25 Dolphin Rd · East Quogue, NY 11942

$1,100,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,160 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1991 0.26 ac lot Est $828k · 33% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 25 Dolphin Road — a charming coastal retreat nestled in one of East Quogue’s most desirable neighborhoods. This sun-filled home features 3 bedrooms, an open-concept layout perfect for entertaining, and a modern kitchen equipped with stainless steel appliances. Step outside to enjoy your 2-year-old private dock with direct access to the beautiful Shinnecock Bay, perfect for boating, fishing, or relaxing by the water. Comfortable and inviting, every corner of this home offers potential to make it your own. Whether you're looking for a year-round residence, weekend getaway, or smart investment, this property checks all the boxes. Enjoy the peaceful surroundings while bei

Key facts

• Private dock
• Modern kitchen
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• MODERN KITCHEN
• PRIVATE DOCK
• PEACEFUL SURROUNDINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $1.10M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($57k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($15k rent vs $1.10M).
• Recommended offer: $1.08M (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#943 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• East Quogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 55% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #342 of 755 in NY (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: East Quogue School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 355 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 15% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $8k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $33k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $308k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.08M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,083,500 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.41%
• DSCR: 1.91
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $828,240
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12 Tarpon Rd	0.22mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,120 (-3%)	10mo	$765,000	$683	71
15 Indian Run Rd	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,112 (-4%)	6mo	$1,350,000	$1,214	60
7 Bonita Rd	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,100 (-5%)	21mo	$785,000	$714	56
6 Whiting Rd	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+12%)	14mo	$899,000	$692	55
33 Dolphin Rd	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,330 (+15%)	14mo	$1,100,000	$827	52
21 Eisenhower Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,190 (+3%)	16mo	$800,000	$672	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $126,095
• Equity at exit: $164,014

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.63×
• Total profit: $501,799
• Equity at exit: $95,108

Cash invested: $308,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11942

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $15,276 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,769
• Tax from tax record: −$603 /mo · $7,237/yr
• Insurance: −$458
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$460 /mo · $5,525/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,208
• Net cashflow: $4,778

Break-even live

Break-even rent $9,228

Max offer price $1,100,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $5,401	-5% $5,089	+0% $4,778	+5% $4,466	+10% $4,155
Rent	-10% $3,571	-5% $4,174	+0% $4,778	+5% $5,381	+10% $5,985
Rate	-1.0pp $5,332	-0.5pp $5,058	base $4,778	+0.5pp $4,493	+1.0pp $4,203

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $275,000
• Closing costs: $33,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
168 W Tiana Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1004	$4,000	$3.98	44d	1	0.85mi
2 Fairview Rd Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.0	1440	$17,500	$12.15	18d	1	1.07mi
138 W Tiana Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	1.0	1040	$16,000	$15.38	11d	1	1.18mi
104 W Tiana Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	1.5	900	$15,000	$16.67	44d	1	1.28mi
4 E End Ave East Quogue, NY	3.0	1.0	976	$4,500	$4.61	44d	1	1.31mi
30 Vail Ave East Quogue, NY	3.0	2.0	1260	$38,500	$30.56	25d	1	1.41mi
22 W End Ave East Quogue, NY	3.0	2.0	1368	$16,000	$11.70	6d	1	1.41mi
73 W Tiana Rd Unit 11 Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$11,000	$11.00	44d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-01
   listed $1,100,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,237 · $603/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $12,913 · $1,076/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,677/yr (+$473/mo · 78.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 52% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $183,314
• − Mortgage interest: −$61,617
• − Property taxes: −$7,237
• − Insurance: −$11,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$14,665
• − Management: −$14,665
• − Depreciation: −$32,000
• Taxable income: $42,105
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$10,105
• After-tax cash flow: $47,229/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Quogue Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609900
• Math proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $81,457
• Composite: 49.79/100
• National rank: #4207
• State rank: #342 of 755 in NY

Livability — East Quogue

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #943
• US rank: #18348

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Quogue, NY
• City population: 5,871
• Population (ZIP): 5,871

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Asian 2% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.33%
• Current HPI: 435.8017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-01 Listed $1,100,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2022): $7,237 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.