The Blue Jay II Plan · Needville, TX 77461

$244,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,450 sqft · SingleFamily · 157 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The efficient Blue Jay II plan offers three bedrooms, two full baths, and a large open-concept kitchen, dining, and family room. The owner's suite is located at the rear of the home for maximum privacy, with an ensuite bathroom and many opportunities to customize it based on your individual preferences. Add a fireplace in the family room for a cozy space to entertain and unwind. A covered rear patio completes the Blue Jay II and creates a backyard perfect for all of your outdoor living space needs.

Key facts

• Open-concept kitchen
• Covered rear patio
• Owner's suite

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• ENSUITE BATHROOM
• COVERED REAR PATIO
• BACKYARD OUTDOOR LIVING

🏗️ New construction. The $244,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $259,388.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-55 ($-655/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (10.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.6% in Needville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#137 in TX, #3,992 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Needville ISD (rural): math 55% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #95 of 826 in TX (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Needville El (math 58% / reading 53%, grade C, #587 of 4,322 statewide, top 14%, 1,129 students, 49% FRL); Needville Middle (math 56% / reading 56%, grade B-, #234 of 1,662 statewide, top 14%, 819 students, 45% FRL); Needville H S (math 50% / reading 56%, grade C-, #437 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 1,067 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: 613 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $215,591 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.90%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $259,388
• List price: $244,990
• Delta: -5.55%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7523 Madrid Mnr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,411 (-3%)	1mo	$206,990	$147	62
7510 Madrid Mnr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,402 (-3%)	3mo	$220,990	$158	61
7602 Barcelona Spgs	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,411 (-3%)	2mo	$197,991	$140	60
7510 Barcelona Spgs	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,402 (-3%)	5mo	$203,990	$145	58
7511 Barcelona Spgs	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,411 (-3%)	5mo	$206,991	$147	56
5210 Santa Cruz Bay	0.64mi	3/2.5	1,635 (+13%)	3mo	$283,990	$174	44
7518 Barcelona Spgs	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+10%)	4mo	$216,990	$136	42
7514 Barcelona Spgs	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,266 (-13%)	6mo	$256,990	$203	42
7607 Barcelona Spgs	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+10%)	6mo	$239,990	$150	40
7507 Barcelona Spgs	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+10%)	5mo	$234,990	$147	39
5206 Santa Cruz Bay	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,655 (+14%)	4mo	$257,390	$156	38
5214 Santa Cruz Bay	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,655 (+14%)	4mo	$264,990	$160	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-45,474
• Equity at exit: $38,676

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-43,939
• Equity at exit: $22,427

Cash invested: $72,629 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 18 active · 27 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.2 mo (14%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $208,990 ($143/sqft)
• Median days on market: 48 d
• This list price: 72% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +25.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77461

• Home prices YoY: -22.9%
• Active inventory: 613
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,360
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$324 /mo · $3,891/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $-55

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,269

Max offer price $251,491

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $125	-5% $35	+0% $-55	+5% $-144	+10% $-234
Rent	-10% $-228	-5% $-141	+0% $-55	+5% $32	+10% $119
Rate	-1.0pp $76	-0.5pp $11	base $-55	+0.5pp $-122	+1.0pp $-190

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,847
• Closing costs: $7,782
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4707 Pine Meadow Dr Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1594	$2,200	$1.38	143d	1	1.20mi
4707 Pine Meadow Dr Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1594	$2,200	$1.38	0d	1	1.20mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $234,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Natural gas availableCentral air conditioning
• Home design: The Blue Jay II planNew construction plan
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,450 (plan)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open living area (plan)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $244,990 Active 157 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $244,990 Active 156 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $244,990 Active 155 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $244,990 Active 154 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $244,990 Active 153 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $244,990 Active 151 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $244,990 Active 150 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $244,990 Active 149 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $244,990 Active 148 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $244,990 Active 147 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $244,990 Active 146 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $244,990 Active 145 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $244,990 Active 144 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $244,990 Active 143 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $244,990 Active 142 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $244,990 Active 141 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $244,990 Active 140 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $244,990 Active 139 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $244,990 Active 138 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $244,990 Active 137 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $244,990 Active 136 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $244,990 Active 135 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $244,990 Active 134 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $244,990 Active 133 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $244,990 Active 132 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $244,990 Active 131 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $244,990 Active 130 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $244,990 Active 129 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $244,990 Active 128 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $244,990 Active 127 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $244,990 Active 126 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $244,990 Active 125 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $244,990 Active 124 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $244,990 Active 123 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $244,990 Active 122 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $244,990 Active 121 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $244,990 Active 120 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $244,990 Active 119 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $244,990 Active 118 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $244,990 Active 117 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $244,990 Active 116 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $244,990 Active 115 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $244,990 Active 114 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $244,990 Active 113 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $244,990 Active 112 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $244,990 Active 111 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $244,990 Active 110 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $244,990 Active 109 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $244,990 Active 108 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $244,990 Active 107 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,530
• − Property taxes: −$3,891
• − Insurance: −$1,297
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,112
• − Management: −$2,112
• − Depreciation: −$7,546
• Taxable loss: −$5,087
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,221
• After-tax cash flow: $566/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a great opportunity for an investor to add value through minor updates and improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Adding a fireplace in the family room — Creates a cozy space for entertaining and adds value ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Needville El C TX #587/4,322 Nat'l #9,513/41,679 Middle Needville J H B- TX #270/1,662 Nat'l #2,699/14,009 High Needville H S C- TX #437/1,632 Nat'l #4,893/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Needville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832310
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,900
• Composite: 48.17/100
• National rank: #2176
• State rank: #95 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Needville

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #137
• US rank: #3992

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend · 1,004,526 people
• Metro: Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX
• Population (ZIP): 12,397
• Household income: $89,360
• Rent vs Own: 23.4% rent · 76.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1% of renters

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (50%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 45% Two or more races 18% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% German/W. Germanic 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.17%
• Current HPI: 324.3807
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $234,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Natural gas availableCentral air conditioning
• Home design: The Blue Jay II planNew construction plan
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,450 (plan)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open living area (plan)