12181 Perdido St · Lillian, AL 36549

$279,900

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,560 sqft · Manufactured · 263 Days on market

Built 2013 0.28 ac lot $109/sqft · 16% below area Est $334k · 16% under ↓ 25% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Just a short drive from Pensacola, Foley, and the sugar-white beaches of the Gulf Coast, this stunning 5-bedroom, 2-bath home in desirable Lillian Heights offers the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and coastal living. Nestled on nearly one-third of an acre, the property includes exclusive access to a private resident’s beach on Perdido Bay—just a quick stroll from your front door. Inside, you’ll find a true split floor plan with the bright and spacious secondary bedrooms tucked away on one side of the home, offering privacy from the serene primary suite. Recent upgrades—including a brand-new roof, HVAC system, hot water heater, flooring, trim, and decks—mean all that’s left to do is move in and enjoy. Love the water? You’re only 5 minutes from the Lillian Boat Launch, making this an ideal spot for boating enthusiasts. Whether it’s a quiet evening on the bay or a short trip to nearby beaches, this home puts it all within reach. Don’t miss your chance to make coastal living a reality—schedule your showing today and be ready to spend next summer at the bay!Buyer to verify all information during due diligence. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

Key facts

• Recent upgrades
• Split floor plan
• Lillian boat launch

Tags

• PRIVATE RESIDENTS BEACH
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• RECENT UPGRADES
• LILLIAN BOAT LAUNCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-182 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (11.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (31.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (31.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.1% in Lillian — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#97 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Elberta Elementary School (math 47% / reading 65%, grade C+, #83 of 627 statewide, top 13%, 884 students, 58% FRL); Elberta High School (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #47 of 305 statewide, top 17%, 784 students, 60% FRL); Foley High School (math 24% / reading 25%, grade F, #118 of 305 statewide, top 45%, 1,578 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 38% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 154 active listings in the ZIP; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 263 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,877 (31.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 263 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.77%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $333,999
• List price: $279,900
• Delta: -16.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-57,045
• Equity at exit: $41,734

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-65,035
• Equity at exit: $24,201

Cash invested: $78,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36549

• Home prices YoY: -7.6%
• Active inventory: 154
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,929 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $655/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $-182

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,159

Max offer price $247,788

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-23	-5% $-103	+0% $-182	+5% $-261	+10% $-340
Rent	-10% $-334	-5% $-258	+0% $-182	+5% $-106	+10% $-29
Rate	-1.0pp $-41	-0.5pp $-111	base $-182	+0.5pp $-254	+1.0pp $-328

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,975
• Closing costs: $8,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $279,900 Active 263 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $279,900 Active 261 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,900 Active 260 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,900 Active 259 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,900 Active 258 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,900 Active 257 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $279,900 Active 255 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,900 Active 254 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $279,900 Active 252 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $279,900 Active 251 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $279,900 Active 250 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $279,900 Active 249 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $284,450 Active 245 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $284,450 Active 244 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $284,450 Active 243 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $284,450 Active 242 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $284,450 Active 241 DOM
18. 2026-04-22
    price $284,450 1244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1244 chars)

    Just a short drive from Pensacola, Foley, and the sugar-white beaches of the Gulf Coast, this stunning 5-bedroom, 2-bath home in desirable Lillian Heights offers the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and coastal living. Nestled on nearly one-third of an acre, the property includes exclusive access to a private resident’s beach on Perdido Bay—just a quick stroll from your front door. Inside, you’ll find a true split floor plan with the bright and spacious secondary bedrooms tucked away on one side of the home, offering privacy from the serene primary suite. Recent upgrades—including a brand-new roof, HVAC system, hot water heater, flooring, trim, and decks—mean all that’s left to do is move in and enjoy. Love the water? You’re only 5 minutes from the Lillian Boat Launch, making this an ideal spot for boating enthusiasts. Whether it’s a quiet evening on the bay or a short trip to nearby beaches, this home puts it all within reach. Don’t miss your chance to make coastal living a reality—schedule your showing today and be ready to spend next summer at the bay!Buyer to verify all information during due diligence. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

19. 2025-10-01
    listed $294,450 Active 1244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1244 chars)

    Just a short drive from Pensacola, Foley, and the sugar-white beaches of the Gulf Coast, this stunning 5-bedroom, 2-bath home in desirable Lillian Heights offers the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and coastal living. Nestled on nearly one-third of an acre, the property includes exclusive access to a private resident’s beach on Perdido Bay—just a quick stroll from your front door. Inside, you’ll find a true split floor plan with the bright and spacious secondary bedrooms tucked away on one side of the home, offering privacy from the serene primary suite. Recent upgrades—including a brand-new roof, HVAC system, hot water heater, flooring, trim, and decks—mean all that’s left to do is move in and enjoy. Love the water? You’re only 5 minutes from the Lillian Boat Launch, making this an ideal spot for boating enthusiasts. Whether it’s a quiet evening on the bay or a short trip to nearby beaches, this home puts it all within reach. Don’t miss your chance to make coastal living a reality—schedule your showing today and be ready to spend next summer at the bay!Buyer to verify all information during due diligence. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

20. 2025-07-01
    historical
21. 2025-06-08
    price $360,000
22. 2025-05-24
    price $370,000
23. 2025-05-24
    price $370,000
24. 2025-04-21
    status Active
25. 2024-11-27
    price $377,900
26. 2024-11-27
    price $377,900
27. 2024-10-27
    price $392,900
28. 2024-10-27
    price $392,900
29. 2024-08-04
    listed $399,900 Active
30. 2024-07-29
    listed $377,900 Active
31. 2024-07-29
    listed $377,900 Active
32. 2024-07-29
    listed $399,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $655 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,148 · $96/mo
• Expected delta: +$492/yr (+$41/mo · 75.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,145
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,679
• − Property taxes: −$655
• − Insurance: −$2,197
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,852
• − Management: −$1,852
• − Depreciation: −$8,143
• Taxable loss: −$7,231
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,736
• After-tax cash flow: $-446/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

Livability — Lillian

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #97
• US rank: #11371

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lillian, AL
• City population: 6,152
• Population (ZIP): 6,152

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Italian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.45%
• Current HPI: 285.5902
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-24.7% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $284,450 BCAR
• 2025-10-01 Listed $294,450 BCAR
• 2025-07-01 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2025-06-08 Price Changed $360,000 BCAR
• 2025-05-24 Price Changed $370,000 BCAR
• 2025-05-24 Price Changed $370,000 PARMLS
• 2025-04-21 Relisted — BCAR
• 2024-11-27 Price Changed $377,900 PARMLS
• 2024-11-27 Price Changed $377,900 BCAR
• 2024-10-27 Price Changed $392,900 PARMLS
• 2024-10-27 Price Changed $392,900 BCAR
• 2024-08-04 Listed $399,900 PARMLS
• 2024-07-29 Listed $399,900 BCAR
• 2024-07-29 Listed $377,900 WAMLS
• 2024-07-29 Listed $377,900 BCAR

Property tax history

+19.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $655 · +385.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.