 N 32nd Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	834	$1,530	$1.83	3d	14	1.16mi
20808 N 27th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,548	$1.61	2d	14	1.20mi
3202 W Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	719	$1,299	$1.81	1d	34	1.24mi
17609 N 19th Ave Unit 204 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	935	$1,199	$1.28	43d	1	1.27mi
17609 N 19th Ave Apt 107 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	935	$1,325	$1.42	2d	1	1.28mi
17216 N 33rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	741	$1,525	$2.06	2d	20	1.29mi
17609 N 19th Ave Unit 209 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	935	$1,099	$1.18	24d	1	1.29mi
3420 W Danbury Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	810	$1,485	$1.83	24d	2	1.36mi
3420 W Danbury Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	810	$1,485	$1.83	12d	2	1.36mi
20601 N 33rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1085	$2,100	$1.94	24d	1	1.36mi
3434 W Danbury Dr Unit A114 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	896	$1,485	$1.66	24d	1	1.37mi
17211 N 35th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	827	$1,500	$1.81	18d	2	1.37mi
2142 W Monona Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,790	$1.64	21d	1	1.40mi
17211 N 35th Ave Unit A213 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	758	$1,495	$1.97	43d	1	1.41mi
17425 N 19th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	776	$1,327	$1.71	1d	40	1.41mi
17239 N 19th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	801	$1,221	$1.52	1d	32	1.49mi
20401 N 19th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	834	$1,655	$1.98	1d	13	1.49mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $19,900 Active 474 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $19,900 Active 473 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $19,900 Active 472 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $19,900 Active 471 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $19,900 Active 469 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $19,900 Active 468 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $19,900 Active 465 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $19,900 Active 464 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $19,900 Active 463 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $19,900 Active 460 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $19,900 Active 459 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $19,900 Active 458 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $19,900 Active 457 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $19,900 Active 456 DOM
15. 2026-03-28
    price $19,900 543-char remark

    Show marketing remark (543 chars)

    Welcome to this charming home in the +55 gated Friendly Village of Orangewood! Cul De Sac location. Updated home offering 2 beds, 1 bath, carport parking space. Inside offers large Living area, charming kitchen, updated flooring and carpet and freshly painted with neutral colors. Updated Water Heater. Cold AC. Laundry inside. Storage shed. Covered outdoor space to enjoy evenings. Neighborhood offers golf course, clubhouse, community pool, billiards, shuffleboard, library, RV & boat storage. Move in Ready! ASK ABOUT FINANCING OPTIONS.

16. 2026-02-08
    price $29,000 543-char remark

    Show marketing remark (543 chars)

    Welcome to this charming home in the +55 gated Friendly Village of Orangewood! Cul De Sac location. Updated home offering 2 beds, 1 bath, carport parking space. Inside offers large Living area, charming kitchen, updated flooring and carpet and freshly painted with neutral colors. Updated Water Heater. Cold AC. Laundry inside. Storage shed. Covered outdoor space to enjoy evenings. Neighborhood offers golf course, clubhouse, community pool, billiards, shuffleboard, library, RV & boat storage. Move in Ready! ASK ABOUT FINANCING OPTIONS.

17. 2025-12-29
    price $39,900 543-char remark

    Show marketing remark (543 chars)

    Welcome to this charming home in the +55 gated Friendly Village of Orangewood! Cul De Sac location. Updated home offering 2 beds, 1 bath, carport parking space. Inside offers large Living area, charming kitchen, updated flooring and carpet and freshly painted with neutral colors. Updated Water Heater. Cold AC. Laundry inside. Storage shed. Covered outdoor space to enjoy evenings. Neighborhood offers golf course, clubhouse, community pool, billiards, shuffleboard, library, RV & boat storage. Move in Ready! ASK ABOUT FINANCING OPTIONS.

18. 2025-03-01
    listed $49,900 Active 543-char remark

    Show marketing remark (543 chars)

    Welcome to this charming home in the +55 gated Friendly Village of Orangewood! Cul De Sac location. Updated home offering 2 beds, 1 bath, carport parking space. Inside offers large Living area, charming kitchen, updated flooring and carpet and freshly painted with neutral colors. Updated Water Heater. Cold AC. Laundry inside. Storage shed. Covered outdoor space to enjoy evenings. Neighborhood offers golf course, clubhouse, community pool, billiards, shuffleboard, library, RV & boat storage. Move in Ready! ASK ABOUT FINANCING OPTIONS.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥111°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,214
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,115
• − Property taxes: −$298
• − Insurance: −$100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,377
• − Management: −$1,377
• − Depreciation: −$579
• Taxable income: $12,369
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,968
• After-tax cash flow: $8,981/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Deer Valley Unified District (4246)
• NCES district ID: 0407750
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $72,516
• Composite: 47.0/100
• National rank: #2346
• State rank: #33 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 39,487
• Household income: $76,605
• Rent vs Own: 43.5% rent · 56.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1533.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 13% Asian 7% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -248.58%
• Current HPI: 356.8851
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.75%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-60.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $19,900 ARMLS
• 2026-02-08 Price Changed $29,000 ARMLS
• 2025-12-29 Price Changed $39,900 ARMLS
• 2025-03-01 Listed $49,900 ARMLS