3284 Frederick Douglas Rd · Exmore, VA 23350

$125,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 416 sqft · SingleFamily · 72 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This adorable and cozy one-bedroom home is sure to make you fall in love! Very high-quality features and workmanship went into creating this home. The kitchen has granite countertops and stainless-steel appliances, including a refrigerator, stove, microwave, and dishwasher. Everything you would need in a home is included, including front and back porches, a spacious step-in shower in the bathroom, and room for a stackable washer and dryer.

Key facts

• Granite countertops
• 2 parking spots
• Built 2022

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• FRONT AND BACK PORCHES
• SPACIOUS STEP-IN SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-28 ($-335/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $121k (3.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $106k (15.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $106k (15.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.2% in Exmore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#364 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Northampton County Public School District (rural): math 36% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #103 of 131 in VA (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Occohannock Elementary (math 32% / reading 57%, grade F, #827 of 1,108 statewide, top 77%, 369 students, 101% FRL); Northampton Middle (math 37% / reading 67%, grade C+, #218 of 342 statewide, top 65%, 206 students, 99% FRL); Northampton High (math 47% / reading 77%, grade B-, #231 of 319 statewide, top 75%, 433 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 68% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 164 units permitted in Northampton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Northampton County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $105,808 (15.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.96%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-22,020
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-21,402
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23350

• Home prices YoY: -3.7%
• Active inventory: 54
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,058 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$222
• Net cashflow: $-28

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $120,955

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $58	-5% $15	+0% $-28	+5% $-71	+10% $-114
Rent	-10% $-112	-5% $-70	+0% $-28	+5% $14	+10% $56
Rate	-1.0pp $35	-0.5pp $4	base $-28	+0.5pp $-60	+1.0pp $-93

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $125,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $125,000 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 52 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 51 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $125,000 Active 50 DOM
18. 2026-04-10
    historical

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    This adorable and cozy one-bedroom home is sure to make you fall in love! Very high-quality features and workmanship went into creating this home. The kitchen has granite countertops and stainless-steel appliances, including a refrigerator, stove, microwave, and dishwasher. Everything you would need in a home is included, including front and back porches, a spacious step-in shower in the bathroom, and room for a stackable washer and dryer.

19. 2026-04-10
    listed $125,000 Active 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    This adorable and cozy one-bedroom home is sure to make you fall in love! Very high-quality features and workmanship went into creating this home. The kitchen has granite countertops and stainless-steel appliances, including a refrigerator, stove, microwave, and dishwasher. Everything you would need in a home is included, including front and back porches, a spacious step-in shower in the bathroom, and room for a stackable washer and dryer.

20. 2025-10-15
    listed $132,500 Active
21. 2025-10-15
    historical
22. 2025-05-23
    listed $132,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,697
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,016
• − Management: −$1,016
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$2,473
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$593
• After-tax cash flow: $258/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This one-bedroom home is in excellent condition with high-quality features and a good curb appeal. It is move-in ready and would be a great investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Install outdoor lighting — Improves safety and enhances curb appeal
• Both Add a small garden bed — Enhances curb appeal and adds greenery

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Install outdoor lighting — Improves safety and enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both Add a small garden bed — Enhances curb appeal and adds greenery ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northampton County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102710
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -33.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $37,253
• Composite: 40.63/100
• National rank: #3687
• State rank: #103 of 131 in VA

Livability — Exmore

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #364
• US rank: #14521

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Exmore, VA
• Population (ZIP): 2,993

Population outlook (Northampton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,360 people
• By 2030: 10,838 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 9,696 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 8,764 · -22.9%
• By 2075: 6,885 · -39.4%
• By 2100: 4,891 · -56.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 43% White 42% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Danish 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Korean 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Northampton

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+6.2) · D 52.7% · R 46.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.4pp toward R · 2008: 16.5pp · 2024: 6.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+6.2 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+9.3 2012: D+16.4 2008: D+16.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -7.51%
• Current HPI: 193.2602
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-5.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $125,000 REINMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2025-10-15 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2025-10-15 Listed $132,500 REINMLS
• 2025-05-23 Listed $132,500 REINMLS

Property tax history

+17.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $49 · +17.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.