1963 Green Hill Dr · Canyon Lake, TX 78133

$324,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,328 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 314 Days on market

Built 2023 9,104 sqft lot $140/sqft · 35% below area Est $513k · 37% under $2/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

THIS BEATUIFUL CONTEMPORARY MODERN 3 BEDROOM TWO & HALF BATH W/ TWO LIVING AREAS IS SO SPACIOUS 2375 SQ.FT. THIS HOME WOULD MAKE AN AWESOME FOREVER HOME OR AN INVESTMENT THIS HOME ALLOWS AIRBNB THAT SLEEPS 12 NO PROBLEM. JUST MINTUES FROM THE BOAT RAMP & LAKE LOTS OF NEIGHBORHOOD AMENITIES. THIS HOME HAS MORE POTENTIAL TO ADD UPGRADES TURN THE ROOFTOP INTO AN OUTDOOR PATIO W/ A 360 CANYON VIEW . HOME AS BEEN INSTALLED W/ THE ELEC NEEDED FOR A HOTTUB ON THE OUTSIDE PAT. IO. ENJOY THE OUTDOOR TURF FOR YOUR FAMILY BBQ GATHERINGS. MUST SEE THIS HOME TO APPRECIATE.

Key facts

• Two living areas
• 360 canyon view
• Installed for hottub

Tags

• TWO LIVING AREAS
• BOAT RAMP
• OUTDOOR PATIO
• 360 CANYON VIEW
• INSTALLED FOR HOTTUB
• OUTDOOR TURF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-392 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (21.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (23.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $249k (23.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.2% in Canyon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#534 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Startzville El (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 465 students, 68% FRL); Mt Valley Middle (math 55% / reading 51%, grade C+, #281 of 1,662 statewide, top 18%, 808 students, 49% FRL); Canyon Lake H S (math 46% / reading 56%, grade D+, #482 of 1,632 statewide, top 30%, 1,038 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 31% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 1029 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 314 days — a 12% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask is 11718% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $248,640 (23.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 314 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.17%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $512,677
• List price: $324,999
• Delta: -36.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
435 Carpenter Dr	0.33mi	3/3.0	2,520 (+8%)	3mo	$649,000	$258	64
1107 Rip Jay	0.48mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,310 (-1%)	13mo	$299,900	$130	54
1503 Lakeview	0.42mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,035 (-13%)	2mo	$359,000	$176	50
1126 Glenn	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,016 (-13%)	6mo	$229,900	$114	40
877 Glenn Dr	0.68mi	3/3.5	2,636 (+13%)	11mo	$1,125,000	$427	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-84,813
• Equity at exit: $48,458

10-year hold

• IRR: -47.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.47×
• Total profit: $-133,735
• Equity at exit: $28,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78133

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 1029
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,486 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$515 /mo · $6,174/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$2
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$522
• Net cashflow: $-392

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,983

Max offer price $255,748

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-208	-5% $-300	+0% $-392	+5% $-484	+10% $-576
Rent	-10% $-588	-5% $-490	+0% $-392	+5% $-294	+10% $-196
Rate	-1.0pp $-228	-0.5pp $-309	base $-392	+0.5pp $-476	+1.0pp $-562

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2059 Glenn Dr Canyon Lake, TX	2.0	2.5	2016	$2,750	$1.36	25d	1	0.34mi
693 Riviera Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1776	$2,995	$1.69	45d	1	0.71mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $2 · $24/yr

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $324,999 Active 314 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $324,999 Active 311 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $324,999 Active 310 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $324,999 Active 309 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $324,999 Active 308 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $324,999 Active 306 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $324,999 Price Change 302 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $324,999 Price Change 301 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $324,999 Price Change 300 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $324,999 Price Change 297 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $324,999 Price Change 296 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $324,999 Price Change 295 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $324,999 Price Change 294 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    pricestatus $324,999 Price Change 293 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $359,999 Active 293 DOM
16. 2025-11-22
    listed $2,750
17. 2025-11-07
    price $359,999 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    THIS BEATUIFUL CONTEMPORARY MODERN 3 BEDROOM TWO & HALF BATH W/ TWO LIVING AREAS IS SO SPACIOUS 2375 SQ.FT. THIS HOME WOULD MAKE AN AWESOME FOREVER HOME OR AN INVESTMENT THIS HOME ALLOWS AIRBNB THAT SLEEPS 12 NO PROBLEM. JUST MINTUES FROM THE BOAT RAMP & LAKE LOTS OF NEIGHBORHOOD AMENITIES. THIS HOME HAS MORE POTENTIAL TO ADD UPGRADES TURN THE ROOFTOP INTO AN OUTDOOR PATIO W/ A 360 CANYON VIEW . HOME AS BEEN INSTALLED W/ THE ELEC NEEDED FOR A HOTTUB ON THE OUTSIDE PAT. IO. ENJOY THE OUTDOOR TURF FOR YOUR FAMILY BBQ GATHERINGS. MUST SEE THIS HOME TO APPRECIATE.

