853 Uniontown Rd · Lopatcong, NJ 08865

$175,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 750 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1942 ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Needs work

Key facts

• Built 1942
• Listed 26 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $67 ($804/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (1.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lopatcong Township School District (suburban): math 24% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #239 of 472 in NJ (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lopatcong Elementary School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #471 of 1,303 statewide, top 39%, 375 students, 13% FRL); Lopatcong Township Middle School (math 21% / reading 51%, grade F, #238 of 431 statewide, top 56%, 364 students, 10% FRL) — zoned schools at 11% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 24 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 630 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (315 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Warren County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1942 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $172,375 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1942 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.64%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-21,520
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-2,407
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08865

• Rents YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 24
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,729 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$309 /mo · $3,702/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $67

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,644

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $166	-5% $117	+0% $67	+5% $17	+10% $-32
Rent	-10% $-70	-5% $-1	+0% $67	+5% $135	+10% $204
Rate	-1.0pp $155	-0.5pp $112	base $67	+0.5pp $22	+1.0pp $-24

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $175,000 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $175,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $175,000 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-26
    listed $175,000 Active
17. 2025-08-01
    soldstatus $225,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,702 · $309/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,030 · $336/mo
• Expected delta: +$328/yr (+$27/mo · 8.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 19% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,752
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$3,702
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,660
• − Management: −$1,660
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$2,039
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$489
• After-tax cash flow: $1,294/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lopatcong Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409000
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $75,388
• Composite: 34.33/100
• National rank: #5231
• State rank: #239 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Lopatcong

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Warren County · 63,532 people
• Metro: Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ
• Population (ZIP): 31,427
• Household income: $79,949
• Rent vs Own: 31.6% rent · 68.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1284.0

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,498 people
• By 2030: 103,974 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 99,748 · -5.5%
• By 2050: 94,535 · -10.4%
• By 2075: 87,220 · -17.3%
• By 2100: 80,421 · -23.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 10% Two or more races 9% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Iranian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 38.8% · R 59.5% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -14.0pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+16.2 2016: R+25.6 2012: R+15.8 2008: R+14.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -240.76%
• Current HPI: 238.2423
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.41%
• Metro: Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

-22.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $175,000 FSBO.com
• 2025-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $225,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,702 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.