22 Deer Lake Rd · Cloverdale, MS 39120

$115,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Manufactured public records · 26 Days on market

Built 2006 8.58 ac lot $90/sqft · at area comps Est $115k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well-maintained 80' x 16' mobile home situated on approximately 8.58 acres of beautiful land, offering the perfect blend of privacy and convenience. The property features a mix of wooded areas and fruit trees in the backyard, creating a peaceful country setting. The home includes a spacious master bedroom and a large master bath complete with a garden tub and separate shower. The kitchen offers an abundance of cabinet space for excellent storage, and all kitchen appliances will remain with the home. Outdoor features include a 10' x 14' front deck and an expansive rear deck of approximately 800 square feet, with most of it covered--ideal for relaxing or entertaining. A 12' x 20' storage shed provides additional space for tools or equipment. Enjoy quiet country living while still being just a short drive from town, shopping, and restaurants. This property offers both space and convenience--don't miss this opportunity. All measurements and acreage are believed to be accurate but should be verified by the buyer prior to purchase.

Key facts

• Front deck
• Storage shed
• Wooded areas

Tags

• 8.58 ACRES
• WOODED AREAS
• FRUIT TREES
• FRONT DECK
• REAR DECK
• STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $448 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#321 in MS) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Natchez-Adams School District (town): math 8% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #114 of 130 in MS (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 283 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Adams County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $113,275 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.69%
• DSCR: 1.74
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $115,000
• List price: $115,000
• Delta: —
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22 Deer Lake Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,280 (0%)	0mo	$115,000	$90	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $9,840
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.40×
• Total profit: $45,095
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39120

• Active inventory: 283
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,425 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$27 /mo · $319/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $448

Break-even live

Break-even rent $858

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $513	-5% $480	+0% $448	+5% $415	+10% $383
Rent	-10% $335	-5% $392	+0% $448	+5% $504	+10% $560
Rate	-1.0pp $506	-0.5pp $477	base $448	+0.5pp $418	+1.0pp $388

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 1041-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1041 chars)

   Well-maintained 80' x 16' mobile home situated on approximately 8.58 acres of beautiful land, offering the perfect blend of privacy and convenience. The property features a mix of wooded areas and fruit trees in the backyard, creating a peaceful country setting. The home includes a spacious master bedroom and a large master bath complete with a garden tub and separate shower. The kitchen offers an abundance of cabinet space for excellent storage, and all kitchen appliances will remain with the home. Outdoor features include a 10' x 14' front deck and an expansive rear deck of approximately 800 square feet, with most of it covered--ideal for relaxing or entertaining. A 12' x 20' storage shed provides additional space for tools or equipment. Enjoy quiet country living while still being just a short drive from town, shopping, and restaurants. This property offers both space and convenience--don't miss this opportunity. All measurements and acreage are believed to be accurate but should be verified by the buyer prior to purchase.

2. 2026-04-10
   listed $115,000 Active 1041-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1041 chars)

   Well-maintained 80' x 16' mobile home situated on approximately 8.58 acres of beautiful land, offering the perfect blend of privacy and convenience. The property features a mix of wooded areas and fruit trees in the backyard, creating a peaceful country setting. The home includes a spacious master bedroom and a large master bath complete with a garden tub and separate shower. The kitchen offers an abundance of cabinet space for excellent storage, and all kitchen appliances will remain with the home. Outdoor features include a 10' x 14' front deck and an expansive rear deck of approximately 800 square feet, with most of it covered--ideal for relaxing or entertaining. A 12' x 20' storage shed provides additional space for tools or equipment. Enjoy quiet country living while still being just a short drive from town, shopping, and restaurants. This property offers both space and convenience--don't miss this opportunity. All measurements and acreage are believed to be accurate but should be verified by the buyer prior to purchase.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $319 · $27/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $909 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: +$590/yr (+$49/mo · 184.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,095
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$319
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,368
• − Management: −$1,368
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $3,679
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$883
• After-tax cash flow: $4,492/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Natchez-Adams School District
• NCES district ID: 2803030
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $28,288
• Composite: 10.41/100
• National rank: #9785
• State rank: #114 of 130 in MS

Livability — Cloverdale

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #321
• US rank: #23944

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D- Housing F Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 29,212

Population outlook (Adams County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,614 people
• By 2030: 27,405 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 24,914 · -12.9%
• By 2050: 22,554 · -21.2%
• By 2075: 17,096 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 12,156 · -57.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% White 37% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Adams

• 2024 margin: D (+13.9) · D 56.5% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: 15.6pp · 2024: 13.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.9 2020: D+16.1 2016: D+14.7 2012: D+18.0 2008: D+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.67%
• Current HPI: 112.2371
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-04-10 Listed $115,000 MLSU

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2019): $319 · +7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.