533 Ideal Cir · West Tawakoni, TX 75474

$230,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,760 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1971 0.33 ac lot $83/sqft · 50% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Investment opportunity on TWO lake-front lots * * Wanting a weekend lake retreat or everyday lake-front home? This spacious home is perfect for any and all renovation ideas. The home features 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths, 3 living areas, and built in dry bar. The attached, 2-car garage has 3 additional storage rooms. Ample space to bring your projects and hobbies. Cul-de-sac neighborhood and an approximated 150 ft fishing dock with beautiful lake views. Sold AS-IS * *

Key facts

• Fishing dock
• Lake views
• Lake front lots

Tags

• LAKE FRONT LOTS
• FISHING DOCK
• CUL DE SAC NEIGHBORHOOD
• LAKE VIEWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Waterfront: Lakefront on Lake Tawakoni; dock permitted; Lot is less than 0.5 acre (about 0.326 acre); Parcel number 49932
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash; Loan type treated as clear; No second mortgage indicated
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Concrete parking; Attached 2-car garage; No covered or carport spaces listed
• Security: No specific security features listed
• Utilities: Co-op electric; No municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Attached property; Built in 1971; Entry level and rooms on one level
• Construction: Pillar/post/pier foundation; Preowned construction
• Exterior features: Dock; Water/lake view; Waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (primary bedroom on main level)
• Flooring: No flooring information listed
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Window unit(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Built-in features; Dry bar; One-level floorplan; Five total rooms; Three living areas; One dining area
• Laundry & utility: No specific laundry details listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-49 ($-587/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (3.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (13.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.6% in West Tawakoni — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,337 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Quinlan ISD (rural): math 27% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #610 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: D C Cannon El (765 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 60% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 335 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,829 (13.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.91%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $518,301
• List price: $230,000
• Delta: -55.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
533 Ideal Cir	0.00mi	4/2.0	3,140 (+14%)	1mo	$230,000	$73	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.90×
• Total profit: $122,202
• Equity at exit: $207,202

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.63×
• Total profit: $362,422
• Equity at exit: $446,839

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75474

• Home prices YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 335
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,998 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$326 /mo · $3,907/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-49

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,060

Max offer price $221,359

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8644 Dustin Dr Quinlan, TX	3.0	2.0	2356	$1,600	$0.68	1d	1	0.80mi
104 Perch Dr Quinlan, TX	3.0	2.5	2082	$1,795	$0.86	1d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 464-char remark
2. 2026-04-27
   listed $230,000 Active 464-char remark
3. 2021-05-28
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,907 · $326/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,209 · $351/mo
• Expected delta: +$302/yr (+$25/mo · 7.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,979
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$3,907
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,918
• − Management: −$1,918
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$4,489
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,077
• After-tax cash flow: $490/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Quinlan ISD
• NCES district ID: 4836240
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $45,461
• Composite: 26.16/100
• National rank: #7271
• State rank: #610 of 826 in TX

Livability — West Tawakoni

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1337
• US rank: #23022

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hunt County · 71,969 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,671
• Household income: $64,103
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 181.0

Population outlook (Hunt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,090 people
• By 2030: 100,452 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 106,544 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 111,218 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 121,695 · +25.3%
• By 2100: 123,683 · +27.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 8% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hunt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.5) · D 21.9% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -55.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.5 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 33.95%
• Current HPI: 484.21
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2026-05-12 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $230,000 NTREIS
• 2021-05-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,907 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.