21621 Sandia Rd #31 · Apple Valley, CA 92308

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1989 Est $150k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.9/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Gated Community - Standard Sale - SELLER WILL FINANCE! * Gorgeous 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom pre-Manufactured home on permanent foundation, facing the beautifully kept "greenbelt". This beauty has recently been remodeled. You will love the fairly new wood laminate flooring, the high end carpet, and the custom neutral paint. This open floor home make the 1512SQ' of living space feel much even larger. You will love the modern kitchen (all stainless steel appliances, granite countertops and plenty of cupboards - keep the refrigerator too). Large master suite (with walkin closet and large master bathroom), indoor laundry room, ceiling fans in all bedrooms, 2 car garage, and one of the largest backyards in the whole park. Free R. V. Access, Car wash area, Clubhouse use, Pool, Spa, and so many more free park amenities. (Rent Space is only $449 Xmo. ) 55+ Mobile Park

Key facts

• Green belt
• Mountain view villas
• Good size rear yard

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEW VILLAS
• GRANITE COUNTER TOP
• ABUNDANCE OF CABINETS
• JACK AND JILL BATHROOM
• GOOD SIZE REAR YARD
• GREEN BELT

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease of $786 monthly; Land lease community
• HOA & community: Senior community; Manager approval required; Park: MOUNTAIN VIEW VILLAS; Community features include biking, dog park, hiking, and street lighting

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Garage with side entry and garage door opener
• Utilities: Private water; Private sewer (connected)
• Home design: Mobile home remains on site; Entry through gated location; Entry level: 1; Total stories: 11
• Construction: Mobile dimensions approximately 28 ft by 54 ft; Year built per assessor
• Exterior features: Front porch; Community pool; Has a patio; Greenbelt nearby; Views

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Gas range; Kitchen open to family room
• Bedrooms: All bedrooms on ground level; Jack & Jill layout
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Pantry; Open floor plan; Granite counters; Community spa
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Washer included; Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $990 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.8% vs local median 3.5% in Apple Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#532 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute B+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime D-.
• Apple Valley Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #955 of 1,400 in CA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 417 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $125k implies a 233% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,125 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.96%
• DSCR: 2.51
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $149,688
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21621 Sandia Rd #57	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+4%)	1mo	$112,000	$71	93
21621 Sandia #83	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-4%)	3mo	$100,000	$69	91
21621 Sandia Rd #39	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+3%)	9mo	$105,000	$67	87
21621 Sandia Rd #10	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+7%)	8mo	$160,000	$99	81
21621 Sandia Rd #50	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-5%)	14mo	$135,000	$94	80
21621 Sandia Rd #105	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-5%)	12mo	$144,900	$101	77
21621 Sandia Rd #163	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,386 (-8%)	14mo	$150,000	$108	75
21621 Sandia Rd #127	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-14%)	4mo	$155,000	$119	74
21621 Sandia Rd #95	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-14%)	6mo	$139,000	$107	72
21621 Sandia Rd #92	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-11%)	14mo	$119,000	$89	70
21621 Sandia Rd #32	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-14%)	10mo	$105,000	$81	68
21939 Del Oro Rd	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,584 (+5%)	14mo	$350,000	$221	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.31×
• Total profit: $45,695
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.80×
• Total profit: $133,114
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92308

• Home prices YoY: -28.8%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 417
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,196 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $442/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $990

Break-even live

Break-even rent $942

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11255 Mohawk Rd Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	1147	$1,950	$1.70	43d	1	0.63mi
11515 Chimayo Rd Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1471	$2,250	$1.53	43d	1	0.74mi
12406 Pawnee Rd Apple Valley, CA	3.0	1.5	1488	$2,200	$1.48	16d	1	1.03mi
11045 Kiowa Rd Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	1147	$1,825	$1.59	24d	1	1.14mi
12401 Tesuque Rd Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1506	$2,245	$1.49	43d	1	1.40mi
21181 Balsa St Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1080	$2,500	$2.31	43d	1	1.42mi
22544 Sioux Rd Unit 31 Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1236	$1,795	$1.45	20d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    remarks 687-char remark
15. 2026-05-31
    listed $125,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $442 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $950 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: +$508/yr (+$42/mo · 115.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone D · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,352
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$442
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,108
• − Management: −$2,108
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $10,431
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,503
• After-tax cash flow: $9,382/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apple Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600017
• Math proficiency: 25% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,264
• Composite: 30.91/100
• National rank: #11351
• State rank: #955 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Apple Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #532
• US rank: #17800

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apple Valley, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 83,889
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 42,709
• Household income: $66,568
• Rent vs Own: 28.5% rent · 71.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1389.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 19% Black 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Iranian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 20% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.60%
• Current HPI: 359.2305
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.30%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+252.1% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listed $125,000 CRMLS
• 2013-04-26 Sold (MLS) $37,500 CRMLS
• 2013-04-26 Sold (MLS) $37,500 CRMLS
• 2013-03-20 Price Changed $38,900 CRMLS
• 2013-03-01 Price Changed $40,900 CRMLS
• 2013-02-13 Price Changed $44,900 CRMLS
• 2013-02-07 Listed $49,900 CRMLS
• 2013-02-01 Listed $38,900 CRMLS
• 2010-09-22 Sold (MLS) $35,000 CRMLS
• 2000-04-21 Sold (MLS) $41,000 CRMLS
• 1998-02-09 Sold (MLS) $35,500 CRMLS

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $442 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.