5 Sherman Ave · Hampton Bays, NY 11946

$599,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 648 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 86 Days on market

Built 1991 6,098 sqft lot $924/sqft · at area comps Est $617k · at est. ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your perfect Hamptons retreat in the heart of Hampton Bays. This charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offers the ideal blend of comfort, convenience, and coastal living. Tucked away on a quiet street just moments from the water, this property is perfect as a year-round residence, weekend escape, or investment opportunity. Inside, you’ll find a bright and inviting layout filled with natural light, a cozy living area, and an updated kitchen with ample cabinetry. Two well-proportioned bedrooms and a tastefully appointed full bath provide both comfort and functionality. The spacious yard had endless potential for entertaining, gardening, or simply unwinding after a day at the beach. A detached garage offers added storage, workspace, or future possibilities to make the space your own.

Key facts

• Quiet street
• Spacious yard
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• QUIET STREET
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS YARD
• DETACHED GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $599k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $599k).
• Recommended offer: $563k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 6.4% in Hampton Bays — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#551 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hampton Bays Union Free School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #434 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+16.1%/yr); 172 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,880/mo this rent would consume 62% of the median local household income ($134k/yr) (locally 199% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $168k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($563k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $563,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.77%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $616,703
• List price: $599,000
• Delta: -2.87%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $43,961
• Equity at exit: $89,313

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.02×
• Total profit: $338,237
• Equity at exit: $51,791

Cash invested: $167,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11946

• Home prices YoY: -20.3%
• Rents YoY: 16.1%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,880 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,141
• Tax from tax record: −$400 /mo · $4,794/yr
• Insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,445
• Net cashflow: $1,645

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,798

Max offer price $599,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $149,750
• Closing costs: $17,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
49 Fanning Ave Hampton Bays, NY	1.0	1.0	500	$12,000	$24.00	6d	1	1.16mi
52 Wauhope Rd Hampton Bays, NY	1.0	1.0	500	$20,000	$40.00	24d	1	1.22mi
62 Canoe Place Rd #627 Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.0	661	$4,500	$6.81	44d	1	1.35mi
49 Canoe Place Rd #212 Hampton Bays, NY	1.0	1.0	672	$3,700	$5.51	44d	1	1.39mi
164 W Montauk Hwy Hampton Bays, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	610	$4,195	$6.88	44d	1	1.42mi
129 Lamplight Cir Hampton Bays, NY	1.0	1.0	734	$3,245	$4.42	6d	12	1.44mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $599,000 Pending 86 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $599,000 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $599,000 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $599,000 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $599,000 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $599,000 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $599,000 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $599,000 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $599,000 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-05-18
    price $599,000 802-char remark

    Show marketing remark (802 chars)

    Welcome to your perfect Hamptons retreat in the heart of Hampton Bays. This charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offers the ideal blend of comfort, convenience, and coastal living. Tucked away on a quiet street just moments from the water, this property is perfect as a year-round residence, weekend escape, or investment opportunity. Inside, you’ll find a bright and inviting layout filled with natural light, a cozy living area, and an updated kitchen with ample cabinetry. Two well-proportioned bedrooms and a tastefully appointed full bath provide both comfort and functionality. The spacious yard had endless potential for entertaining, gardening, or simply unwinding after a day at the beach. A detached garage offers added storage, workspace, or future possibilities to make the space your own.

11. 2026-04-21
    price $649,000 802-char remark

    Show marketing remark (802 chars)

    Welcome to your perfect Hamptons retreat in the heart of Hampton Bays. This charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offers the ideal blend of comfort, convenience, and coastal living. Tucked away on a quiet street just moments from the water, this property is perfect as a year-round residence, weekend escape, or investment opportunity. Inside, you’ll find a bright and inviting layout filled with natural light, a cozy living area, and an updated kitchen with ample cabinetry. Two well-proportioned bedrooms and a tastefully appointed full bath provide both comfort and functionality. The spacious yard had endless potential for entertaining, gardening, or simply unwinding after a day at the beach. A detached garage offers added storage, workspace, or future possibilities to make the space your own.

12. 2026-03-18
    listed $675,000 Active 802-char remark

    Show marketing remark (802 chars)

    Welcome to your perfect Hamptons retreat in the heart of Hampton Bays. This charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offers the ideal blend of comfort, convenience, and coastal living. Tucked away on a quiet street just moments from the water, this property is perfect as a year-round residence, weekend escape, or investment opportunity. Inside, you’ll find a bright and inviting layout filled with natural light, a cozy living area, and an updated kitchen with ample cabinetry. Two well-proportioned bedrooms and a tastefully appointed full bath provide both comfort and functionality. The spacious yard had endless potential for entertaining, gardening, or simply unwinding after a day at the beach. A detached garage offers added storage, workspace, or future possibilities to make the space your own.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,794 · $400/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,459 · $622/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,665/yr (+$222/mo · 55.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $82,563
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,553
• − Property taxes: −$4,794
• − Insurance: −$2,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,605
• − Management: −$6,605
• − Depreciation: −$17,425
• Taxable income: $10,585
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,540
• After-tax cash flow: $17,200/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hampton Bays Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3613530
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $70,274
• Composite: 40.18/100
• National rank: #3788
• State rank: #434 of 590 in NY

Livability — Hampton Bays

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #551
• US rank: #9894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hampton Bays, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 15,819
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,819
• Household income: $133,918
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 199.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 13% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.82%
• Current HPI: 467.2466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 16.07%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-11.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $599,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $649,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Listed $675,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $4,794 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.