18. 2025-10-30
    price $349,999 599-char remark

    Show marketing remark (599 chars)

    THIS BEATUIFUL CONTEMPORARY MODERN 3 BEDROOM TWO & HALF BATH W/ TWO LIVING AREAS IS SO SPACIOUS 2375 SQ. FT. THIS HOME WOULD MAKE AN AWESOME FOREVER HOME OR AN INVESTMENT THIS HOME ALLOWS AIRBNB THAT SLEEPS 12 NO PROBLEM. JUST MINTUES FROM THE BOAT RAMP & LAKE LOTS OF NEIGHBORHOOD AMENITIES. THIS HOME HAS MORE POTENTIAL TO ADD UPGRADES TURN THE ROOFTOP INTO AN OUTDOOR PATIO W/ A 360 CANYON VIEW . HOME AS BEEN INSTALLED W/ THE ELEC NEEDED FOR A HOTTUB ON THE OUTSIDE PAT. IO. ENJOY THE OUTDOOR TURF FOR YOUR FAMILY BBQ GATHERINGS. MUST SEE THIS HOME TO APPRECIATE. Agent Only Remarks:

19. 2025-10-27
    price $349,999 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    THIS BEATUIFUL CONTEMPORARY MODERN 3 BEDROOM TWO & HALF BATH W/ TWO LIVING AREAS IS SO SPACIOUS 2375 SQ.FT. THIS HOME WOULD MAKE AN AWESOME FOREVER HOME OR AN INVESTMENT THIS HOME ALLOWS AIRBNB THAT SLEEPS 12 NO PROBLEM. JUST MINTUES FROM THE BOAT RAMP & LAKE LOTS OF NEIGHBORHOOD AMENITIES. THIS HOME HAS MORE POTENTIAL TO ADD UPGRADES TURN THE ROOFTOP INTO AN OUTDOOR PATIO W/ A 360 CANYON VIEW . HOME AS BEEN INSTALLED W/ THE ELEC NEEDED FOR A HOTTUB ON THE OUTSIDE PAT. IO. ENJOY THE OUTDOOR TURF FOR YOUR FAMILY BBQ GATHERINGS. MUST SEE THIS HOME TO APPRECIATE.

20. 2025-10-05
    historical $2,750
21. 2025-09-21
    price $2,750
22. 2025-09-20
    listed $2,600
23. 2025-08-11
    listed $459,999 New 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    THIS BEATUIFUL CONTEMPORARY MODERN 3 BEDROOM TWO & HALF BATH W/ TWO LIVING AREAS IS SO SPACIOUS 2375 SQ.FT. THIS HOME WOULD MAKE AN AWESOME FOREVER HOME OR AN INVESTMENT THIS HOME ALLOWS AIRBNB THAT SLEEPS 12 NO PROBLEM. JUST MINTUES FROM THE BOAT RAMP & LAKE LOTS OF NEIGHBORHOOD AMENITIES. THIS HOME HAS MORE POTENTIAL TO ADD UPGRADES TURN THE ROOFTOP INTO AN OUTDOOR PATIO W/ A 360 CANYON VIEW . HOME AS BEEN INSTALLED W/ THE ELEC NEEDED FOR A HOTTUB ON THE OUTSIDE PAT. IO. ENJOY THE OUTDOOR TURF FOR YOUR FAMILY BBQ GATHERINGS. MUST SEE THIS HOME TO APPRECIATE.

