The Blue Jay II Plan · Fairchilds, TX 77461

$234,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,450 sqft · SingleFamily · 17 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The efficient Blue Jay II plan offers three bedrooms, two full baths, and a large open-concept kitchen, dining, and family room. The owner's suite is located at the rear of the home for maximum privacy, with an ensuite bathroom and many opportunities to customize it based on your individual preferences. Add a fireplace in the family room for a cozy space to entertain and unwind. A covered rear patio completes the Blue Jay II and creates a backyard perfect for all of your outdoor living space needs.

Key facts

• Open-concept kitchen
• Covered rear patio
• Owner's suite

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• ENSUITE BATHROOM
• COVERED REAR PATIO
• BACKYARD OUTDOOR LIVING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $234,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Natural gas available; Central air conditioning
• Home design: The Blue Jay II plan; New construction plan
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,450 (plan)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open living area (plan)

🏗️ New construction. The $234,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $272,600.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-212 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (6.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (6.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.2% in Fairchilds — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,450 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Needville ISD (rural): math 55% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #95 of 826 in TX (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Needville El (math 58% / reading 53%, grade C, #587 of 4,322 statewide, top 14%, 1,129 students, 49% FRL); Needville Middle (math 56% / reading 56%, grade B-, #234 of 1,662 statewide, top 14%, 819 students, 45% FRL); Needville H S (math 50% / reading 56%, grade C-, #437 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 1,067 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: 350 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,000 (6.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.29%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $272,600
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5207 Esperanza Terrace Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,411 (-3%)	8mo	$264,990	$188	58
5211 Esperanza Terrace Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,409 (-3%)	10mo	$259,990	$185	57
5207 Santa Cruz Bay	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,572 (+8%)	8mo	$294,990	$188	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-57,623
• Equity at exit: $40,646

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-67,290
• Equity at exit: $23,569

Cash invested: $76,328 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77461

• Home prices YoY: -22.9%
• Active inventory: 350
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,430
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$341 /mo · $4,089/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $-212

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,469

Max offer price $241,875

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-24	-5% $-118	+0% $-212	+5% $-307	+10% $-401
Rent	-10% $-386	-5% $-299	+0% $-212	+5% $-125	+10% $-39
Rate	-1.0pp $-75	-0.5pp $-143	base $-212	+0.5pp $-283	+1.0pp $-355

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,150
• Closing costs: $8,178
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4707 Pine Meadow Dr Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1594	$2,200	$1.38	4d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $234,990 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $234,990 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $234,990 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $234,990 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $234,990 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $234,990 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $234,990 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $234,990 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $234,990 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 503-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $234,990 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,270
• − Property taxes: −$4,089
• − Insurance: −$2,160
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,112
• − Management: −$2,112
• − Depreciation: −$7,930
• Taxable loss: −$7,274
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,746
• After-tax cash flow: $-802/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a great opportunity for an investor to add value through minor updates and improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Adding a fireplace in the family room — Creates a cozy space for entertaining and adds value
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Adding a fireplace in the family room — Creates a cozy space for entertaining and adds value ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Needville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832310
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,900
• Composite: 48.17/100
• National rank: #2176
• State rank: #95 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fairchilds

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1450
• US rank: #24783

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C+ Housing C Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,397

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (50%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 45% Two or more races 18% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.17%
• Current HPI: 324.3807
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B