16 Settlers Landing Ln · Northwest Harbor, NY 11937

$1,450,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,510 sqft · SingleFamily · 187 Days on market

Built 1978 0.46 ac lot $960/sqft · 26% below area Est $1947k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Renovate or start fresh on this .5 acre lot in Settlers Landing. This 4 bedroom, 2 bath home has a living room, eat-in-kitchen, separate dining room and family room with fireplace and sliding doors leading out to a deck. Plenty of room for a pool on this shy half acre lot near Sammy's Beach, and also features an attached one car garage. Within close proximity to beach and minutes from East Hampton village.

Key facts

• .5 acre lot
• Eat-in-kitchen
• Separate dining room

Tags

• .5 ACRE LOT
• LIVING ROOM
• EAT-IN-KITCHEN
• SEPARATE DINING ROOM
• FAMILY ROOM
• FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.45M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $10k ($119k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($23k rent vs $1.45M).
• Recommended offer: $1.28M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.5% vs local median 7.8% in Northwest Harbor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,007 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• East Hampton Union Free School District (town): math 62% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #159 of 590 in NY (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.3%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $23,428/mo this rent would consume 216% of the median local household income ($130k/yr) (locally 896% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $10k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $44k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $406k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 187 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.28M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $388k; list at $1.45M implies a 274% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $1,276,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 187 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.33%
• DSCR: 2.31
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,947,242
• List price: $1,450,000
• Delta: -25.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21 Three Mile Harbor Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-5%)	16mo	$1,597,000	$1,109	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $520,343
• Equity at exit: $216,200

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.50×
• Total profit: $1,828,306
• Equity at exit: $125,369

Cash invested: $406,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11937

• Rents YoY: 12.3%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $23,428 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,604
• Tax from tax record: −$377 /mo · $4,521/yr
• Insurance: −$604
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,920
• Net cashflow: $9,923

Break-even live

Break-even rent $10,867

Max offer price $1,450,000

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $362,500
• Closing costs: $43,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11 Deer Ln East Hampton, NY	3.0	3.0	1300	$80,000	$61.54	24d	1	0.79mi
289 Three Mile Harbor Hog Creek Rd East Hampton, NY	3.0	3.0	1600	$45,600	$28.50	44d	1	1.30mi
3 Forest Ct East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1750	$50,000	$28.57	24d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-07
   price $1,450,000 409-char remark

   Show marketing remark (409 chars)

   Renovate or start fresh on this .5 acre lot in Settlers Landing. This 4 bedroom, 2 bath home has a living room, eat-in-kitchen, separate dining room and family room with fireplace and sliding doors leading out to a deck. Plenty of room for a pool on this shy half acre lot near Sammy's Beach, and also features an attached one car garage. Within close proximity to beach and minutes from East Hampton village.

2. 2025-11-20
   listed $1,490,000 Active 409-char remark

   Show marketing remark (409 chars)

   Renovate or start fresh on this .5 acre lot in Settlers Landing. This 4 bedroom, 2 bath home has a living room, eat-in-kitchen, separate dining room and family room with fireplace and sliding doors leading out to a deck. Plenty of room for a pool on this shy half acre lot near Sammy's Beach, and also features an attached one car garage. Within close proximity to beach and minutes from East Hampton village.

3. 2024-03-01
   historical $7,100
4. 2024-01-11
   price $7,100
5. 2023-12-22
   listed $7,500
6. 2015-01-16
   soldstatus $388,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,521 · $377/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $14,513 · $1,209/mo
• Expected delta: +$9,992/yr (+$833/mo · 221.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $281,137
• − Mortgage interest: −$81,223
• − Property taxes: −$4,521
• − Insurance: −$7,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$22,491
• − Management: −$22,491
• − Depreciation: −$42,182
• Taxable income: $100,980
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$24,235
• After-tax cash flow: $94,845/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Hampton Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609660
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $86,309
• Composite: 57.85/100
• National rank: #1046
• State rank: #159 of 590 in NY

Livability — Northwest Harbor

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1007
• US rank: #19577

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Northwest Harbor, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 21,806
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 21,882
• Household income: $129,883
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 896.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 23% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -285.21%
• Current HPI: 444.1499
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.28%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+273.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $1,450,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-20 Listed $1,490,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-01 Rental Removed $7,100 ONEKEY
• 2024-01-11 Price Changed $7,100 ONEKEY
• 2023-12-22 Listed for Rent $7,500 ONEKEY
• 2015-01-16 Sold (Public Records) $388,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,521 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.