24. 2025-08-01
    listed $459,999 Active 599-char remark

    Show marketing remark (599 chars)

    THIS BEATUIFUL CONTEMPORARY MODERN 3 BEDROOM TWO & HALF BATH W/ TWO LIVING AREAS IS SO SPACIOUS 2375 SQ. FT. THIS HOME WOULD MAKE AN AWESOME FOREVER HOME OR AN INVESTMENT THIS HOME ALLOWS AIRBNB THAT SLEEPS 12 NO PROBLEM. JUST MINTUES FROM THE BOAT RAMP & LAKE LOTS OF NEIGHBORHOOD AMENITIES. THIS HOME HAS MORE POTENTIAL TO ADD UPGRADES TURN THE ROOFTOP INTO AN OUTDOOR PATIO W/ A 360 CANYON VIEW . HOME AS BEEN INSTALLED W/ THE ELEC NEEDED FOR A HOTTUB ON THE OUTSIDE PAT. IO. ENJOY THE OUTDOOR TURF FOR YOUR FAMILY BBQ GATHERINGS. MUST SEE THIS HOME TO APPRECIATE. Agent Only Remarks:

25. 2024-10-16
    historical $3,200
26. 2024-10-10
    historical
27. 2024-10-10
    historical
28. 2024-10-09
    listed $3,200
29. 2024-10-08
    listed $395,000 New
30. 2024-09-05
    price $395,000
31. 2024-08-13
    listed $440,000 Active
32. 2023-10-06
    soldstatus Sold
33. 2023-10-06
    soldstatus
34. 2023-09-25
    status Pending
35. 2023-09-14
    historical Active Option
36. 2023-09-11
    price $359,900
37. 2023-09-08
    price $369,900
38. 2023-09-01
    price $371,900
39. 2023-08-22
    price $375,000
40. 2023-08-17
    price $350,000
41. 2023-08-16
    status Back on Market
42. 2023-07-17
    status Pending
43. 2023-07-11
    price $365,000
44. 2023-07-11
    price $375,000
45. 2023-07-10
    price $380,000
46. 2023-06-27
    price $395,000
47. 2023-05-31
    price $399,999
48. 2023-05-16
    price $415,000
49. 2023-05-04
    price $429,000
50. 2023-04-24
    price $439,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,174 · $515/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,174 · $515/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,837
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$6,174
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,387
• − Management: −$2,387
• − HOA: −$24
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$10,420
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,501
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,203/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canyon Lake

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #534
• US rank: #10441

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canyon Lake, TX
• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 42,159
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,959
• Household income: $83,853
• Rent vs Own: 15.2% rent · 84.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,637 people
• By 2030: 199,911 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 249,436 · +42.0%
• By 2050: 299,430 · +70.5%
• By 2075: 423,857 · +141.3%
• By 2100: 512,048 · +191.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Comal

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+54.1 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.36%
• Current HPI: 218.4633
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.20%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.4% since first listed

45 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-22 Listed for Rent $2,750 SABOR
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $359,999 LERA
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $349,999 CTXMLS
• 2025-10-27 Price Changed $349,999 LERA
• 2025-10-05 Rental Removed $2,750 SABOR
• 2025-09-21 Price Changed $2,750 SABOR
• 2025-09-20 Listed for Rent $2,600 SABOR
• 2025-08-11 Listed $459,999 LERA
• 2025-08-01 Listed $459,999 CTXMLS
• 2024-10-16 Rental Removed $3,200 SABOR
• 2024-10-10 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2024-10-10 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2024-10-09 Listed for Rent $3,200 SABOR
• 2024-10-08 Listed $395,000 LERA
• 2024-09-05 Price Changed $395,000 CTXMLS
• 2024-08-13 Listed $440,000 CTXMLS
• 2023-10-06 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2023-10-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-09-25 Pending — LERA
• 2023-09-14 Contingent — LERA
• 2023-09-11 Price Changed $359,900 LERA
• 2023-09-08 Price Changed $369,900 LERA
• 2023-09-01 Price Changed $371,900 LERA
• 2023-08-22 Price Changed $375,000 LERA
• 2023-08-17 Price Changed $350,000 LERA
• 2023-08-16 Relisted — LERA
• 2023-07-17 Pending — LERA
• 2023-07-11 Price Changed $365,000 LERA
• 2023-07-11 Price Changed $375,000 LERA
• 2023-07-10 Price Changed $380,000 LERA
• 2023-06-27 Price Changed $395,000 LERA
• 2023-05-31 Price Changed $399,999 LERA
• 2023-05-16 Price Changed $415,000 LERA
• 2023-05-04 Price Changed $429,000 LERA
• 2023-04-24 Price Changed $439,900 LERA
• 2023-04-15 Price Changed $459,000 LERA
• 2023-04-06 Price Changed $459,900 LERA
• 2023-04-05 Relisted — LERA
• 2023-01-24 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2022-12-19 Listed $447,688 LERA
• 2022-12-15 Relisted — LERA
• 2022-12-15 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2020-03-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-07-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-07-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+24.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $6,174 · -1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.